Tom Posted February 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z EPS snow mean... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 18Z NAM 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 18Z NAMBesides noting this is the long range NAM, it’s also worth noting the NAM is still in the middle of the storm for a majority of the members here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 18Z NAMSnow Day? Is Craig on the 24" hype train straight over omaha yet? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 DVN: “Monday through Wednesday...Latest suite of 12z run medium range models still suggest that a portion of a wave currently over the Pacific NW/western Canada will dig inland and phase, leading to a potentially significant system rolling northeastward through the Midwest. How far north or south and eventual strength remain a model variance from each other for more confidence, but the signal is still there. The 12z GFS and ECMWF pull the main sfc low further to the northwest than the GEM, with the low center track generally from south of Kansas City at midnight Monday night, to west of Chicago by midday Tuesday and then eyes on western lower MI by Tue night. The GFS is the furthest northwest of these main models, as well as a bit more progressive. Depending on dry air to overcome(which may make this model too fast with precip onset), the GFS spreads a wintry mix up acrs the area on Monday, and may be more rain/freezing rain and sleet monday night into early Tue, before turning to more accumulating snow with strong wind increase as Tuesday progresses. The 12z GFS is also not as deep with it`s sfc low as previous runs, but still induces a tight enough gradient for near advisory level winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. These increasing winds mixing in with back end of the system snow could still be quite a hazard. The 12z ECWMF is slower, a bit further south and colder than the GFS and would produce significant amounts of snow Monday night into Tuesday, with brisk winds by Tuesday afternoon as well. But it too, with an elevated warm draw may have a wintry mix for a time in the southern CWA Monday night into Tue morning. The 12z GEM is much further south than these other two solutions, and would mainly sweep head-line worthy snows acrs the area later Monday night through Tuesday. With potential upper jet patterns and phasing, wonder if the more southern solution would be more viable eventually. So besides the obvious low confidence still at this juncture for a system that far out, hard to get wrapped up in possible precip amounts and types yet...just keeping in mind that a possibly significant winter storm lurks out there in model-land.” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Besides noting this is the long range NAM, it’s also worth noting the NAM is still in the middle of the storm for a majority of the members here.Yes, my apologies. Should have included that. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Snow Day? Is Craig on the 24" hype train straight over omaha yet?Wasn't Craig, but I saw someone else claim that certain parts of Iowa will get up to 35". Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 Yes, my apologies. Should have included that.All good. Just wanted to make sure people weren’t confused! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 No significant changes on the 18z GFS. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 No significant changes on the 18z GFS.Wow for here that's.... Absolutely abysmal. Especially considering that includes the Sunday system as well. For this system, it's ZR/sleet followed by a bit of backside slop. Yuck. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 SLP was a bit stronger this run compared to the 12z. This run was actually a good bit juicer than the last one. Though that really doesn’t matter too much. The SLP difference is the only thing that matters, and it’s an 18z run so who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 8, 2019 Report Share Posted February 8, 2019 GFS FV3 is a bomb 985 in SE IA https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019020818&fh=72 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Going to be riding the edge here but still looks like decent snows even with the current track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Looks like it drops a few inches of snow IMBY Mon-nite before transitioning to a mix Tues. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 12z euro Shows 7" here. See my sig for why the odds favor this outcome, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 NAM with some more juice compared to 18Z Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Nam coming in really strong Down to 995 at hr 69 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Nam coming in really strong Down to 995 at hr 69Nice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Both events to 84 hr Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Looks like the NAM has snow, ice, and then a little snow again here. That’d be fun.... not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 That run is terrible. Glad it's the Nam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 That run is terrible. Glad it's the Nam Here's one for ya. 18z GEM = pound-town in Chicago Tues afternoon 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Now that is much better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 ICON total of both events (really cut back from 18Z) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 GFS appears more NW this run. Warm surge makes it further N. (atl least initially) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 GEM is way south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 GFS appears more NW this run. Warm surge makes it further N. (atl least initially)That was a weirdddd run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Both events- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 At HR 84, the GFS is in central Iowa. The GEM is in southern Indiana. Sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 18z euro, but only goes through hr 90. This is both events through hr90 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 At HR 84, the GFS is in central Iowa. The GEM is in southern Indiana. Sure. Too bad the GEM sucks, it has such nice ideas at times. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 ukie hr 72- (WAgons S) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 ^ this UKIE run would be ideal for many in IA.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 ^ this UKIE run would be ideal for many in IA.... eastern nebraska doesn't do too shabby either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Both events ukie 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersno Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Thanks JC. Keep posting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Fv3 both systems lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 9, 2019 Report Share Posted February 9, 2019 Its looking like a big mess here for SEMI. Ice could be a concern after a few inches of snowfall. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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