2/11 - 2/13 Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

12z EPS snow mean...

 

[Minny_Weather]

18Z NAM

[East Dubzz]

18Z NAM

Besides noting this is the long range NAM, it’s also worth noting the NAM is still in the middle of the storm for a majority of the members here.

[hlcater]

18Z NAM

Snow Day? Is Craig on the 24" hype train straight over omaha yet?

[East Dubzz]

DVN:

 

“Monday through Wednesday...Latest suite of 12z run medium range models still suggest that a portion of a wave currently over the Pacific NW/western Canada will dig inland and phase, leading to a potentially significant system rolling northeastward through the Midwest. How far north or south and eventual strength remain a model variance from each other for more confidence, but the signal is still there. The 12z GFS and ECMWF pull the main sfc low further to the northwest than the GEM, with the low center track generally from south of Kansas City at midnight Monday night, to west of Chicago by midday Tuesday and then eyes on western lower MI by Tue night. The GFS is the furthest northwest of these main models, as well as a bit more progressive. Depending on dry air to overcome(which may make this model too fast with precip onset), the GFS spreads a wintry mix up acrs the area on Monday, and may be more rain/freezing rain and sleet monday night into early Tue, before turning to more accumulating snow with strong wind increase as Tuesday progresses. The 12z GFS is also not as deep with it`s sfc low as previous runs, but still induces a tight enough gradient for near advisory level winds Tuesday afternoon and evening. These increasing winds mixing in with back end of the system snow could still be quite a hazard.

 

The 12z ECWMF is slower, a bit further south and colder than the GFS and would produce significant amounts of snow Monday night into Tuesday, with brisk winds by Tuesday afternoon as well. But it too, with an elevated warm draw may have a wintry mix for a time in the southern CWA Monday night into Tue morning. The 12z GEM is much further south than these other two solutions, and would mainly sweep head-line worthy snows acrs the area later Monday night through Tuesday. With potential upper jet patterns and phasing, wonder if the more southern solution would be more viable eventually. So besides the obvious low confidence still at this juncture for a system that far out, hard to get wrapped up in possible precip amounts and types yet...just keeping in mind that a possibly significant winter storm lurks out there in model-land.”

[Minny_Weather]

Besides noting this is the long range NAM, it’s also worth noting the NAM is still in the middle of the storm for a majority of the members here.

Yes, my apologies. Should have included that.

[Minny_Weather]

Snow Day? Is Craig on the 24" hype train straight over omaha yet?

Wasn't Craig, but I saw someone else claim that certain parts of Iowa will get up to 35".

[East Dubzz]

Yes, my apologies. Should have included that.

All good. Just wanted to make sure people weren’t confused!

[hlcater]

No significant changes on the 18z GFS.

 

[Minny_Weather]

No significant changes on the 18z GFS.

Wow for here that's.... Absolutely abysmal. Especially considering that includes the Sunday system as well. For this system, it's ZR/sleet followed by a bit of backside slop. Yuck.

[East Dubzz]

SLP was a bit stronger this run compared to the 12z. This run was actually a good bit juicer than the last one. Though that really doesn’t matter too much. The SLP difference is the only thing that matters, and it’s an 18z run so who knows.

[Money]

GFS FV3 is a bomb

 

985 in SE IA

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2019020818&fh=72

[Tony]

Going to be riding the edge here but still looks like decent snows even with the current track

[Niko]

Looks like it drops a few inches of snow IMBY Mon-nite before transitioning to a mix Tues.

[jaster220]

12z euro

 

Shows 7" here. See my sig for why the odds favor this outcome, lol

[Grizzcoat]

NAM  with some more juice compared to 18Z

[Money]

Nam coming in really strong

 

Down to 995 at hr 69

[East Dubzz]

Nam coming in really strong

 

Down to 995 at hr 69

Nice

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Both events to 84 hr

[East Dubzz]

Looks like the NAM has snow, ice, and then a little snow again here. That’d be fun.... not

[Tony]

That run is terrible. Glad it's the Nam

[jaster220]

That run is terrible. Glad it's the Nam

 

  Here's one for ya. 18z GEM = pound-town in Chicago Tues afternoon

 

[Tony]

Now that is much better

[Grizzcoat]

ICON total of both events (really cut back from 18Z)

[Grizzcoat]

GFS appears more NW this run. Warm surge makes it further N. (atl least initially)

[Money]

GEM is way south

[East Dubzz]

GFS appears more NW this run. Warm surge makes it further N. (atl least initially)

That was a weirdddd run.

[Grizzcoat]

Both events-

[East Dubzz]

At HR 84, the GFS is in central Iowa. The GEM is in southern Indiana.

 

Sure.

[jcwxguy]

18z euro, but only goes through hr 90. This is both events through hr90

[jaster220]

At HR 84, the GFS is in central Iowa. The GEM is in southern Indiana.

 

Sure.

 

Too bad the GEM sucks, it has such nice ideas at times.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie hr 72- (WAgons S)

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

^ this UKIE run would be ideal for many in IA....

[jcwxguy]

^ this UKIE run would be ideal for many in IA....

eastern nebraska doesn't do too shabby either

[jcwxguy]

Both events ukie

[Wintersno]

Thanks JC. Keep posting

[jcwxguy]

Fv3 both systems lol

[Niko]

Its looking like a big mess here for SEMI. Ice could be a concern after a few inches of snowfall.