February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF looks really cold at day 7 with a -PNA -NAO ridge bridge.  Incredible!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wrong part, but thanks.

[TT-SEA]

Friday afternoon...  low to mid 40s from Bellingham to Eugene.    Warmest day and then it starts cooling off by Saturday.

 

[Front Ranger]

Some of the more impressive lows this AM.

 

OLM: 5

Arlington: 3

Bremerton: 7

McChord: 8

Shelton: 11

Puyallup: 10

Port Angeles: 11

[TT-SEA]

Saturday afternoon... crazy temp pattern that day.   Mid 40s in Bellingham and mid to upper 30s around Seattle.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

What you think about the Mon-Tuesday time frame for Puget Sound?

 

I think at this point, heavy snow changing eventually to rain is likely for areas south of Seattle. 

 

For areas north of Seattle, lighter snow eventually changing to a mix is likely. Far north could stay all snow.

[snow_wizard]

We are going to have snow on the ground for a long time.  That in itself will make things colder than they would otherwise be.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday aftternoon... lots of upper 30s and low 40s from Bellingham to Eugene still on that day.   A pretty tepid cool down next weekend.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

We are going to have snow on the ground for a long time.  That in itself will make things colder than they would otherwise be.

 

 

Definitely colder than if we had bare ground.   But the ECMWF does a really a good job accounting for snow cover.   All those low 40s later in the week would probably be mid to upper 40s with no snow.

[Blizzard777]

Clear clean line this morning..currently right over me but fascinating as it moved in

24.8 and I’m about to loose the sun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saturday afternoon... crazy temp pattern that day.   Mid 40s in Bellingham and mid to upper 30s around Seattle.

 

 

 

Looks cool Sunday/Monday. Highs low 40s Metro/valley. Mid-30s up here. 

[TT-SEA]

Clear clean line this morning..currently right over me but fascinating as it moved in

24.8 and I’m about to loose the sun

 

 

Gorgeous pics!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday aftternoon... lots of upper 30s and low 40s from Bellingham to Eugene still on that day.   A pretty tepid cool down next weekend.

 

 

 

The average high for Eugene is about 52 by that point. It is a pretty significantly cool airmass.

[Front Ranger]

We are going to have snow on the ground for a long time.  That in itself will make things colder than they would otherwise be.

 

Even if things warm up rapidly over the next few days and all the snow melts by next weekend, this will still go down as one of the top Februaries of the past 100+ years for the Puget Sound region.

 

It's really hard to keep snow cover for more than a few days in the PNW lowlands, especially by mid February.

[MossMan]

Live for the day! Looking forward to many more inches before the warmup begins!

[TT-SEA]

By 10AM Tuesday the Euro thinks I'll have around 15 inches of snow.

 

 

Just compared to 00Z run from last night... way more snow from Bellingham northward and on Vancouver Island.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 7 at Bremerton appears to have tied their all-time record low from December 1990.

[TT-SEA]

The average high for Eugene is about 52 by that point. It is a pretty significantly cool airmass.

 

Its all cold compared to normal.   Very cold.

[MossMan]

Even if things warm up rapidly over the next few days and all the snow melts by next weekend, this will still go down as one of the top Februaries of the past 100+ years for the Puget Sound region.

 

It's really hard to keep snow cover for more than a few days in the PNW lowlands, especially by mid February.

I had snow cover for the last two weeks of February 2018.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall this run of the EURO was a touch better than the 00z, and very chilly IMO. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Very much expecting a sloppy mess early this week. Going to be interesting but I highly doubt it will be continual snow down in the swamp over the next three days. Very likely to be rain to rain snow mix at times. Fun!

[MossMan]

Just compared to 00Z run from last night... way more snow from Bellingham northward and on Vancouver Island.

Bryant is going to be one happy guy soon!

[Front Ranger]

I had snow cover for the last two weeks of February 2018.

 

You were a major exception. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Warmed up rapidly today (38) from my low of 14 this morning. Might hit close to 40 today if I am lucky. 

[Weiner Warrior]

A few flakes coming down in south seattle

[TT-SEA]

Bryant is going to be one happy guy soon!

 

 

I would love to see the people up north get pounded.   I am very certain its about to happen.   This northward shift is huge for them.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Bryant is going to be one happy guy soon!

I am happy for him as he deserves it considering how screwed he has been so far.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a pretty thick deck of mid level clouds has already moved over most the Puget Sound.

[wx_statman]

The 7 at Bremerton appears to have tied their all-time record low from December 1990.

 

Pretty incredible.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like a pretty thick deck of mid level clouds has already moved over most the Puget Sound.

WOW... Crystal clear here no clouds anywhere. NOT a single one at all.  This is looking northwest to north, towards Seattle.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 7 at Bremerton appears to have tied their all-time record low from December 1990.

Is this a February record?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

MASSIVE drought busting potential on the 12z EURO. Keep in mind this is all snow above 3000'.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2019021012/portland/ecmwf_tprecip_portland_41.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is this a February record?

 

According to the data on the Utah State site, it ties the all-time record at the location...Smashes the February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Day 10...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Fact is there will still be people getting snow now and then for probable the next week or more. Places above 500ft and away from the sound might do pretty good.

[HighlandExperience]

Warmed up rapidly today (38) from my low of 14 this morning. Might hit close to 40 today if I am lucky. 

 

Weird most stations in King County and even Bonny Lake still in the upper 20s and low 30s. 

[Skagit Weather]

Discussion from this morning. Seems like they're suggesting Seattle will be the transition line for snow/rain. Hopefully it stays down there, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it make it all the way up to just south of Bellingham.

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
956 AM PST Sun Feb 10 2019

.UPDATE /time period/...
Active weather is expected today through Tuesday as several storm
systems affect the area. A few adjustments have been made this
morning to mainly the POP, QPF, and Snow Amount grids.

A glance at water vapor imagery this morning depicts a quick
shortwave ridge traversing the area with a trough of low pressure
extending to our south along the Pacific coast into the Great
Basin vicinity. To our north we can spot our next winter weather
maker-a closed low migrating southward and currently located
across the southern BC coastline.

For today...this upper low is expected to track SE along the
Washington/BC border with associated sfc low traversing Vancouver
Is before cutting across the center of the CWA. This track will
allow the system to pick up moisture from the Pacific where it
will then spread it across western Washington from west to east
today, mainly in the form of snow. This will be a quick moving
system, affecting the coast and Olympic Peninsula this afternoon
before spreading east into the Sound vicinity this evening. A few
additional inches seem reasonable for most lowland locations,
however, potential for a heavier band of snow is possible-perhaps
across Snohomish County. Keep in mind snow bands are never easy to
predict so it is never easy to determine exactly who will see
enhanced snowfall. Overall most locations should see 1-3 inches
of new snow by Monday morning, with some mesoscale banding
allowing for up to 4 inches or so. Winter Weather Advisory for
this system remains in effect.

The next, stronger, system will move in quickly Monday late
morning bringing yet another round of winter weather. This system
is much trickier and details will continue to be refined with
upcoming forecast updates. The low responsible for this next event
is still over the Aleutian Islands as of this AFD update. 24 hours
from now it will set up shop west of Vancouver Is. This system
will do a better job than the previous several in advecting in
some modified Pacific air. This looks to potentially make for a
headache in determining precip type. After parsing thru some of
the 12z guidance, any precip that spreads north into the CWA
Monday morning looks to be snow. Then as warmer air moves in, a
weak warm nose looks to develop just above the sfc as sfc temps
also try to increase. This could make for a several hour period of
a snow, sleet, freezing rain mix from Olympia to Seattle south
Monday afternoon and evening. The questions that remain to be
answered include: how deep the warm nose is, how high do sfc temps
try to rise, and will there even be a noticeable warm nose vs
just an isothermal layer around 0C? After this potential period
of mixed precip, areas from Seattle south look to transition to a
rain/snow mix or a cold rain overnight Monday. Could cool down
enough early Tuesday to transition back to snow (no mix expected).
For areas north of the mix potential, snow is likely with high
accumulations possible, especially if a convergence zone develops.
Preliminary estimates range from 6-8 inches at this time with
higher amounts likely in isolated areas. A Winter Storm Watch
still covers this winter storm and will likely be upgraded this
afternoon. Wind looks to be less of a concern for both of these
winter events, but will likely be breezy.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Not sure if Jeff Renner retired or not, but this looks like one of those storms for Seattle where he says "1/2 mile away from the water should get sticking snow at the beginning, those closer to the water will get a mix.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For reference. The 5 coldest days last February at SLE did not even see a sub-40 high... Very hard to have sub-40s highs in the valley after about February 10th.

[Front Ranger]

Weird most stations in King County and even Bonny Lake still in the upper 20s and low 30s. 

 

SEA still at just 27.