February Snowfalls 2/10-2/12, Part III & IV

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM doing NAM things...

 

[TT-SEA]

Not sure how to deal with precip type in the models... the ICON shows the warm air punching up to just about Bellingham on Tuesday.  

 

Seems like this could be very snowy up there where all this moisture meets the outflow.

 

 

[kokaneekidz]

Some areas are getting historically cold this morning;

 

ARLINGTON CLEAR 3 0 87 CALM 29.86S

 

BREMERTON CLEAR 8 6 92 CALM 29.85S 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Seattle NWS overnight forecast discussion really highlights the freezing rain potential for the Monday night storm.

 

"With the exception to the Experimental FV3 solution that keeps conditions cold and gives insane amounts of snow to much of the

southern 2/3 of the area, the models show about 5-8 inches of snow in the interior north of Seattle and Shelton and change

precipitation south of there to a rain, or a freezing rain-snow-sleet mix. Will opt for the mixture given the cold air in place

and the tendency for models to mix it out too quickly. While snowfall amounts would be cut back to the south of Seattle in this

most likely scenario late Monday night into Tuesday, freezing precipitation can pose huge impacts to roadways and the power

grid. The mountains are expected to see large amounts of snow with this system. The winter storm watch will be changed to midday

Monday through Tuesday and will be segmented as appropriate to differentiate the frozen precipitation from the mixed frozen and freezing precipitation threats."

 

 

For South Sounders this just brought up fears and memories of 1996 and 2012 ice storms. Some trees in Puyallup still show the scars. I'll never forget the crazy crackling of the forests from 2012. I sure hope this low stays south!

 

Recently posted that an ice storm is certainly within the realm of possibility. Good to see NWS has learned from their previous forecast bust in 2012 and mentioned the chance for ice. Seattle gets a lot less ice than Portland, which leads may [correction: many] to conclude that ice is just a PDX thing. Wrong! We can still get ice in this area, particularly during major prolonged events such as the one now in progress.

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like today will.be my last chance at snow for awhile, maybe it will continue the theme of Rome snow than forecasted!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is a worst case scenario for PNW cold and snow lovers.

[TT-SEA]

Don't have closer view... but the 06Z FV3 was actually farther south than its 00Z run on Tuesday morning and showed lots of snow in Portland with the main moisture plume.   

 

 

 

 

Complete model chaos within 60 hours.   

[MossMan]

Perhaps boating season will start on Tuesday!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Only 20˚F at my place this morning. Breezy for most of the night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't have closer view... but the 06Z FV3 was actually farther south than its 00Z run on Tuesday morning and showed lots of snow in Portland with the main moisture plume.   

 

 

 

 

Complete model chaos within 60 hours.   

 

Seems to be some agreement on transitory upper level ridging ahead of the weekend trough. Could see a nice day on either Thursday or Friday. 

 

Just looked at the FV-3. It is WAY colder in this period. Really pretty cold for most of its run, until the end when it pumps a nice warm ridge over us to close the month. 

 

By the time we get to the end of the week, the ICON is pretty much the same as its earlier runs. The model chaos seems focused in the short term. The trends do not appear good for anyone, except maybe our VI friends.

[Jesse]

Temperatures at PDX PLUMMETING right around SUNRISE.

 

WOW.

 

Clear and 21 here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temperatures at PDX PLUMMETING right around SUNRISE.

 

WOW.

 

Clear and 21 here.

 

OUTSTANDING! 

 

22 currently here with some flurries as the remnants of the deformation band pass through. Low of 19. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I'm so close to both the red and the yellow lines on that NWS snow/ice map that its probably within the margin of error for both. So it's anything goes for me. My best guess is it means a crusty, icy mess as I'll get multiple wintry precipitation types. At least that's not quite as bad for accumulating on tree branches as pure ice. Though it's almost as bad as ice for evergreens, which of course are what most of the trees here are.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As warm as the ICON gets, it is back to a cold pattern by Friday morning...

 

[Kayla]

Don't have closer view... but the 06Z FV3 was actually farther south than its 00Z run on Tuesday morning and showed lots of snow in Portland with the main moisture plume.  

 

 

Complete model chaos within 60 hours.   

 

Portland has still got a shot. Good test for the new GFS??

 

[GHweatherChris]

Portland has still got a shot. Good test for the new GFS??

 

That thing has been so bad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Medford, Southern Oregon's largest city, picked up 1.8" of snow this morning.

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/ORE62%20at%20Poplar_pid3625.JPG?rand=1549813520570

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is cold from Friday-Monday.

[Jesse]

Medford in Southern Oregon picked up 1.8" of snow this morning.

Portland scores yet again while the sound is left high and dry this morning. UGH.

[MossMan]

ICON is cold from Friday-Monday.

Could mid week be our classic “brief warm up that every major extended cold blast has” ?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS about 6-12 hours slower to move the cold air back in...Slower moving front.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Skies clearing at sunrise.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could mid week be our classic “brief warm up that every major extended cold blast has” ?

 

Something like that. Not a huge warm up though.

[Esquimalt]

Tonight's low is starting to look pretty intense for a few hours here on many mesoscale models (the HRDPS just jumped on board). Perhaps our time to score has come

[ShawniganLake]

[ShawniganLake]

Tonight's low is starting to look pretty intense for a few hours here on many mesoscale models (the HRDPS just jumped on board). Perhaps our time to score has come

It does look good. Tough to trust the models when the low center has barely even started to develop. But whatever happens that is likely to be some high ratio stuff

[Esquimalt]

It does look good. Tough to trust the models when the low center has barely even started to develop. But whatever happens that is likely to be some high ratio stuff

How much would you bet for my area? 10ish cm?

[ShawniganLake]

14F here this morning. Coldest it’s been at this location since I moved here in February 2014. Impressive but kind of sad at the same time.

[wxmet]

I'm so close to both the red and the yellow lines on that NWS snow/ice map that its probably within the margin of error for both. So it's anything goes for me. My best guess is it means a crusty, icy mess as I'll get multiple wintry precipitation types. At least that's not quite as bad for accumulating on tree branches as pure ice. Though it's almost as bad as ice for evergreens, which of course are what most of the trees here are.

Good assumption. Downtown Seattle is going to be an absolute mess of potential snow, sleet, and ice.

[TT-SEA]

You can tell it was more windy on the ridge during the last snow event.

 

[ShawniganLake]

How much would you bet for my area? 10ish cm?

It’s going to depend on the track of the low. It could be pretty variable. Honestly anything from 2-6” seems reasonable

[Esquimalt]

It’s going to depend on the track of the low. It could be pretty variable. Honestly anything from 2-6” seems reasonable

Yeah the euro really likes that northern track which concerns me a little...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nothing really notable last night. Got down to 28 so we are getting close to 30 days with a below freezing temp.

 

Haven’t had a sub freezing high since Jan 13, 2017 which is likely going to extend well into next winter.

 

In the 30 years I have lived here, this winter is still well down into the bottom half of the rankings in both personal and south valley snow, cold, and notable weather events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS still chilly Friday into the weekend...No changes there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing really notable last night. Got down to 28 so we are getting close to 30 days with a below freezing temp.

 

In the 30 years I have lived here, this winter is still well down into the bottom half of the rankings in both personal and south valley snow, cold, and notable weather events.

 

Flurries being reported in Eugene. A light dusting per cams...

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/Beltline%20at%20River%20Rd_pid1869.JPG?rand=1549815378343

[TT-SEA]

Lots of rain in Portland tomorrow morning already...  hard to believe.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Flurries being reported in Eugene. A light dusting per cams...

 

http://tripcheck.com/RoadCams/cams/Beltline%20at%20River%20Rd_pid1869.JPG?rand=1549815378343

Must be shadowed here in Springfield. Just dry and the sun almost out. Seems to further illustrate how Eugene and Springfield are quite different weather-wise. Springfield much warmer and drier on average despite being so close.

[Esquimalt]

WRF shows heaviest snow on the north side of Victoria and throughout Whatcom county...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow bremerton hit 8! That might be a record for Feb? I think they hit 9 or ten in 89.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... WRF snow totals through tomorrow morning.