December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[westcoastexpat]

You have got to be one of the most pessimistic people on here. The progression of the GFS actually makes sense, especially when considering the MJO wave. Not saying it will verify, but there is a decent chance it will.

Let's not resort to name calling.

 

I do disagree with your use of "decent" though.

[snow_wizard]

Lol!! Yep our winter is always 10 days out year after year. Good news we will get a great setup for some winter weather around March or April when it does not really matter. Enjoy the up coming event. Looks kinda cold and the inversion looks exiting. We might actually get an inch or two of snow. We will be talking about this for years to come! --- woohoo!!

Posts like this just drive me insane! The operational GFS is actually good at day 6...the supposedly believable time frame.

 

Than having been said it worlds apart from the parallel which shows a massive inversion developing as a ridge moves in right over us. Thank goodness the models have moved away from the ominous mountain wave wind event they had been showing in previous runs. That made me more than a little bit nervous.

[westcoastexpat]

Amazingly the 18z GFS doesn't back off at all on the second cold wave. The progression actually looks reasonable. Could this be one of the rare times the GFS owns the other models?

As noted by many other posters, the GFS is the clear outlier with an unrealistic output in the GoA.

[snow_wizard]

Let's not resort to name calling.

 

I do disagree with your use of "decent" though.

Pessimistic isn't really name calling. That is especially true when people are talking about something supposedly being la la land when it's actually shown in less than a week.

[snow_wizard]

Ad noted by many other posters, the GFS is the clear outlier with an unrealistic output in the GoA.

I'm not so sure on this. I'm certainly not saying it will happen, but I see nothing that looks unrealistic.

[Front Ranger]

And the 18z GFS is orgasmic for WA for those keeping score.

 

Arctic air does make it south of Seattle by day 7, but there would be little snow verbatim. It's a very borderline setup, and it's the only model really still showing it.

 

Just keeping things realistic. The para, Euro, GEM all agree on the same general pattern developing. The UK model looks a little closer to the GFS at hour 120, I don't know what it would show beyond that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eagerly awaiting the ensembles

[snow_wizard]

If you want to get right down to it the GFS already shows the second wave being a lock at day 5.  It would be extraordinary to have it be so far off at that time frame, but it could happen.

 

[snow_wizard]

Arctic air does make it south of Seattle by day 7, but there would be little snow verbatim. It's a very borderline setup, and it's the only model really still showing it.

 

Just keeping things realistic. The para, Euro, GEM all agree on the same general pattern developing. The UK model looks a little closer to the GFS at hour 120, I don't know what it would show beyond that.

 

Fair enough.  I'm just making the point the pattern is already pretty at day 5 to day 6 on the 18z.  That is pretty close for such huge model discrepencies.  

[snow_wizard]

Eagerly awaiting the ensembles

 

Me too.  I think we still have a shot at this.  I can't understand people just categorically saying it's over.

[Snow]

 

If you want to get right down to it the GFS already shows the second wave being a lock at day 5. It would be extraordinary to have it be so far off at that time frame, but it could happen.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_126_500_vort_ht.gif

Yeah I agree. The GFS sees something the other models don't.

[richard mann]

.. I'd say the valid for Saturday GFS graphic that you've tacked in above, looks like the best possible chance of something in line with what you want. And with this, that might actually occur looked at otherwise. But from that point forward I've got, leastwise, things cold moving more eastward as they move more south. Initially more gradually.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Me too. I think we still have a shot at this. I can't understand people just categorically saying it's over.

Honestly I think it's a huge longshot, but I am still hoping.

[Front Ranger]

 

If you want to get right down to it the GFS already shows the second wave being a lock at day 5.  It would be extraordinary to have it be so far off at that time frame, but it could happen.

 

It's also the sort of pattern that could easily see the cold air hangup around the border. There isn't a strong forcing mechanism to cause it to push down.

 

I'm sure you're thinking I'm being overly negative, but I'm just calling it like I see it.

 

There is still time for the other models to flip again. Maybe 24 hours...I think the initial pattern progression will be resolved by then.

[Front Ranger]

Fair enough.  I'm just making the point the pattern is already pretty at day 5 to day 6 on the 18z.  That is pretty close for such huge model discrepencies.  

 

Yeah, the day 4-5 differences are highly unusual.

[Guest Winterdog]

Apparently the Seahawks saw the 18Z GFS.

[MossMan]

Me too. I think we still have a shot at this. I can't understand people just categorically saying it's over.

Yeah, even the NWS Seattle latest AFD talks about how the models are in such disarray for next weekend and will be little or no resolve until later next week!! Models showed things shoving east just two days ago and brought it right back on the next model cycle and back and forth...ect. Looking at how far the PNA is tanking I would be very surprised not to see something.

[Front Ranger]

Eagerly awaiting the ensembles

 

They're not great. They do support the general progression the operational shows, but the mean is definitely warmer and more progressive.

[snow_wizard]

It's also the sort of pattern that could easily see the cold air hangup around the border. There isn't a strong forcing mechanism to cause it to push down.

 

I'm sure you're thinking I'm being overly negative, but I'm just calling it like I see it.

 

There is still time for the other models to flip again. Maybe 24 hours...I think the initial pattern progression will be resolved by then.

I appreciate you pointing out the difficulties we still face. It's people who say it's over without a doubt that drive me nuts.

[Guest Winterdog]

Me too.  I think we still have a shot at this.  I can't understand people just categorically saying it's over.

The regular GFS was the last model to jump for the initial cold shot. It then caved to the Euro and others. I thought the 18Z would cave but it didn't. If the 0Z holds on then I might become a believer (not that anyone gives a rats butt).

[snow_wizard]

.. I'd say the valid for Saturday GFS graphic that you've tacked in above, looks like the best possible chance of something in line with what you want. And with this, that might actually occur looked at otherwise. But from that point forward I've got, leastwise, things cold moving more eastward as they move more south. Initially more gradually.

I'm glad to hear you think it's possible.

[snow_wizard]

The regular GFS was the last model to jump for the initial cold shot. It then caved to the Euro and others. I thought the 18Z would cave but it didn't. If the 0Z holds on then I might become a believer (not that anyone gives a rats butt).

The one thing the GFS has going for it is consistency over the past several runs. It has shown the exact same progression for a while now and actually keeps moving it up.

[richard mann]

I appreciate you pointing out the difficulties we still face. It's people who say it's over without a doubt that drive me nuts.

 

Being careful of course to appreciate that "it's", to some extent, not really even having begun yet. ...

[richard mann]

I'm glad to hear you think it's possible.

 

More concisely, it's cold's still "slowing" east, before having begun to move more south (and east.) here that's kept things "looking good" (?), for me.

[snow_wizard]

They're not great. They do support the general progression the operational shows, but the mean is definitely warmer and more progressive.

They're not that bad either. Quite a few decent members. All look way better than the parallel.

[Gradient Keeper]

Jeez, I fall asleep watching Football, wake up, have to go help the neighbor lady, come home and load up 18z and got the Holiday Toots in my pants.. Incredible.. Before we all laugh and say it's an outlier, is it though? Follows similar Op runs 500mb progression with shortwave out ahead of the block scooting down the AK/BC Coast... Very believable progression. We'll have to wait to see what the Ensembles show and then 00z tonight... and then..... AND THEN....... AND...... right, yes, I did get carried away there. I am not changing my probabiltiies however.

 

5% chance full on regional Arctic blast
10-15% Back door blast into Columbia Basin/Fraser/Gorge
50-60% Block pinched off/Ridge shove inland

[MikeBC]

I have something to tell you guys. The mood has been really swinging on this forum for a week or so. I see most of us need to move outside of the Pacific Northwest to experience real winter instead of hoping and waiting for it to come in all the time. It is not healthy for doing that way. I lived in Calgary, Alberta for one year. It snowed instead of raining at 95% of time in the winter. We cant look at the previous events to think we are still able to see winter weather that lasts more than a week. I figure you guys need to accept that we might not see winter weather as often as 10 years ago or so again. Just try to look at models less and be more realistic or move to somewhere snowier outside of the PNW. Admittedly, I am still hoping for the second wave but I need to discipline myself to be realistic and not to let the mood from this forum get me.

[snow_wizard]

I have something to tell you guys. The mood has been really swinging on this forum for a week or so. I see most of us need to move outside of the Pacific Northwest to experience real winter instead of hoping and waiting for it to come in all the time. It is not healthy for doing that way. I lived in Calgary, Alberta for one year. It snowed of raining at 95% of time in the winter. We cant look at the previous events to think we are still able to see winter weather that lasts more than a week. I figure you guys need to accept that we might not see winter weather as often as 10 years ago or so again. Just try to look at models less and be more realistic or move to somewhere snowier outside of the PNW. Admittedly, I am still hoping for the second wave but I need to discipline myself to be realistic and not to let the mood from this forum to get me.

You are totally correct.

 

My sanity has suffered from this climate.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS is going for lows of 15 to 22 for this area Tuesday night. Pretty chilly.

[richard mann]

They're not that bad either. Quite a few decent members. All look way better than the parallel.

One other element that I've looking at that might give you more solace—with emphasis, more current, if also along with where looking more ahead—is colder air's more sluggish movement over-all. Or perhaps better put, force of movement. Where looking ahead more, I'm estimating that this idea will be in place and continue, through the 9th.

[Snow]

One other element that I've looking at that might give you more solace—with emphasis, more current, if also along with where looking more ahead—is colder air's more sluggish movement over-all. Or perhaps better put, force of movement. Where looking ahead more, I'm estimating that this idea will be in place and continue, through the 9th.

Nice, so you think the reload will come and last through Jan. 9?

[luvssnow_spokane]

The NWS is going for lows of 15 to 22 for this area Tuesday night. Pretty chilly.

Looks cold:) -- you gonna make a snowman?

[westcoastexpat]

 

If you want to get right down to it the GFS already shows the second wave being a lock at day 5. It would be extraordinary to have it be so far off at that time frame, but it could happen.

 

But the European and Canadian models show no such "lock" in of bitter cold at day 5, so wouldn't it be extraordinary for both of those models to be "so far off at that time frame"?

 

As you often say, the side of the Euro is the side one would want to be on? Change of heart in that philosophy?

[westcoastexpat]

I appreciate you pointing out the difficulties we still face. It's people who say it's over without a doubt that drive me nuts.

I agree. The chance is there. But alarmist posts tend to hype up the more novice posters in here which leads to destructively (as well-documented the other day) when it does not pan out. Perhaps it's best to mention all probabilities when discussing an improbable event as opposed to selectively posting what one wants to see happen. A little objectivity will do everyone a favour!

[westcoastexpat]

The NWS is going for lows of 15 to 22 for this area Tuesday night. Pretty chilly.

Not historic but certainly significant. People will say "It's cold out today, isn't it Jim?" and go on with their day. But that sunshine and dry, crisp air is a beautiful thing. Moods will be high--hopefully in here, too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the 18z broke the meteostar.

[richard mann]

Nice, so you think the reload will come and last through Jan. 9?

 

No, more only that things cold where looked at more over-all, don't appear both to be moving, nor set to, less than more sluggishly through to then. And if, with this being a positive idea more generally. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I agree. The chance is there. But alarmist posts tend to hype up the more novice posters in here which leads to destructively (as well documented the other day) when it does not pan out. Perhaps it's best to mention all probabilities when discussing an improbable event as opposed to selectively posting what one wants to see happen. A little objectivity will do everyone a favour!

You are absolutely right. I might be a little negative but that is from years of watching this stuff play out and would be thrilled to be totally wrong. That being said, if every model was showing what the GFS was but the GFS was showing a non-second event would we be thinking it could be the correct model? No, we would call it an outlier and be on board for an artic event. We see what we want to and are often not very realistic. Yes, there is still hope ... Always hope and would never attack anyone for thinking there is or is not, as their opinion does not change my own or upset me. I have been the biggest believer of this second event just skeptical and feel that is healthy.

 

Now I am watching and hoping for a miracle!

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Ensembles 850 Temps weren't horrid I suppose. Ensemble mean dropped a bit.... still quite a few members -5c or colder.... but a lot of warm members... tons of room for improvement

[Snow]

No, more only that things cold where looked at more over-all, don't appear both to be moving, nor set to, less than more sluggishly through to then. And if, with this being a positive idea more generally.

Ok thanks.