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December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest


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I'm holding out some hope for a white New Years.  It's been a while.  I'll be surprised if the pattern is able to turn cold in time for Christmas though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 38

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I'm holding out some hope for a white New Years. It's been a while. I'll be surprised if the pattern is able to turn cold in time for Christmas though.

The turn around didn't take very long the last time, only two weeks!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Currently some light freezing rain falling and 30 degrees up here.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The CFS for January.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141201.201501.gif

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The CFS for January.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141201.201501.gif

 

Oh certainly not an El Nino pattern!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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PDX ends November with a -0.3 departure.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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CFS is showing torch thru Dec15th...then cold from then thru the end of the run (mid Jan).

 

Go CFS!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The next week reminds me of January 2001....

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Go CFS!

I used to follow the CFS quite a bit but it's forecast usually seemed all over the map as far as accuracy. Does anyone know if it predicted these events?  I was not following it in late summer/early fall. I guess I hope it can be accurate but based on my past experience it will only get the general theme/outcome correct but not the timing or duration. Basically, it will get cold/warm "around" the time frame it shows but not as extreme for as long.  MY hope is that it is correct with an overall theme not the details!! :)  -- I would love a true white Christmas with snow falling on Christmas day -- A post card white Christmas. Bring it!!

 

--- That being said... If I were a gambling man I would never bet on the CFS. ;)

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January 2001 was awful.

 

Be careful with trusting the CFS, guys. It was an absolute joke with its October and November forecasts for most of the continent. It had a scorching warm November for the midwest and look what happened.

 

Yes it was. And that is what the next week looks like. A meandering split flow pattern. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Good to see the December thread is off to a CFS-heavy start.

 

Would we want it any other way? 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Salem still only 32 as of 10am. 

 

Looks like the NWS has dropped the forecast high to 39 today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yes it was. And that is what the next week looks like. A meandering split flow pattern. 

Besides the utter lack of mountain snow, this week looks pretty enjoyable. Chilly and crisp for the next 3 days or so and things don't look too bad through the weekend. Obviously no indication of arctic air coming up, but it'd be pretty silly to expect that after what we've been through over the last few weeks.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 88"

2023-24: 3"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I'd kill for some NW flow right now.

 

I would actually take a December 2012 repeat. I had a white Christmas Eve that year.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Guest Winterdog

Still a winter wonderland here after a low of 16F. It's going to start melting today though. Not a bad November with seven lows in the teens! Currently 22F. That reading seems a bit cold since Arlington is showing 27F but I have three thermometers showing the same temp.

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Still a winter wonderland here after a low of 16F. It's going to start melting today though. Not a bad November with seven lows in the teens! Currently 22F. That reading seems a bit cold since Arlington is showing 27F but I have three thermometers showing the same temp.

How much snow did you end up getting?

 

You'll probably get into the mid 30's today, but with the dry air not much of your snow will melt. If you have more than an inch or two I doubt your snow melts till Thursday.

 

We only got 1/2" here at UW, but most of that is still there in the shade.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 88"

2023-24: 3"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Nelson Cruz! So excited for next year.

 

They are making a push for it. With Texas a mess, the A's trading away their best player, and the Angels still having a somewhat lackluster rotation, this could be our year.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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They are making a push for it. With Texas a mess, the A's trading away their best player, and the Angels still having a somewhat lackluster rotation, this could be our year.

Absolutely. The time is right to make a strong push while Cano and Felix are still elite players.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 88"

2023-24: 3"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Guest Winterdog

How much snow did you end up getting?

 

You'll probably get into the mid 30's today, but with the dry air not much of your snow will melt. If you have more than an inch or two I doubt your snow melts till Thursday.

 

We only got 1/2" here at UW, but most of that is still there in the shade.

I had around 3" total of wet snow. The snow has not melted at all off the trees or anywhere in the shade yet. Yeah if the clouds are kept at bay we should be good in the shade.
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Not sure I like the years, but it's got potential.

 

Baltimore got a sweet deal for him. 1 yr 8 mil. Plus they are going to be getting a compensatory pick since he rejected their qualifying offer.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Baltimore got a sweet deal for him. 1 yr 8 mil. Plus they are going to be getting a compensatory pick since he rejected their qualifying offer.

There are reports we had him all but signed for 2 years, 16 million last year but ownership nixed it. 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24747307/report-nelson-cruz-deal-with-mariners-rejected-by-ownership

 

Not a stretch to say they would have made a run in the playoffs last year with him instead of the black hole we had at DH.

 

38 at SEA, 35 at PDX  and 33 at BLI at Noon.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 88"

2023-24: 3"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Ice is starting to form in the fountain's pond on campus. The water's actually pretty deep so the ice is still thin but it was thick enough to not break when I threw some small rocks out on it. Love the sound of rocks skimming a cross a frozen pond.

 

The ground is still mostly covered in snow in the shade.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 88"

2023-24: 3"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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