December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Hopefully we get a nice Christmas present of lots of snow for the last week of December!

[stuffradio]

-I picked up a few inches of rain maybe—here where I am at the southernmost extent of the PNW—with this most recent more systemic activity.

 

".. Observations", "Discussions", more PNW focused.  

 

Don't you have a rain gauge?

[snow_wizard]

I'm holding out some hope for a white New Years.  It's been a while.  I'll be surprised if the pattern is able to turn cold in time for Christmas though.

[MossMan]

I'm holding out some hope for a white New Years. It's been a while. I'll be surprised if the pattern is able to turn cold in time for Christmas though.

The turn around didn't take very long the last time, only two weeks!

[MossMan]

Currently 19 degrees here this morning, hopefully a drop at sunrise as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently some light freezing rain falling and 30 degrees up here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS for January.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141201.201501.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Today makes the 9th low in the teens for Tacoma McChord AFB in the last 20 days. Pretty impressive.

[HighlandExperience]

Hopefully we get a nice Christmas present of lots of snow for the last week of December!

 

It would be nice if we can stay out of split flow hell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS for January.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141201.201501.gif

 

Oh certainly not an El Nino pattern!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX ends November with a -0.3 departure.

[westiztehbest]

CFS is showing torch thru Dec15th...then cold from then thru the end of the run (mid Jan).

[ShawniganLake]

CFS is showing torch thru Dec15th...then cold from then thru the end of the run (mid Jan).

Sounds like heaven to me. Wish the Cfs was a little bit dependable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is showing torch thru Dec15th...then cold from then thru the end of the run (mid Jan).

 

Go CFS!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The next week reminds me of January 2001....

[westcoastexpat]

January 2001 was awful.

 

Be careful with trusting the CFS, guys. It was an absolute joke with its October and November forecasts for most of the continent. It had a scorching warm November for the midwest and look what happened.

[luvssnow_seattle]

Go CFS!

I used to follow the CFS quite a bit but it's forecast usually seemed all over the map as far as accuracy. Does anyone know if it predicted these events?  I was not following it in late summer/early fall. I guess I hope it can be accurate but based on my past experience it will only get the general theme/outcome correct but not the timing or duration. Basically, it will get cold/warm "around" the time frame it shows but not as extreme for as long.  MY hope is that it is correct with an overall theme not the details!!  -- I would love a true white Christmas with snow falling on Christmas day -- A post card white Christmas. Bring it!!

 

--- That being said... If I were a gambling man I would never bet on the CFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 2001 was awful.

 

Be careful with trusting the CFS, guys. It was an absolute joke with its October and November forecasts for most of the continent. It had a scorching warm November for the midwest and look what happened.

 

Yes it was. And that is what the next week looks like. A meandering split flow pattern. 

[Deweydog]

Good to see the December thread is off to a CFS-heavy start.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good to see the December thread is off to a CFS-heavy start.

 

Would we want it any other way? 

[Snowman5678]

I bet the PNW gets a wicked snowstorm the last week of December into the first few days of January. Why you ask? Because I won't be here...and November 2010 happened when I left the PNW in the winter.  

 

Barely eeked out 19 for a low here this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem still only 32 as of 10am. 

 

Looks like the NWS has dropped the forecast high to 39 today. 

[bainbridgekid]

Yes it was. And that is what the next week looks like. A meandering split flow pattern. 

Besides the utter lack of mountain snow, this week looks pretty enjoyable. Chilly and crisp for the next 3 days or so and things don't look too bad through the weekend. Obviously no indication of arctic air coming up, but it'd be pretty silly to expect that after what we've been through over the last few weeks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd kill for some NW flow right now.

 

I would actually take a December 2012 repeat. I had a white Christmas Eve that year.

[Guest Winterdog]

Still a winter wonderland here after a low of 16F. It's going to start melting today though. Not a bad November with seven lows in the teens! Currently 22F. That reading seems a bit cold since Arlington is showing 27F but I have three thermometers showing the same temp.

[Deweydog]

I'd kill for some NW flow right now.

 

I would actually take a December 2012 repeat. I had a white Christmas Eve that year.

Homicidal maniac.

[bainbridgekid]

Nelson Cruz! So excited for next year.

[bainbridgekid]

Still a winter wonderland here after a low of 16F. It's going to start melting today though. Not a bad November with seven lows in the teens! Currently 22F. That reading seems a bit cold since Arlington is showing 27F but I have three thermometers showing the same temp.

How much snow did you end up getting?

 

You'll probably get into the mid 30's today, but with the dry air not much of your snow will melt. If you have more than an inch or two I doubt your snow melts till Thursday.

 

We only got 1/2" here at UW, but most of that is still there in the shade.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nelson Cruz! So excited for next year.

 

They are making a push for it. With Texas a mess, the A's trading away their best player, and the Angels still having a somewhat lackluster rotation, this could be our year.

[ShawniganLake]

They are making a push for it. With Texas a mess, the A's trading away their best player, and the Angels still having a somewhat lackluster rotation, this could be our year.

Canada is thankful for that.

[bainbridgekid]

They are making a push for it. With Texas a mess, the A's trading away their best player, and the Angels still having a somewhat lackluster rotation, this could be our year.

Absolutely. The time is right to make a strong push while Cano and Felix are still elite players.

[Guest Winterdog]

How much snow did you end up getting?

 

You'll probably get into the mid 30's today, but with the dry air not much of your snow will melt. If you have more than an inch or two I doubt your snow melts till Thursday.

 

We only got 1/2" here at UW, but most of that is still there in the shade.

I had around 3" total of wet snow. The snow has not melted at all off the trees or anywhere in the shade yet. Yeah if the clouds are kept at bay we should be good in the shade.

[BLI snowman]

Nelson Cruz! So excited for next year.

 

Not sure I like the years, but it's got potential.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure I like the years, but it's got potential.

 

Baltimore got a sweet deal for him. 1 yr 8 mil. Plus they are going to be getting a compensatory pick since he rejected their qualifying offer.

[Timmy]

Can someone post the Euro links they use?  I can't seem to find the classic one I am used to.

[Brennan]

Cano, Cruz, Seeger in the heart of the lineup. FINALLY.

[bainbridgekid]

Baltimore got a sweet deal for him. 1 yr 8 mil. Plus they are going to be getting a compensatory pick since he rejected their qualifying offer.

There are reports we had him all but signed for 2 years, 16 million last year but ownership nixed it. 

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24747307/report-nelson-cruz-deal-with-mariners-rejected-by-ownership

 

Not a stretch to say they would have made a run in the playoffs last year with him instead of the black hole we had at DH.

 

38 at SEA, 35 at PDX  and 33 at BLI at Noon.

[Jesse]

Only 29 out here currently after a low of 25. Good chance I score another sub-freezing high today. Would be my fourth this season so far.

[Deweydog]

They are making a push for it. With Texas a mess, the A's trading away their best player, and the Angels still having a somewhat lackluster rotation, this could be our year.

 

ALDS or bust!

[bainbridgekid]

Ice is starting to form in the fountain's pond on campus. The water's actually pretty deep so the ice is still thin but it was thick enough to not break when I threw some small rocks out on it. Love the sound of rocks skimming a cross a frozen pond.

 

The ground is still mostly covered in snow in the shade.

[Tyler Mode]

It's not often the skies clear after snow on the west side.

 

This image from yesterday clearly shows the snow on the NE side of the Olympics, near Vancouver BC, and the convergence zone near Seattle.  There was a dry slot between Bellingham and Seattle that I would be pissed to live in

 

For the full size version:

 

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2014_12_01_335&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA1&resolution=250m

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Weather/Snow-and-Cold-Late-November-20/i-2JNSmgH/0/L/t1.14334.USA1.143.250m-L.jpg

[Guest Winterdog]

Topped off at 32F today. I don't get much sun here after about 1pm so there is still a lot of snow-cover.

[TT-SEA]

Small area of clouds helped earlier in the day here... but now its melting snow even though the sun is going down.    Can't get any radiational cooling here now.    There is no benefit to the shaded areas.

[Deweydog]

Small area of clouds helped earlier in the day here... but now its melting snow even though the sun is going down.    Can't get any radiational cooling here now.    There is no benefit to the shaded areas.

 

Sounds horrific.  

[TT-SEA]

Sounds horrific.  

 

My son thinks it is!   His snow fort was solid as rock yesterday... this afternoon its all mushy.    The horrors of alto-stratus continue!

[Deweydog]

My son thinks it is!   His snow fort was solid as rock yesterday... this afternoon its all mushy.    The horrors of alto-stratus continue!

 

Take to the streets with bottles and rocks in protest!

[MossMan]

Topped off at 32F today. I don't get much sun here after about 1pm so there is still a lot of snow-cover.

Looks pretty much like my yard still!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today's CFS has an arctic blast on Christmas!

[MossMan]

Not a bad run, it was a great Thanksgiving day which was mostly dry, but warm gusty south winds. I love days like that. Then the Seahawks won. Then the rain turned to snow around 11pm on Friday night, woke up to 2" of snow on the ground Saturday morning with a temp that fell from 31 degrees at 7am to 21 degrees by 7pm. Had a low of 17 on Sunday morning, and the same this morning. Still only 30 at my house, haven't been above freezing since Friday evening. Most of my snow is still on the ground and in the trees, I like it!!!

[Jesse]

Only 30 out here today. 37 at PDX. Coldest highs of the season thus far for both locations.

 

Now it's clearing just in time for sunset. Should be another chilly night.

 

Great pattern for maintaining cold low level temps in the Gorge for most of this week. It will be interesting to see what happens when the next batch of precip moves in.