bud2380 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 That map is total snow though. Friday night into Saturday is more like 4-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Indeed it has Tony and coming in very juicy...6-11" totals for N IL...coming in line with what Skilling's map showed.Seems like the past 3 runs or so of the models are starting to catch up to the ggem qpf maps from a couple days ago. Maybe the ggem is onto something here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Gfs has about .4" for Iowa city. Right around .5" for ord not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 That map is total snow though. Friday night into Saturday is more like 4-7"I think we will be lucky to see an inch from the first wave, at least for NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like the snow ratios will be very high with this system once again. Showing solid .50-.60qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Your right Tony, models are coming in juicier for tonights 00z runs and following suit on what the GGEM was showing a couple days ago. I recall I posted a map showing 1.2"qpf or so (prob not happening). Would be nuts if that actually happens. We are still 60 hours out so there will still be adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Tommorow I think we have shot of 1-2 inches. Using NAM sim-reflectivity could be quite heavy around dinner. Still solid 6-10 inches by time it's done with both waves. I know tom wave very small but it could add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Using instantweathermaps it shows 6-7" for Chicago on Saturday. Could warrant a winter storm watch. Hopefully gem stays the course. I think I could get a winter wx advisory out of this for possibly 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM totals were kind of high but I could probably see the models coming in even a little wetter than what they are currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_total_precip_east_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Dangit Money, I was in the process of posting that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 sorry lol some images http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_10.png http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_11.png http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013000/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_12.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM rides the freezing line all the way to I-80/90 on this run. Going to be a wet snowfall, but that's kind of what I want. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM has been the warmest of all the model runs. We'll see what the Euro shows tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM has been the warmest of all the model runs. We'll see what the Euro shows tonight. So do you think there is a chance winter storm watches go out by tomorrow night? Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I like our chances for LOT to pull the trigger tomorrow to issue WSW during AFD pckg after 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Euro http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013000/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Intial slug of WAA precip may generate 2-4 inches in C IL/N IN Friday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 To bad it scoots east instead of wrapping around but still solid run of NAM with 6-10 inch band in far N MO/N-C IL/N IN/S MI. Heaviest would be south of Chicago but still 6-8 inches in with a little less towards border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Last 2 storms all have a solid NW trend in them. Don't see the next one being any dif. (Feb 4th-5th) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Would have some decent snow here right now based off radar returns, but it's all virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z NAM is solid hit still 6-8 inches in central and northern IL but looks like mainly coming from intial band tommorow as main wave scoots off to the east rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks weaker and more progressive with main wave but intial band makes up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Weak sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Weak sauce Yeah but snow amounts still add up almost similar to previous run but the intial WAA advection tommorow makes up for that with 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Liking the EURO above... NAM ok. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Chicago area is king this winter. Nice screw hole near me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah but snow amounts still add up almost similar to previous run but the intial WAA advection tommorow makes up for that with 12z NAM.Yep WAA looks nice just impossible to know where that will set up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks pretty impressive out in IA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks pretty impressive out in IA right now.Huge virga storm in iowa. Check out last hour in Ames. Overcast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Huge virga storm in iowa. Check out last hour in Ames. Overcast!!!Yeah pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Rip city outside right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS 12z painting 6-8" for Chicago thru 57hr. The 8-9" inch marker ain't too far from the city, though. EDIT: 6-10" swath across NC IL & N IL. 6-8 inches falls in 24 hours, which would fit WSW criteria. ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS bumped up qpf totals...winds howl NE off the Lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Best virga storm of my life! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 If GGEM/EURO show similar qpf as the GFS, I'm sure LOT will issue WSW for afternoon pckg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS Snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Coming down now. Won't be more than an inch tho, maybe half an inch if we get lucky. Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Had a nice burst move through. But it's almost already over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GGEM loading up the moisture...around .80qpf for ORD. GGEM also corrected colder this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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