January 29-February 2nd Winter Storm

[Tom]

18z GFS did come in a lot wetter...

 

 

[DominicR]

Probably could use 15:1 ratio for most of event so this is a solid 8-12 inches on 18z GFS and lake enhancement might be limited but always possible.

[Tom]

This is turning out to be one heck of a snowstorm!

[Tom]

Ya, temps in low/mid 20's I'd be safe to say 14:1 - 15:1 ratios are a good bet.  I don't see this being a wetter snow.

[tim the weatherman]

yep the it sounds that this could be a snowstorm over the weekend

[Geos]

8-10" for Chicagoland

 

[DominicR]

yep the it sounds that this could be a snowstorm over the weekend

 

Really?

[Tom]

I won't be surprised to see some decent LehS from this system for lakeside counties.

[Sciascia]

O'Hare's seasonal snow is at 48", right? I wonder what it will be a week from now. Could be a special 7 days beginning tomorrow night.

 

For reference only, 68.4" (1966-67) is #4 on the snowiest winters of all time list.

[DominicR]

Geos you going with 4-6 inches for Racine towards your area?

[Tom]

ORD is sitting at 48.2" officially...

[Geos]

I won't be surprised to see some decent LehS from this system for lakeside counties.

 

I don't know if Delta T's will be quite high enough...

 

Geos you going with 4-6 inches for Racine towards your area?

 

6-8" for my area for now.

[DominicR]

ORD is sitting at 48.2" officially...

 

Including what they got today?

[Tom]

No, prob got .3 today...so add that to the total..

[Madtown]

looks like 3" here for Sat. I did find it interesting that DVN MKX and ARX all hit  possible northward shift pretty hard. Not sure why as I don't see any reason for this to pull farther north than it already has.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

looks like 3" here for Sat. I did find it interesting that DVN MKX and ARX all hit  possible northward shift pretty hard. Not sure why as I don't see any reason for this to pull farther north than it already has.

 

If the PNA can make it to neutral or negative that might help, though that indice will hardly make or break the system.

[Tom]

Wow, Mike Caplan just showed widespread 12" totals, including Naperville and Chicago...8" mark to the border...

[DominicR]

Wow, Mike Caplan just showed widespread 12" totals, including Naperville and Chicago...8" mark to the border...

 

Just this system alone? I did see GFS beefed up pretty good.

[Tom]

My call ORD hits 10" from this...

 

Yes Dominick, just from this system...he said its looking bigger.

[Tom]

He also showed temps not going above 22F from I-80 on north so this snow is no way going to be wet...increase those snow ratios.

[DominicR]

My call ORD hits 10" from this...

 

Yes Dominick, just from this system...he said its looking bigger.

 

Why not a foot man? JK sounds good though.

[Tom]

Heck, if we can get some decent banding off the lake we can bump that up over 12"!

[DominicR]

Yeah post Mike snowfall map if u get snapshot of it.

[Tom]

I just saw it again, but didn't take a pic...it had 6" totals from the border to 12" down to Joliet, IL.  Peru, IL was in the 8-12" spot also.

[DominicR]

I just saw it again, but didn't take a pic...it had 6" totals from the border to 12" down to Joliet, IL.  Peru, IL was in the 8-12" spot also.

 

How about ORD.

[Tom]

ORD looked like 10-11" on Microcast...

[DominicR]

Skilling says 5-9 inches locally 10 inches.

[Tony]

This is turning into one heck of a snowstorm. I still go back to the GGEM about 3 days ago when it was showing all that qpf. I can honestly say that it it has been right on...so far.... as we have another 24 hrs to go but pretty confident at this point.

[DominicR]

Average from cbs, nbc, and abc is 8-10 inches across heart of Chicago...Skilling RPM

 

[tim the weatherman]

i am thinking that the heaviest snow will fall over the southren countires of the chicago area

[Trinomial]

I wonder what the chances are that the 00z runs continue with a northern shift...It seems possible that another 30 mile shift could happen in either direction.

[Geos]

If the PNA can make it to neutral or negative that might help, though that indice will hardly make or break the system.

 

It did make it. 0.096 for a value today.

[Scott26]

I wonder what the chances are that the 00z runs continue with a northern shift...It seems possible that another 30 mile shift could happen in either direction.

I think a slight north shift may be in the cards. Plenty of times this winter we have seen last minute shifts further north. While the track with this is pretty much set in stone now a slight north shift wouldn't surprise me. Also generally deformation bands are sometimes further north than modeled. You shouldn't worry Chitown will be right in the middle of it no matter what.

[Geos]

If the system is stronger than forecast, then either the deformation band will be wider or it will come a bit north.

 

[james1976]

Judas Priest, you guys get everything.

[gosaints]

I wonder what the chances are that the 00z runs continue with a northern shift...It seems possible that another 30 mile shift could happen in either direction.

We will see 71.111 mile shift in 6 hours increments in the coming runs

[DominicR]

If the system is stronger than forecast, then either the deformation band will be wider or it will come a bit north.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014013018/mw/rgem_tprecip_slp_mw_17.png

 

Is it still snowing beyond this frame?

[snowman1]

No shift please! Here along I80 in NC IL, we are looking like sweet spot. Even a shift north and we will still see some good snows, so I'm not too worried. Should be good for most of us IL people!

[tim the weatherman]

i don't see any major shifts it is going to stay right the where it is in the future runs

[Geos]

Is it still snowing beyond this frame?

 

No it would be shut off here.