February 2014 in the PNW

[pscz1140]

 I don't need to see snow just to see snow.    

 

That's where you and I differ.

[TT-SEA]

Rain on the 00Z GFS from Sunday - Tuesday:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_192_precip_p60.gif

 

 

Too bad this can't extend down more into California.    

[TT-SEA]

That's where you and I differ.

 

 

Thats OK.  

 

Side note... the mountains near Sochi are amazing.     And the weather has been incredible there. 

 

Too bad its so messed up politically.

[pscz1140]

Days 8-10 still have potential. Just need a bit more amplification in the Western Pacific.

 

Still looks a bit snowy for most of us and very snowy for some of us in that time frame as is.

[TT-SEA]

This is what you can do in your yard in Minnesota when the snow does not melt...  there are some advantages.   

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FevmvzXRDjw

 

But I prefer not dealing with snow on the ground all winter.     Its just easier.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is what you can do in your yard in Minnesota when the snow does not melt...  there are some advantages.   

 

 

But I prefer not dealing with snow on the ground all winter.     Its just easier.

Now that is what im talking about. Imagine the fun we could have getting together the forum and doing something like that. Lol.

[TT-SEA]

Now that is what im talking about. Imagine the fun we could have getting together the forum and doing something like that. Lol.

 

We built something similar in our neighborhood when I was 12... that was a crazy snowy winter that went on forever.   We also built snow forts in the snowbanks along the road almost every winter.    We had to wait until the banks got to be at least 3 or 4 feet high... but then we would have many forts along the road.   Some of them you could actually stand up inside.   Then we would have snowball fight wars across the street.      

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big snow potential with that trough around the 19/20th for my location.

[TT-SEA]

Big snow potential with that trough around the 19/20th for my location.

 

Yep... looks like it could be snowy for awhile we are gone.   

 

What 850mb temp do you need there for accumulating snow with strong onshore flow?      

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yep... looks like it could be snowy for awhile we are gone.   Darn.  

 

What 850mb temp do you need there for accumulating snow with strong onshore flow?      

 

A lot depends on precip intensity. With moderate to heavy precip -4C will do the trick. 528 thickness or lower usually does the trick too.

[TT-SEA]

A lot depends on precip intensity. With moderate to heavy precip -4C will do the trick. 528 thickness or lower usually does the trick too.

 

At -4C and strong onshore flow... would it start melting when the precip ends (if it doesn't clear up)?

 

I need -6C or -7C to really accumulate and stay.

[MossMan]

Everything that has already been said, coupled with the fact that it completely changes the landscape. We talk about how outside looks more inviting on a sunny day compared to a cloudy day, but that is nothing to what snow does. It covers up everything we don't want to see by powdering it with glittering whiteness. It is like going to bed one night in one location and waking up somewhere completely different. Your brain slightly recognizes your surroundings, but they are so radically different that it is like a stimulant. In the landscape colors and sounds may be muted, but that also is a new experience and it is amazing when we realize that something as fragile as a frozen water crystal, liable to melt with the slightest increase in temperature, has remade what we view day after day as largely unchanging.

 

It gives the landscape a pure, untouched look that cannot be equaled by anything else. I also love how it brightens the interior of the house, more so than even a sunny summer day!

 

Also I cannot lie, I love driving in it!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well yes, but with strong onshore flow and a cooling airmass it will switch to accumulating snow at about -4C. Usually with the bigger onshore snow events I've had 850s bottom out in the -6C range.

[snow_wizard]

Days 8-10 still have potential. Just need a bit more amplification in the Western Pacific.

 

Still looks a bit snowy for most of us and very snowy for some of us in that time frame as is.

 

 

I totally agree that somebody will have lowland snow if the 0z GFS were to verify.  It's well worth noting that trough around the 20th is trending toward being longer lasting as the time frame narrows.

[snow_wizard]

Well yes, but with strong onshore flow and a cooling airmass it will switch to accumulating snow at about -4C. Usually with the bigger onshore snow events I've had 850s bottom out in the -6C range.

 

Up here this run shows 850s dropping to -7 or -8 with surface pressure gradients going flat.  I've seen this type of thing yield lowland snow on a number of occasions.

[snow_wizard]

It gives the landscape a pure, untouched look that cannot be equaled by anything else. I also love how it brightens the interior of the house, more so than even a sunny summer day!

 

Also I cannot lie, I love driving in it!

 

 

I love everything about it.  Driving in it is awfully fun.  I also really like shoveling snow.  Good exercise and the piles last a long time.

 

Several years ago I had a boss who jokingly said he thought I probably run around naked in the snow.  I haven't tried it yet, but his point was well taken.

[AnthonyC]

Up here this run shows 850s dropping to -7 or -8 with surface pressure gradients going flat.  I've seen this type of thing yield lowland snow on a number of occasions.

 

The synoptic pattern actually looks pretty good...SE ridge...amplification off the coast...cold air in Western Canada.  But the pattern is too transient in nature...and the pattern isn't quite good enough.

 

We will be entering late Winter...the upper-air pattern needs to be pretty awesome for significant lowland snow.

 

I'm curious to see if places in the eastern Puget Sound region can score any lower elevation snowfall in convergence zones within the next six weeks.  March is usually ripe for one or two of these...

[snow_wizard]

Another thing worth mentioning is it appears the mountains will get pounded with snow in the few days leading up to the cold trough being advertised around the 20th.   Really interesting how fully the pattern has shifted from what we had the first half of the winter.

 

Looks like I may have a shot at snow on my birthday.  It has happened a few times in the past.

[TT-SEA]

Another thing worth mentioning is it appears the mountains will get pounded with snow in the few days leading up to the cold trough being advertised around the 20th.   Really interesting how fully the pattern has shifted from what we had the first half of the winter.

 

Looks like I may have a shot at snow on my birthday.  It has happened a few times in the past.

 

When is your birthday?

[snow_wizard]

The synoptic pattern actually looks pretty good...SE ridge...amplification off the coast...cold air in Western Canada.  But the pattern is too transient in nature...and the pattern isn't quite good enough.

 

We will be entering late Winter...the upper-air pattern needs to be pretty awesome for significant lowland snow.

 

I'm curious to see if places in the eastern Puget Sound region can score any lower elevation snowfall in convergence zones within the next six weeks.  March is usually ripe for one or two of these...

 

 

Yeah...I say the GFS is good enough for at least some localized lowland snow in the 9 to 12 day period.  The trough has also become less transitory compared to runs a couple of days ago.

[TT-SEA]

 

I'm curious to see if places in the eastern Puget Sound region can score any lower elevation snowfall in convergence zones within the next six weeks.  March is usually ripe for one or two of these...

 

 

Yep... it seems like February and March is the typical c-zone snow time up here.      And April.    <_>

[snow_wizard]

When is your birthday?

 

Feb 20.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think that places in NW Oregon would score lowland snow though the 19th does have somewhat of a March 21, 2012 look to it. That pattern verifying would give me at least twice as much snow as last week though. 

[TT-SEA]

Feb 20.

 

My boys are on February 19th.

 

One thing we have noticed is that the week of their birthday typically ends up being the nicest week of the winter.    It was really nice on their birthday for about 5 years in a row when they were little.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Feb 20.

Turning 75 this year right? I can't remember.

[snow_wizard]

Turning 75 this year right? I can't remember.

 

Not nearly that old, but a big milestone for sure.  The big five oh.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My boys are on February 19th.

 

One thing we have noticed is that the week of their birthday typically ends up being the nicest week of the winter.    It was really nice on their birthday for about 5 years in a row when they were little.

You have twin little boys?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not nearly that old, but a big milestone for sure.out  The big five oh.

Ha, I knew you weren't 75. I was kidding. 50 is not old.

[TT-SEA]

I don't think that places in NW Oregon would score lowland snow though the 19th does have somewhat of a March 21, 2012 look to it. That pattern verifying would give me at least twice as much snow as last week though. 

 

 

Yeah... at face value it looks like an 800-1000 foot sticking snow level for most areas.    This the typical pattern where we do very well and people living below 800 feet get mad at us.   Not too often my location is being crushed by Eugene!   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Feb 20.

My wife's Birthday is the 21st and my son's is the 24th... maybe a Birthday present for everyone.

[TT-SEA]

You have twin little boys?

 

No so little now.   They are turning 13.    

[TT-SEA]

Not nearly that old, but a big milestone for sure.  The big five oh.

 

Uh oh.

 

Going to do anything special?

[snow_wizard]

My boys are on February 19th.

 

One thing we have noticed is that the week of their birthday typically ends up being the nicest week of the winter.    It was really nice on their birthday for about 5 years in a row when they were little.

 

 

What is it about Feb 18 through Feb 22?  I have several family members (extended family and in laws included) that have birthdays in that range and have met several others that do also.  Totally bizarre.

[snow_wizard]

My wife's Birthday is the 21st and my son's is the 24th... maybe a Birthday present for everyone.

 

OMG...another one in the 18 to 22 range!

 

Another note about birthdays in that time frame.  It's in the Aquarius Pisces cusp which is considered to be one of the most interesting possible locations in the zodiac.  If you believe in such things.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No so little now.   They are turning 13.

 

My boy turned 17 on the first. Man they grow fast.

[TT-SEA]

What is it about Feb 18 through Feb 22?  I have several family members (extended family and in laws included) that have birthdays in that range and have met several others that do also.  Totally bizarre.

 

 

People must get frisky when everything is blooming in May.    

[TT-SEA]

My boy turned 17 on the first. Man they grow fast.

 

Blink of an eye.    

 

Scary how fast it all seems to go once you pass 30.

[MossMan]

What is it about Feb 18 through Feb 22?  I have several family members (extended family and in laws included) that have birthdays in that range and have met several others that do also.  Totally bizarre.

My wife is due on the 22nd!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have 4 friends whose birthday is February 6th...Very strange.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Blink of an eye.    

 

Scary how fast it all seems to go once you pass 30.

 

On Friday it will only be six more months til I hit the big 30.