Tom Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z Euro still showing an interesting snow event Day 7-10 from NE into the Lower Lakes. Arctic HP focuses into the northern Plains and creates a thermal boundary Day 6 while a weak/sheared SLP develops near the Pan Handle and on Day 7 it tries to get organized as it moves northeast thru S IL/S IN. A widespread band of 3-6", locally a bit more, lays down from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/MI. Certainly plenty of time to see this unfold and looking more interesting as this wave has potential to be our first real wintry system of the season as there will be enough early season arctic air in place. The model is even seeing some LehS in SE WI and then eventually swings into NE IL/NW IN on the backside of this system. Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty. Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place. Prime Cutter potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty. Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place. Prime Cutter potential. Sweet Tom. But, that's not how you kick-off a torch winter in the S. Lakes. Just sayin' 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z Euro still showing an interesting snow event Day 7-10 from NE into the Lower Lakes. Arctic HP focuses into the northern Plains and creates a thermal boundary Day 6 while a weak/sheared SLP develops near the Pan Handle and on Day 7 it tries to get organized as it moves northeast thru S IL/S IN. A widespread band of 3-6", locally a bit more, lays down from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/MI. Certainly plenty of time to see this unfold and looking more interesting as this wave has potential to be our first real wintry system of the season as there will be enough early season arctic air in place. The model is even seeing some LehS in SE WI and then eventually swings into NE IL/NW IN on the backside of this system. Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty. Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place. Prime Cutter potential.Right on schedule. :-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 12z Euro still showing an interesting snow event Day 7-10 from NE into the Lower Lakes. Arctic HP focuses into the northern Plains and creates a thermal boundary Day 6 while a weak/sheared SLP develops near the Pan Handle and on Day 7 it tries to get organized as it moves northeast thru S IL/S IN. A widespread band of 3-6", locally a bit more, lays down from NE/IA/N IL/S WI/MI. Certainly plenty of time to see this unfold and looking more interesting as this wave has potential to be our first real wintry system of the season as there will be enough early season arctic air in place. The model is even seeing some LehS in SE WI and then eventually swings into NE IL/NW IN on the backside of this system. Edit: FWIW, 12z Euro starts tanking the AO/NAO...pattern is setting up to be pretty. Both AO/NAO is forecast to be -2 Day 10 while a -PNA in place. Prime Cutter potential.This sounds great. Is this 2 runs in the row Euro has been showing this??Also....GFS is just showing a dry cold front with H moving in, if Im seeing it correctly?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 Alaska ridge still forecast to move in by next weekend. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 Alaska ridge still forecast to move in by next weekend. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111312/gfs_z500a_namer_34.pngThat is a monster ridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 This sounds great. Is this 2 runs in the row Euro has been showing this??Also....GFS is just showing a dry cold front with H moving in, if Im seeing it correctly??Indeed, GFS/EURO not in agreement but lets see if GFS plays catch up. The blocking pattern setting up on the Euro looks prime for west/east systems. Let's see if the pattern turns a bit wild for Thanksgiving week. 12z Euro Ensembles scream Winter is here soon...some members are painting quite the start to a Winter with plenty of snow chances over the coming 2 weeks. Check out the Day 8 500mb pattern...its not hard to find 2 nasty ridges (almost look like screamin' red eye balls)...Need I say more??? Day 10-15 the ridge hooks over the top and the fun and games begin. Wait till you tap into some of that arctic air that has been brewing up this Autumn season and causing extensive sea ice/snow cover growth... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png You could almost see Nature giving us the signs before hand, but if you thought otherwise, maybe now is the time to jump on board. I like the west-based Greenland block that is ready to Rock! SE ridge looks like it wants to stay put also. BTW, what a flip in the teleconnections all of a sudden on the Euro. It's crazy to see the majority of 51 members flip from a +AO to a -AO, and a +NAO to a -NAO. Get your shovels and snow boots ready boys and girls! Ha! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 Indeed, GFS/EURO not in agreement but lets see if GFS plays catch up. The blocking pattern setting up on the Euro looks prime for west/east systems. Let's see if the pattern turns a bit wild for Thanksgiving week. 12z Euro Ensembles scream Winter is here soon...some members are painting quite the start to a Winter with plenty of snow chances over the coming 2 weeks. Check out the Day 8 500mb pattern...its not hard to find 2 nasty ridges (almost look like screamin' red eye balls)...Need I say more??? Day 10-15 the ridge hooks over the top and the fun and games begin. Wait till you tap into some of that arctic air that has been brewing up this Autumn season and causing extensive sea ice/snow cover growth... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png You could almost see Nature giving us the signs before hand, but if you thought otherwise, maybe now is the time to jump on board. I like the west-based Greenland block that is ready to Rock! SE ridge looks like it wants to stay put also. BTW, what a flip in the teleconnections all of a sudden on the Euro. It's crazy to see the majority of 51 members flip from a +AO to a -AO, and a +NAO to a -NAO. Get your shovels and snow boots ready boys and girls! Ha! I'm ready to party like it's 2009! :-) Anyone else? If anyone was wondering how you get from a torch November to a cold December. Follow the progression from here on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm ready to party like it's 2009! :-) Anyone else? If anyone was wondering how you get from a torch November to a cold December. Follow the progression from here on.Cold december?? Because we have a seasonably cold spell in november means a cold december? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 I'm ready to party like it's 2009! :-) Anyone else? If anyone was wondering how you get from a torch November to a cold December. Follow the progression from here on.Yup, rising heights throughout Canada are going to produce some very cold HP's that will funnel down the cold air. Def trending towards the global models that have the ridging setting up in west/central Canada. Day 7-10 on the Euro is a clear indicator of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2015 Report Share Posted November 13, 2015 Snow cover starting to expand in Canada... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_usa.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Best guess is the nino energy release starts to rear its head first week of december Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Best guess is the nino energy release starts to rear its head first week of decemberMeaning??? Parade of storms, cold or warmth??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Cold december?? Because we have a seasonably cold spell in november means a cold december?Follow the progression from here on. There are more things in the entirety of the atmosphere than just one cold shot to follow and el nino. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 If I sincerely believed that December would torch, I'd be waving the white flag already. I'd concede defeat gladly and move to a new position. When I see all of the things moving to where they are now, I cannot change my position. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Best guess is the nino energy release starts to rear its head first week of decemberIf you're referring to convection/forcing at the dateline, you'd most likely be correct as I believe the MJO goes back into the COD. Haven't checked it lately but that was where it was headed last time I checked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Gosaints is a troll in case people haven't figured that out. Best not to respond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Gosaints is a troll in case people haven't figured that out. Best not to respond.Yeah. You know, I hate summer and it's boring, therefore I don't discuss it. Some should apply the wisdom to winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 I love all seasons but Winter is my favorite. Snowstorms are exciting and the change of season as fall approaches winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Yeah, cold December...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201512.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Gosaints is a troll in case people haven't figured that out. Best not to respond.How is he a troll? Everything he has said has been pretty accurate at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Yeah, cold December...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201512.gifThat's one model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 That's one model.The CFS monthlies have been proven to be useful and quite accurate, so I wouldn't discount it. The seasonals are a different story though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Gosaints is a troll in case people haven't figured that out. Best not to respond.Because I dont say its gonna be a cold snowy crazy epic winter in every other post I am a troll. Please explain further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Yeah. You know, I hate summer and it's boring, therefore I don't discuss it. Some should apply the wisdom to winter.I love snowstorms. True I dont enjoy cold dry winters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 I love snowstorms. True I dont enjoy cold dry winters. Well I'm with you there. Cold and dry is terrible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 That's one model.There isnt a model that shows a below average december Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 If all weather forecasting were done by models we would have zero accuracy in weather forecasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 They're called guidance for a reason and the Euro tossed it's own monthly one day after it came out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Well I'm with you there. Cold and dry is terrible.I promise you I love tracking snowstorms. When I say I think december is going to be quite warm I am not trolling. There is plenty to support a warm december. I could very well be wrong. The good thing is above normal doesnt have to mean no snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 If all weather forecasting were done by models we would have zero accuracy in weather forecasting.Then can you explain why you think this December will end up colder than average, please? Or is it just to fit your cold agenda. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 If all weather forecasting were done by models we would have zero accuracy in weather forecasting.This is a weather board. I can disagree with you. There are plenty of weather experts that would disagree with you as well and I am sure some that mighy side with you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 I promise you I love tracking snowstorms. When I say I think december is going to be quite warm I am not trolling. There is plenty to support a warm december. I could very well be wrong. The good thing is above normal doesnt have to mean no snow.I think anyone calling for a cold December would be trolling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa2015 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Whatever happens in December The end of November looking cold Above normal in December still can mean Snow. I'm personally happy as long as day time highs stay near or below freezing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 The temp anomalies on the long range GEFS really don't make sense if you look at the 500 mb pattern. Kinda screwy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 I don't like the 18z GFS, it shows both snow in Ohio and at my home in Texas while I'm in Topeka Kansas for Thanksgiving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 00z GFS trying to catch up to Euro. Now showing some precip late next week along the frontal boundary in IA/IL/WI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 14, 2015 Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 Then can you explain why you think this December will end up colder than average, please? Or is it just to fit your cold agenda.I believe Tom and I have done a fair enough job explaining why. However there have been little to no explanations for warmth other than "The model says...". A lot of what I have stated has only been modeled or is in the process of changing AFTER I stated it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 If you're referring to convection/forcing at the dateline, you'd most likely be correct as I believe the MJO goes back into the COD. Haven't checked it lately but that was where it was headed last time I checked. MJO is supposed to gain more amplitude, so for now not looking at the COD anytime sooon. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2015 00z GFS trying to catch up to Euro. Now showing some precip late next week along the frontal boundary in IA/IL/WI. Looks like this is the first legit shot for accumulating snow for some of us! Was a cold day today. High of 43°. Getting a nice long freeze tonight. Currently 30°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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