November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

WOW! Now that's a beaut!

 

Brings a question though. With the early snow build-up, do we end up with a "coast-to-coast" cold winter, or are they going to lose a lot of that when the hot-n-dry ridge returns out west and the trough favors eastern regions?

Good question.  Although, I think Cali is sitting pretty this winter as the Pacific jet this year has a lot more juice to it this year than last.  I think as we get deeper into Winter, blocking would favor a more active coast-to-coast storm track.

[OKwx2k4]

Good question. Although, I think Cali is sitting pretty this winter as the Pacific jet this year has a lot more juice to it this year than last. I think as we get deeper into Winter, blocking would favor a more active coast-to-coast storm track.

My thoughts are leaning more towards a wall-to-wall winter scenario at the moment as well.

[Tom]

My thoughts are leaning more towards a wall-to-wall winter scenario at the moment as well.

The NASA model was one of the only models that caught the frigid winter of 2013-14 and had a good handle on last year as well.  This year it is indicating a fun winter for a lot of us on here.

[OKwx2k4]

The NASA model was one of the only models that caught the frigid winter of 2013-14 and had a good handle on last year as well. This year it is indicating a fun winter for a lot of us on here.

True. I think JAMSTEC did a pretty good job with that one as well. There are just too many cold signals to ignore. I think January and February could be ridiculous.

[Tom]

12z GFS back with an insane cut-off blizzard Day 7-9 in the Plains...LOL

[gosaints]

GFS says we are looking at another prime late fall weekend.  Followed by the cutoff the pumps more above normal temps our way next week.

[OKwx2k4]

12z GFS back with an insane cut-off blizzard Day 7-9 in the Plains...LOL

Very nice.

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, I need to breath.  I saw that and about fell out of my chair.  If only part of that verified I would be pumped.  I don't ever remember a map showing that much snow in Nebraska, even over 384 hours.  That is just crazy.  Good eye candy to look.

[OKwx2k4]

GFS says we are looking at another prime late fall weekend. Followed by the cutoff the pumps more above normal temps our way next week.

I'm definitely enjoying the weather. It's perfect for just being outside and working on my yard or helping cut wood.

[gosaints]

Might have a shot at the warmest fall on record here

[Tom]

Tom, I need to breath.  I saw that and about fell out of my chair.  If only part of that verified I would be pumped.  I don't ever remember a map showing that much snow in Nebraska, even over 384 hours.  That is just crazy.  Good eye candy to look.

You guys deserve it man!  Ha!  If only it would verify...from near record Nov temps to start off the month to possible record snowfalls in the month of Nov.  Don't you just love how nature works?  We'll see how this evolves.  00z Euro last night showed similar placement of the trough next week but nowhere close to intensity.

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is the entire GFS 12Z run.  

 

[NEJeremy]

That was one of the weirdest looking storm paths and progression I've ever seen. I got real excited when I saw the low come out of southeast Colorado and had all that cold air to work with....... But then it never really makes it to eastern Nebraska. Low moves due north and then northwest and weakens. True cutoff. Might have to get a hotel room out in western Nebraska to enjoy this one if that actually verified!

[jaster220]

12z GFS back with an insane cut-off blizzard Day 7-9 in the Plains...LOL

 

We've seen the models paint huge and unrealistic totals on and off over the past few winters. Having said that, the front range of CO got that 42"? bliz in Oct '97 (NINO!) and Rapid CIty and the Black Hills had that system dump 2-5 feet. It's the land of massive spinners, so who the heck knows? Maybe it's Nebraska's turn. Nature has a way of balancing out and they've been the moisture futility zone in recent years.

[Tom]

We've seen the models paint huge and unrealistic totals on and off over the past few winters. Having said that, the front range of CO got that 42"? bliz in Oct '97 (NINO!) and Rapid CIty and the Black Hills had that system dump 2-5 feet. It's the land of massive spinners, so who the heck knows? Maybe it's Nebraska's turn. Nature has a way of balancing out and they've been the moisture futility zone in recent years.

Agree, this region tends to see the biggest storms early and late in the season.  It's about time they get some active wintry weather.  Hope the trends continue down the road.

[james1976]

Definitely a cut-off low. What a weird track.

[Jaycee]

I can't imagine this storm actually tracking like that, but my god. What a powerhouse! Haven't seen anything that strong in my life, not even in fantasy land. Good to see the cold air being wrapped around it as previous runs didnt have it. I think it has some serious potential, and we're all in the ballgame for it. I truly think Western Nebraska could be the Hotspot for the next month. I'll ride with you Jeremy, because if that pans out it would be "biblical"

[CentralNebWeather]

That track seems to be similar to the infamous Blizzard of 1949.  Oldtimers will say that the winter of 1948-1949 was Nebraska's worst.  I have read books and watched a PBS special about it.  I can't find the link now, but I have seen a website that did a computer animation of the track of the Jan. 2-5, 1949 Blizzard and this looks very similar to that storm.

 

Not saying this will happen, but there are times when weather history will repeat itself.  Might disappear on the next run but fun to talk about.

[Tom]

12z Euro with a similar cut-off low next week but it's track is more due west/east and intensifies into a 992mb SLP near STL Day 8.  850's marginal in the Midwest, but in NE/CO/N KS there is snow potential.

 

Edit: Another big precip/wind producer...

[jaster220]

Not sure where to put this, but for anyone following the "solar chill":

 

https://www.rt.com/news/273169-solar-cycle-ice-age/

[westMJim]

Calm before the storm?  Well with light winds and lots of sun (rare for west Michigan in late fall and winter) its been yet another great day here in Grand Rapids. Today with that sun the temps have reached the upper 50's (57 at the airport and 58 now at my house) and we are running +8.2° for the month. The mean here so far is now at 52.5° and the record warmest November here was 47.6° in 1931. The winter of 1931/32 was a very warm (by our standards) winter and there was only 41.1" of snow here and 25.3 of that fell in March of 1932. 

[Tom]

Both GFS/Euro are hinting at an arctic shot knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies Day 9-10.  If this storm can somehow phase with the northern jet, could be real interesting late next week.  Might have to follow the AO index carefully if it can play ball.

 

18z GFS still showing snow in the Plains...

 

[OKwx2k4]

That track seems to be similar to the infamous Blizzard of 1949. Oldtimers will say that the winter of 1948-1949 was Nebraska's worst. I have read books and watched a PBS special about it. I can't find the link now, but I have seen a website that did a computer animation of the track of the Jan. 2-5, 1949 Blizzard and this looks very similar to that storm.

 

Not saying this will happen, but there are times when weather history will repeat itself. Might disappear on the next run but fun to talk about.

I love weather history. The more we know, the better we can be at figuring out what comes next.

[Geos]

This would be quite a pattern for this winter. 

 

 

[Tom]

East Asian Theory looks to turn stormy/colder as we close out November.  Another rather vigorous system is poised to hit Japan in a SW/NE fashion over the next 7-8 days.  That part of the world turns real cold as Winter settles in near Japan.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111018/gfs_mslpa_wpac_34.png

 

This would bring implications for inclement weather around Thanksgiving and continue into the early part of December.  There was a powerful storm that hit the Bearing Sea a few days ago and using the Bearing Sea Rule, it would also imply on a colder/stormier Thanksgiving week somewhere in the central CONUS.  It's fascinating to see that both theories (East Asian Theory & Typhoon Rule) are both correlating a similar pattern at a given period of time even though they happened days apart .  Ol' Man Winter will be locking in his fury!

[OKwx2k4]

This would be quite a pattern for this winter.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

That's exactly almost what I'm looking for this winter.

[bud2380]

DGEX! DGEX! DGEX!

 

God bless the DGEX.  The most overblown model in the history of models. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

[james1976]

DGEX! DGEX! DGEX!

 

God bless the DGEX.  The most overblown model in the history of models. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

GFS is actually showing something similar. Haha

[UnionWX]

That's exactly almost what I'm looking for this winter.

 

But look at the East

[OKwx2k4]

But look at the East

Yeah. It would be ultimately over suppressed for them but that's a pretty viable solution for where the pattern takes us in my mind at least early on. They'll get some in the late winter, imo.

[Geos]

That's exactly almost what I'm looking for this winter.

 

You would have cold air surging down the plains and have storms one after another coming out of the Southwest. They would be juiced up from the el Niño/stronger southern stream influence.

[OKwx2k4]

You would have cold air surging down the plains and have storms one after another coming out of the Southwest. They would be juiced up from the el Niño/stronger southern stream influence.

Most definitely. If that verifies, going to start watching the Baja or SW TX almost immediately.

 

I may be the only one in the camp I'm in but I'm finding it pretty hard to think that later on that the ridge will connect all the way across Canada. Who knows though.

[Jaycee]

00z GFS is a dud. High Pressure completely kills the system, atleast that's what I'm seeing.

 

 

EDIT: Think we can write this run off, it has snow all the way down near El Paso, probably overdone with the High Pressure.

[Tom]

00z GFS is a dud. High Pressure completely kills the system, atleast that's what I'm seeing.

 

 

EDIT: Think we can write this run off, it has snow all the way down near El Paso, probably overdone with the High Pressure.

Getting closer to phasing with the polar jet coming down from Canada.  I'm assuming it will get close as the -AO will be developing during this period.  Plenty of time my man.

[Tom]

If the GFS is right, the long range pattern was sniffed out by the Euro Weeklies a while back.  As we get closer, ensembles are picking up on this potential dramatic pattern change.

[james1976]

I'm at HR240 on GFS and that looks like a heck of a cold punch coming down with a developing storm system in the Plains.
There's also a storm a day or so before that but it misses the phase with the artic push.

Something is brewing!

[Tom]

I'm at HR240 on GFS and that looks like a heck of a cold punch coming down with a developing storm system in the Plains.

There's also a storm a day or so before that but it misses the phase with the artic push.

 

Something is brewing!

Pattern is going to be loaded...I think some of us will be experiencing a White Thanksgiving this year.  I'm going start winterizing my house this weekend and put away all the hoses, etc from outside.  Winter is around the corner buddy!

[Tom]

I like how the GFS is starting to show storms hitting the 4 corners region one after another.  Something the CFS weeklies/Euro & GFS Ensembles are picking up on.

 

I'd like to show some maps on where I think the evolution of this pattern is heading.  Knowing the central Pacific is torching and the warmest waters are just S/SE of Hawaii (see below)

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_cpac_1.png

 

It makes complete sense that nature would want to create the most convection in this region or just north of there.  As we move forward in the season, the colder Pacific systems will Feedback in this region and your going to see one heck of a powerhouse subtropical jet.

 

Notice what the CFS is seeing Week 2, 3 & 4...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111012/cfs-avg_mslpa_sd5d_cpac_3.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111012/cfs-avg_mslpa_sd5d_cpac_4.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015111012/cfs-avg_mslpa_sd5d_cpac_5.png

 

 

 

As long as we can get the blocking to set up to deliver the cold air, we're going to see systems galore as we move forward towards December.  The WPO is expected to head negative, which is an active signal in East Asia which translates to storminess in our part of the world.  There are some intriguing signs for all those snow lovers out there.  Let's see how it all works out.

[Tom]

Saw this Tweet from JB...the November updated UKMET 500mb pattern for Winter...I noticed that it is backing the southern jet farther west into the 4 corners/southern Plains.  Last month, it had it more up/down the East Coast.  This is the second model now backing off the intense East Coast trough/storm track models were signaling (which would've been a typical El Nino pattern), this years pattern will likely have some twists and turns.  The pattern below is quite a coast 2 coast stormy pattern with blocking over the top.

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Great posts Tom. I love seeing confirmation of what, to some, appears to be a crazy idea on my part. I've put my neck out a ways the past couple of days so I'm quite relieved! :-) That backing west parks the mean trough pretty much directly over the central US. Just that slight difference in the trough position is key between normal plains storms and monster ones. That's really awesome. Ready to buckle up and let it unfold!