November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

12z GFS with a better looking storm for late next week and more of a southerly track.

[westMJim]

New November 4th records set in Michigan. At the 2PM readings new records have been recorded at Grand Rapids (74° old record 73°) Detroit 76° (old record 75°) Flint 79° (old record 72°) and at the Soo (Sault Ste Marie 68° old record 67° that 79° at Flint ties the record for November (it was 79° there yesterday also) and they have a good shot of setting an new November record. But note the Flint location has been reading warmer then in the past for some reason,  BTW here at my house I now have a reading of 76° so once again I will have to see if GRR also has that later on.

[james1976]

Euro must have sucked?? No talk of it. What are ensembles looking like for that storm late next week?

[gabel23]

New November 4th records set in Michigan. At the 2PM readings new records have been recorded at Grand Rapids (74° old record 73°) Detroit 76° (old record 75°) Flint 79° (old record 72°) and at the Soo (Sault Ste Marie 68° old record 67° that 79° at Flint ties the record for November (it was 79° there yesterday also) and they have a good shot of setting an new November record. But note the Flint location has been reading warmer then in the past for some reason,  BTW here at my house I now have a reading of 76° so once again I will have to see if GRR also has that later on. 

Holy crap those are some very warm temperatures for that part of the world. Those have to be close to all time record highs for November aren't they???

[gabel23]

New November 4th records set in Michigan. At the 2PM readings new records have been recorded at Grand Rapids (74° old record 73°) Detroit 76° (old record 75°) Flint 79° (old record 72°) and at the Soo (Sault Ste Marie 68° old record 67° that 79° at Flint ties the record for November (it was 79° there yesterday also) and they have a good shot of setting an new November record. But note the Flint location has been reading warmer then in the past for some reason,  BTW here at my house I now have a reading of 76° so once again I will have to see if GRR also has that later on.

Nevermind, you already mentioned it was 

[OKwx2k4]

That's really crazy that you all up there are warmer than I am all the way down here.

[westMJim]

Holy crap those are some very warm temperatures for that part of the world. Those have to be close to all time record highs for November aren't they???

With a reported high of 80° Flint set a new record high for the month of November. Their old record was 79° just tied yesterday and set back in 1950. Here in Grand Rapids and Detroit the all time record high is sill 81° set on November 1, 1950. As far as I can tell only Flint set a new all time November record today. 

[westMJim]

Here is a fun fact about the year 1950. Here in Grand Rapids the all time record November high of 81° was recorded on the 1st and then on November 25th 1950 the all time November record low of -10° was recorded. I do not expect that record to be in jeopardy this year. 

[Tom]

Been out all day...just got in.  12z Euro still showing a good storm for the Midwest/Lakes region.  The storm organizes and intensifies as it heads East from KC towards STL into C IL/C IN/N OH.  Dumps 2-3" of rain in IA/N IL...temps look marginal for snow. 

 

Daytime highs in the upper 30's for NE/KS next Thursday. 

[Tom]

Both the Euro/GFS ensembles starting to show a nice west-based Greenland Block developing mid month while the pacific continues to pound away in the west.  This could be a favorable setup to get some big juicy systems to close out the month.  On the Euro Ensembles, the Plains look to cool dramatically in the extended.  Thanksgiving week still looks like it may get pretty wintry in the central CONUS.

[Geos]

Both the Euro/GFS ensembles starting to show a nice west-based Greenland Block developing mid month while the pacific continues to pound away in the west.  This could be a favorable setup tod get some big juicy systems to close out the month.  On the Euro Ensembles, the Plains look to cool dramatically in the extended.  Thanksgiving week still looks like it may get pretty wintry in the central CONUS.

 

That sounds like exciting times to me!

 

---

I refuse to mow the grass again. Actually it's better to leave the grass a bit long for winter. Helps protect/insulate the ground more.

 

High of 70° this afternoon after a cool and damp morning.

[Tom]

Yeah. It's sad that I'm going to have to mow again so all my snow this winter doesn't have grass sticking up through it making my yard ugly. Lol. Maybe still on track for a frost the 8th according to Tulsa NWS. Here's to hoping.

 

I read this morning that the final Siberian snow cover total for week 44 was 3rd all time so we have that going for us all who love snow.

To comment farther regarding the Siberian Snow Cover, I just checked and the last 3 years have been the most coverage since Oct 1976 (17.22 million sq. km).  Oct 2002 is the most recent El Nino winter that had an October snow cover of 13.41 million square km.  This year, the total coverage ended up being 12.67 million square km.

 

The winter of 2002-2003 was pretty cold for the eastern CONUS and a wild one as well.  We know the '76-'77 Winter was one of THE coldest for the U.S.  If you were to ride the SAI Theory, I'd say we have a good chance of seeing a colder Winter ahead.

[OKwx2k4]

To comment farther regarding the Siberian Snow Cover, I just checked and the last 3 years have been the most coverage since Oct 1976 (17.22 million sq. km). Oct 2002 is the most recent El Nino winter that had an October snow cover of 13.41 million square km. This year, the total coverage ended up being 12.67 million square km.

 

The winter of 2002-2003 was pretty cold for the eastern CONUS and a wild one as well. We know the '76-'77 Winter was one of THE coldest for the U.S. If you were to ride the SAI Theory, I'd say we have a good chance of seeing a colder Winter ahead.

I agree. All the cards are pretty much dealt. Just have to get the AO into negative territory or at least neutral. I know that's what the theory says it does but not too sure after last year.

[Tom]

I agree. All the cards are pretty much dealt. Just have to get the AO into negative territory or at least neutral. I know that's what the theory says it does but not too sure after last year.

Last year, regarding the teleconnections, it was primarily the -EPO that carried the weight...you can even say the -WPO as well.  This year, it's going to have to be the AO/NAO if we want cold because the Pacific is going to be on fire.  There will be way to much energy out in the Pacific this season.  Def need to see a -AO to have a better shot at phased/energized systems.

[OKwx2k4]

So, looking at the CFS version of our teleconnections and MJO currently and going forward this morning. MJO is currently rolling through some warmer phases, however it is forecast to go back into the "circle of death" around the 1st-5th of December. The AO is positive and is forecast to stay that way until the 17th or so of this month when it dips negative for a time then goes into a more fluctuating pattern before going negative sometime around Christmas to New Years. Been a trend for a little while on there. (Even though it is the CFS it gets points for some consistency.) The NAO follows a very similar trend to the AO in that it tanks around New Years. All of these values right now lead me to believe that we will see an entirely different weather pattern after Thanksgiving and that by mid-late December/January we'll be pretty much in a whole different world. Especially if the MJO comes out of the COD into phase 8 or 1. I'm open to correction on any of this if I'm incorrect, but this is the best explanation in my mind as to why things are the way they are right now and the possible outcome as the pattern transitions further.

[Tom]

Taking a gander at the Euro Ensembles, next big trough that has an arctic connection would be around Day 10-12 from the Rockies into the central CONUS.  Both GFS/Euro are in some agreement this far out and the 06z GFS operational may be giving us a "hint" of what is to come.  Last year we saw an arctic invasion around the 12th or 15th, I don't remember exactly, but no big systems that interacted with the cold.  This year, we may have a whole different ball game.

 

Regarding the oscillating teleconnections, eventually I see the NAO head negative over the next 10-15 days as both global models see a west-based Greenland block building.  The AO may not completely become negative till very late November.  However, that doesn't mean you can't "seed" cold air into the lower 48.  I don't mind seeing oscillating telleconnections because ultimately that means there is a storm train of systems.  I'd rather see system after system rather than one big storm and then significant blocking post-system that just shoves everything out.

 

The Plains are the target zone Week 2 and look very wintry on the Euro Ensembles.  Folks in KS/NE will prob see their first accumulating snows.  Some of the individual runs, especially the Euro Control, paint a wintry solution.

 

Looking out farther, by Day 15, the EPO may turn negative due to building heights in the NE PAC (classic Split Flow pattern) and a southern jet that starts to work into Cali while arctic air feeds into the lower 48.  This looks to me like a winter-like pattern is trying to set up right before Thanksgiving week.  Fun times may be right around the corner.

[westMJim]

Even though today started out much warmer then the past 3 days and there was clear blue sky just a hour ago the clouds have now moved in and the string of 70+ days may come to an end, Although even with the clouds its still 67° here with a DP's in the upper 50's so it feels almost a little humid

[Tom]

JMA weeklies are showing a similar look Week 3-4 with rising heights near the Arctic/Archipelago region and the Pacific jet hitting the west coast.  This is a 2 week mean but you can get the impression that there may some evidence of Winter making an appearance by later this month.  There is some real cold air building right in this region and will continue to build while the snow depth continues to grow.

 

BTW, the CFS model has done a real good job picking up on the snow cover to spread from AK/Yukon down into western Canada as we head into November.  This was being depicted way back in early October and as we head deeper into November, we'll see western Canada fill up quite a bit with snow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015110506/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

Current Snow Cover...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

Chart Departure showing some above normal anomalies showing up...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2015308.png

 

 

 

[james1976]

Nice posts Tom. I like yours better than the 12z GFS snoozefest. Lol

[Tom]

Nice posts Tom. I like yours better than the 12z GFS snoozefest. Lol

Best thing to do is look at the Ensembles right now.  Op runs can get pretty fluky, esp when the seasons are changing.

[Tom]

12z Euro coming in...NE getting slammed with a very strong 995mb SLP in S NE just west of Omaha.  Heavy snows wallop the western half of NE and parts of N KS.  I think that it's overdone due to marginal 850's.  Interesting run with loads of precips.

[CentralNebWeather]

That would be wonderful.  It has been awhile since we have a large precipitation maker in November.  I remember a large snowstorm around the 11th of November in 2000 because my wife was 8 months pregnant and I had to get to the store.  Seems like it was a solid 8-10 inch storm.  I think anything is possible this year but just the chance of moisture is good.  We had a nice .20 of rain last night as a line of storms moved through around midnight in Central Nebraska before the front arrived.  It is a raw 48 degrees right now with a north wind gusting to 20 MPH.

[clintbeed1993]

12z Euro coming in...NE getting slammed with a very strong 995mb SLP in S NE just west of Omaha.  Heavy snows wallop the western half of NE and parts of N KS.  I think that it's overdone due to marginal 850's.  Interesting run with loads of precips.

 

Hey Tom can you start posting the EURO maps?  I don't have any way of looking at them myself and would like to see the precip.

[Tom]

Hey Tom can you start posting the EURO maps?  I don't have any way of looking at them myself and would like to see the precip.

Here you go...I will only post occasionally...

[Tom]

RPM model showing a nasty line of thunderstorms later tonight over N IL...wonder if there will be any severe wx threat from this...

[clintbeed1993]

Thanks Tom!  Dang, that's so close yet so far away.  Come on storm!  Move south a bit!

[CentralNebWeather]

Tom, I was going to ask you the same thing as clintbeed1993.  Do you mean it is time to start tracking storms again?  Love it.  My goal this year is not to get to high or low when snowfall maps come out, but it is just in my nature.  

[Maxim]

What is up with ORD? Every other major reporting site in the area has reached or EXCEEDED 70, except for ORD of course. (even UGN tagged 70 earlier). I swear, something is up with the sensor there, but whatever. Not the first time it's done something similar to this.

[BrianJK]

What is up with ORD? Every other major reporting site in the area has reached or EXCEEDED 70, except for ORD of course. (even UGN tagged 70 earlier). I swear, something is up with the sensor there, but whatever. Not the first time it's done something similar to this.

 

Agreed.  Something is definitely off there.

[NEJeremy]

Jim Flowers has dropped a hint on his winter forecast. Said his analogue years are going to be 1992-93 and 2003-04.

[OKwx2k4]

Nice little thunderstorm complex moving through down here. Thunder in November is supposed to mean a cold winter. :-)

[OKwx2k4]

Jim Flowers has dropped a hint on his winter forecast. Said his analogue years are going to be 1992-93 and 2003-04.

It would be one of the most different analog sets used for this year for sure. Be interesting to see how he correlates them to this year.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles continue to show a big pattern change near AK/Yukon and the NE PAC in Day 10-15 range.  Rising heights in this region should begin to shift the pool of arctic air south.  If I had to put a date out there, I'd say around the 17th/18th we can expect an air mass directly from the Arctic that looks to creep across the U.S./Canadian border and bleed down east of the Rockies into the central CONUS.  I think next week is not the last time folks in the Plains will see chances of snow this month.  Thanksgiving week still looks pretty interesting if this stormy pattern can link up with some arctic air.

 

18z GFS...Fantasy Land eye candy....300 HR...Ha!

[OKwx2k4]

That's not just a bomb, it's a NUKE. Lol. I'm sure it will be gone tomorrow but the GFS is definitely trying to resolve something around that time frame.

[Tom]

That's not just a bomb, it's a NUKE. Lol. I'm sure it will be gone tomorrow but the GFS is definitely trying to resolve something around that time frame.

We'll prob be tracking storms of this magnitude this season.  Pacific is going to be wild and the GOM is open for business.  Should be a fun season.

[Tom]

I was thinking of starting a Snowfall contest this year.  We had one a couple years ago, but it ended up being lost in the midst of a transition into our new Forum.  Last year we didn't even have one.  I'm thinking this season will be packed with storms so what are your guys thoughts on this???

 

Geo's, maybe we can use the same format you had created a couple years ago???  We could pick a few cities in the locals that are in the general vicinity of every member on this forum.  Example, we can pick a city or two in the Plains/southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV???

[Tom]

It's funny, Jim Flowers just commented on FB regarding that storm on the GFS on the 17th/18th.  I guess him and I are on the same wave length???  Manifest baby!

[westMJim]

I was thinking of starting a Snowfall contest this year.  We had one a couple years ago, but it ended up being lost in the midst of a transition into our new Forum.  Last year we didn't even have one.  I'm thinking this season will be packed with storms so what are your guys thoughts on this???

 

Geo's, maybe we can use the same format you had created a couple years ago???  We could pick a few cities in the locals that are in the general vicinity of every member on this forum.  Example, we can pick a city or two in the Plains/southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes/OV???

I think a snow fall contest would be fun. Not that I am any good at it. Anyway here is a list of some past strong El Nino winters and that seasons snow fall here at Grand Rapids..1957/58 70.3"  1965/66 67.0"   1972/73 65.5"   1982/83  35.9" 1997/98 59.8" The long term average here in Grand Rapids is about 72" (the amount goes up as you get closer to the lake and here at my house its about 80") so for Grand Rapids my guess for this winter is (drum roll please) 63" of course that could be adjusted up or down. 

[OKwx2k4]

I'm game. I think it would be fun.

[Tom]

I think a snow fall contest would be fun. Not that I am any good at it. Anyway here is a list of some past strong El Nino winters and that seasons snow fall here at Grand Rapids..1957/58 70.3"  1965/66 67.0"   1972/73 65.5"   1982/83  35.9" 1997/98 59.8" The long term average here in Grand Rapids is about 72" (the amount goes up as you get closer to the lake and here at my house its about 80") so for Grand Rapids my guess for this winter is (drum roll please) 63" of course that could be adjusted up or down. 

I need to find a place where I can live and see 80"+ a season consistently and be able to enjoy a little bit of city life!  I've always found it fascinating how crippling Lake Effect snow can be.  On this side of the lake, we were pretty fortunate to get some decent lake effect/enhancement episodes the past 2 seasons that upped the totals near Cook/Lake county.