November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

GFS is bouncing around a lot. Like you said, having a hard time trying to figure out what to do with this wave. First it was next Sunday...and then nothing....and now Friday. Prolly will change a lot more but it will make for some interesting runs. Early to mid week looks very wet. An active week nonetheless. Bodes well for the LRC!

Yup, pattern is going to get juiced up big time.  ENSO 3.4 Region almost at 3C with a solid central based Nino will cause massive amount of forcing near the dateline.  Once you get into the heart of Winter Dec-Feb, the reaction from the STJ is going to be very interesting to see.

[Tom]

00z GFS showing a Thanksgiving Day monster...something I've been talking about to look out for over 10 days ago using the Bearing Sea Rule....

[Maxim]

Pretty impressive run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111500/gfs_asnow_ncus_28.png

thing is on crack, I think.

[Tom]

thing is on crack, I think.

LOL...

[Tom]

00z GGEM now starting to show this wave for next Fri/Sat....

[Tom]

00z GGEM juiced up...LOL...I-80 snowstorm???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111500/gem_asnow_ncus_34.png

[Geos]

Let's do it!^ I'm ready for snow. Yard will be cleaned up tomorrow.

[Money]

How does the euro look ?

[OKwx2k4]

You guys clean up on that round and I get snow down here on Thanksgiving. Sounds like a winner to me.

[WBadgersW]

Let's bring it! At this point an 1" of snow would make my day.

[westMJim]

Not so much about any up coming systems but more of where we are at right now with a warm first half of this week coming up.

we are now at the half way point of November 2015 and Grand Rapids along with other locations is still running at the warmest November in record pace. Here if GR as of yesterday the mean temp is 46.7° or +6.4° the record warmest November in GR was 47.6° back in 1931. With the second warmest being 46.8° in 2001. With a few more warm days ahead before we cool down we will have to see how this month ends up but it looks like it will be above average and maybe, Just maybe one of the warmest on record. A top 5 at this time looks do able but we shall see. 

BTW  both 1931/32 and 2001/02 were very warm winters with 31/32. With 31/32 not very snowy (41.1”) and while 01/02 was snowy (105.2”) of that 105” 53.2” fell from December 23^rd to the 31^st

[Tom]

00z Euro is showing 3-6" in NE, 1-3" S IA/C IL/N IN/N OH...a bit south this run and not as organized but a nice first snow over-running event.  Then it has another weak wave dropping 1-2" in the same locals on Monday with a storm trying to get organized near the Pan Handle next Wednesday.

[westMJim]

00z GGEM juiced up...LOL...I-80 snowstorm???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111500/gem_asnow_ncus_34.png

I Will have to see how and if this plays out. We shall see

[Money]

6z GFS has 6-12 from minny through Michigan

[Tom]

06z GFS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111506/gfs_asnow_ncus_31.png

[FV-Mike]

Great to see a system to track. Lots of time and the models will be changing but happy to see he first potential snow!

[gosaints]

Best chance at something big might.be when nao flips back positive while the epo stays negative for a bit longer

[Tom]

What a gorgeous day, I was able to put up quite a few of my x mas lights. I hope to finish tomorrow, things look wet next week. I'm very excited to see lezaks winter forecast.....I'm a little worried about the lack of arctic air so far this fall. Will be interesting to see how much that plays into the LRC.....

I think I might also take advantage of today's weather and put up at least my Christmas Lights on the gutters/bushes.   Thinking about heading to AZ this coming week for Thanksgiving and the last thing I'd want to have happen is there to be snow on the ground when I come back and no decorations.  I made that mistake in 2010 (I think) and never again!  The way the pattern is evolving on the Euro Ensembles, you guys out there only prob have a few more nice days remaining before it turns cold/wintry.

[gabel23]

I think I might also take advantage of today's weather and put up at least my Christmas Lights on the gutters/bushes.   Thinking about heading to AZ this coming week for Thanksgiving and the last thing I'd want to have happen is there to be snow on the ground when I come back and no decorations.  I made that mistake in 2010 (I think) and never again!  The way the pattern is evolving on the Euro Ensembles, you guys out there only prob have a few more nice days remaining before it turns cold/wintry.

Got to take advantage of the nice weather!! I start basketball practice tomorrow so my time will be limited. I don't mind putting my timers up in cold weather, the lights not so much. I'm hoping we can get a decent snowpack going around or after thanksgiving.....nothing makes the lights look better than a deep snowpack!!

[Iowawx]

12Z GFS with Warning level snows for Iowa and Illinois 

[Tom]

12z GFS looking like the 00z Euro but with more moisture.  -EPO pushing things a bit farther south.  I've learned that if we see a declining EPO, models tend to react later as we get closer to an event and push storm track south.  

[Tom]

Here is what usually happens with a -EPO in the month of November.  EPO is going into the tank by the 24th through end of the month.  I'm already beginning to think the northern tier of states may see record cold to finish off the month, esp if some snow is laid down.  The month started off as a torch, but looks to finish as a cold one.

 

http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/EPOnew/EPOnew_neg_11nov.png

[WBadgersW]

If that's the case, I really hope the EPO doesn't go too far negative. The last couple years it has caused most storm to go South of me.

 

Time to make a thread on this storm?

[Hawkeye]

Weekend snow event is mostly gone from the 12z CMC... just has a weak event passing sw of Iowa.  Obviously, the models are not going to have a great handle on the shortwave dropping in from the pacnw, riding the southern edge of the cold shot, until later in the week.

[Tom]

If that's the case, I really hope the EPO doesn't go too far negative. The last couple years it has caused most storm to go South of me.

 

Time to make a thread on this storm?

Not just yet, still about 6 days away...who knows, it could fizzle out...I'd say if by Mon/Tues its still showing up we can.

 

Regarding EPO, you got that right...early on it may not be such a problem pushing storm track south, but later on in December it can.

[WBadgersW]

For some odd reason I keep thinking the storm will be tracking through on Thursday.

[Iowa2015]

12z Gfs Looks promising for a snowstorm next weekend then gets cold with additional chances for more snow as we head towards thanksgiving & end of November by the start of December in fantasy land we struggle to get to 20 for day time highs

[Tom]

12z Euro much lighter and pushes snow band even farther south...1-2" from NE/N MO/S IA/C IL/C IN/OH

[Geos]

The cold air will be around next weekend, so that gives a better chance that someone will see some snow fall and accumulate.

 

[bud2380]

Euro has a much weaker wave moving through effecting mostly southern Iowa and Northern Missouri this weekend, Nebraska too, but looks like light snow accumulations.  Similar to latest Canadian.  We'll see what happens.

[Tom]

18z GFS still showing an I-80 snowstorm for Fri/Sat...3-6+" from NE/IA/N IL....

 

Edit:  18z GFS digs this system as it cuts NE towards the Lower Lakes...juicier than its previous run...

 

 

 

[james1976]

18z GFS still showing an I-80 snowstorm for Fri/Sat...3-6+" from NE/IA/N IL....

 

Edit:  18z GFS digs this system as it cuts NE towards the Lower Lakes...juicier than its previous run...

Even some lollipop 12" amounts. Lol. GFS is on its own right. And that is a sharp cut off on the north and south edges.

[Niko]

Even some lollipop 12" amounts. Lol. GFS is on its own right. And that is a sharp cut off on the north and south edges.

My weather forecaster called for Rain/Snow mix and said that things might get wintry next weekend. I wonder how SEMI does with this one.

[Tom]

What a difference a year makes...remember it like it was yesterday...

 

[Geos]

High of 63° today with no clouds to speak of. Had a 37° spread in temps this weekend.

 

Nice weather, but I'm ready for snow now!

[Money]

0z GFS coming in north/wetter for the snow it looks like (at least through HR 108)

[Money]

5-8 inch snow band runs from central MN into north/central WI.

 

Way north this run.

[westMJim]

Today here in Grand Rapids it was sunny with a high at the airport of 63° (the high was 65° here at my house) this compares to last year when from November 13th to the 20th when 28.9" of snow fell here in Grand Rapids

[james1976]

GFS is all over the place. Least its still showing a system.

[Geos]

Low pressure next weekend will follow the baroclinic zone that the mid week storm lays out. Snow band is going to oscillate all over the place this week.