November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

best I can find

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

Thanks. I knew about this site.

 

That PNA prediction is lower than the chart on the CPC's site.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

[OKwx2k4]

I have a related question. Does anyone know where to find past indices charts? (EPO, AO, PNA, and NAO specifically) Thanks.

[gosaints]

Nice battle shaping up on the euro versus gfs at 500 mb

[OKwx2k4]

Nice battle shaping up on the euro versus gfs at 500 mb

You referring to the 27th?

[gosaints]

You referring to the 27th?

Ya basically between hour 192 and 240.  

[OKwx2k4]

Ya basically between hour 192 and 240.

I vote for the Euro only further south. :-)

[gosaints]

I vote for the Euro only further south. :-)

The EURO is a much better look for real storms.  GFS is just rip roaring progressive garbage.  Sure its showing way below normal temps but that pattern is not gonna produce anything other than a nuisance snow.  Euro look has potential

[Tom]

Euro likes to drag energy behind and leave it hanging back in the Rockies to long.  A combo of both the GFS/EURO would be ideal.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro likes to drag energy behind and leave it hanging back in the Rockies to long. ---> A combo of both the GFS/EURO would be ideal.

This. Hoping it digs far enough south to snow on me a little before paying you guys a visit.

[OKwx2k4]

I have a related question. Does anyone know where to find past indices charts? (EPO, AO, PNA, and NAO specifically) Thanks.

Bump.

[jaster220]

Long range GFS is crazy. Wow

 

Sorry, but these extremely vague non-specific posts are extremely annoying. Show what you are referring to or maybe take a min to spell it out. Thx

[gosaints]

Long range GFS is crazy. Wow

Crazy cold dry and boring. Super progressive

[Jaycee]

Man, can this weather get anymore depressing? It's literally like walking outside into an evanescence album. It's cloudy, windy, and misting. Love the precip, but absolutely hate this 39 degrees and rain.

[FV-Mike]

Man, can this weather get anymore depressing? It's literally like walking outside into an evanescence album. It's cloudy, windy, and misting. Love the precip, but absolutely hate this 39 degrees and rain.

I am with you. I know a lot of people hate cold a dry but there is nothing worse that 39 degrees and rain in any month.

[OKwx2k4]

Man, can this weather get anymore depressing? It's literally like walking outside into an evanescence album. It's cloudy, windy, and misting. Love the precip, but absolutely hate this 39 degrees and rain.

I'd take the 39 degrees part. Lol. I sweated for awhile early this morning at work and then had a tornado warned storm pass directly overhead. Pretty exciting morning.

[Tom]

18z GFS looking better for Thanksgiving week...

[Tom]

Fantasy Land GFS...this would be awesome to have this much of the country covered with snow to open up December...let the pattern load up!

 

 

[Tom]

GFS/EURO starting to show a nice Split Flow pattern Week 1-2 as we close out November.  Heading towards the new JMA monthlies/EURO/CANSIPS 500mb pattern for December.  A deep trough should form south of the Aleutians and "hand off" pieces of energy into the west coast.  So long there is ridging in Central Canada, things are going to get pretty wild.

[james1976]

My word, that is a very cold and quite active fantasy land 18z GFS. Mostly after Thanksgiving. The cold doesn't seem to push all the storminess too far south.

[Andrew NE]

It's a long ways out but boy is great to see such a colorful map on the latest GFS. It's been awhile.

[OKwx2k4]

Fantasy Land GFS...this would be awesome to have this much of the country covered with snow to open up December...let the pattern load up!

Too far north. :-(

[ingyball]

Too far north. :-(

I'm all for shifting that heavier snow axis southeast so it lines up with Oklahoma and Ohio.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm all for shifting that heavier snow axis southeast so it lines up with Oklahoma and Ohio.

Lol. Me too. It could be like a January '78 storm.

[james1976]

00z GFS continuing with a powerhouse Thanksgiving storm but way north. North Dakota gets absolutely destroyed this run.

[OKwx2k4]

If the models continue to trend the way they have, (not saying they will, BUT IF they do) we could be seeing a +TNH pattern for December. It's not a warm pattern here in the central US. Not even close.

[Iowawx]

This thread has been quiet pretty much all day, everyones all focused on the snowstorm on Friday. But lets talk about what happens after that. Right now, snow prospects don't look too promising after Friday for awhile. Another storm is expected on Thanksgiving Day, but it seems to be a rain maker at this point. How are things looking for the last days of November after the storm on Friday?

[Tom]

East Asian/Bearing Sea Rule seem to be panning out for the Thanksgiving storm system.  The storm that just hit Japan wasn't really a wound up storm suggesting a sheared storm, maybe a 2 part storm with one wave heading up into the Upper Midwest then another piece that may lag behind and develop into something.  If all the energy can come out all at once, then it will be quite a significant storm system to hit the central CONUS.  Post-storm, the coldest air of the season hits and it might be colder than what we saw last November.  If there is a snow cover in the Plains/Upper Midwest, some places are going to see insane cold for the time of year.

[james1976]

That is the strongest and most long-lasting high pressure I've ever seen. Im talking post- Thanksgiving. LOL. However, I do not expect that to verify. But its fun to watch long range models.
Im referring to tonight's 00z GFS. 

[Tom]

NASA's arsenal to track Winter storms this season...

 

http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--AI6lUPx8--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/1524882946549640850.jpg

 

 

Here's the article...http://gizmodo.com/winter-is-coming-and-this-nasa-aircraft-will-help-study-1743225063?utm_campaign=socialflow_io9_twitter&utm_source=io9_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

[OKwx2k4]

Looking ahead, I'm going to be frustrated if I let people talk me into going too warm for December. Lol. Regardless of absolute numbers, there's the best signal for intense cold I have seen in a long time with a potential suppressed storm track over TX/OK/AR. I wouldn't mind starting December out like that. Not at all.

[ingyball]

I'll be going to Topeka Kansas for Thanksgiving, then I'll be back in Texas for a day before I get on a plane to head back to Ohio, some of these model runs are trying to trap me in Texas for a few days lol.

[gosaints]

Looking ahead, I'm going to be frustrated if I let people talk me into going too warm for December. Lol. Regardless of absolute numbers, there's the best signal for intense cold I have seen in a long time with a potential suppressed storm track over TX/OK/AR. I wouldn't mind starting December out like that. Not at all.

In a long time.  How about the last 2 winters?

[OKwx2k4]

In a long time. How about the last 2 winters?

I meant that early in the winter. I guess you could count last November if you wanted but that's not really winter.

[gosaints]

I meant that early in the winter. I guess you could count last November if you wanted but that's not really winter.

Definitely gonna be some cold days but I highly doubt we see cold with the staying power the GFS was showing a few runs ago.  It has lightened up on it considerably.  Euro has as well.   NAO and AO could rage in december.  EPO flips back positive it will be hello pacific air.  

 

Long range starting to look more el nino like.  Basically when it should be.

[westMJim]

With a peak wind gust of 49MPH and a high temp of  yesterday was yet another warm and windy day here in GR. And for the month GR now has a mean temp of 51.0 and that is +8.4.  With that mean temp of 51.0° the next item of interest is just how much will GR lose during the upcoming cool down? The all time record warmest November here was 47.6° in 1931 with 46.8 in 2008 being the second warmest. 

[gosaints]

The GFS has basically gone from all out artic onslaught to a glancing blow 

[OKwx2k4]

Oh I don't doubt at all that the cold was overdone quite a bit yesterday. No way is it going to be 11 down here in eastern Oklahoma on December 4th. Lol. But the overall pattern screams cold at least from what I can see and I believe most of the 10-15 degree fluctuations at such long leads are primarily due to the model estimates of snowcover or lack thereof and what to do with the typhoon over the pacific. Typhoons tend to hurt the skill scores at long leads in both models if I'm not mistaken. I'm still looking for an AO drop around mid month but will probably get kinda warm before that.

[gosaints]

thanksgiving storm looking like a waste.  positive tilted glorified cold front

[Geos]

Windy day so far. Sun is out, but isn't helping it feel much warmer. Near steady temperature since sunrise. CAA going strongly.

 

Soil temps have taken a tumble as well. Snow should stick without problem tomorrow night.

Colder waters should upwell along the west coast of Lake Michigan today.

[OKwx2k4]

Cold shots are back on this run of the GFS to close out November.