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November 2015 Observations and Discussion

Geos

By Geos
in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Don't buy the euro solution. Will be too warm to snow in the great lakes region on thanksgiving/black friday 

00z GFS stepping in the right direction up by you and Snowshoe...Euro may haves sniffed it out on its 12 run.  I always felt that with the -EPO the cold would push and models may start showing that going forward.

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Tom
Tom

Jim Flowers posted this Euro Snowfall map...  

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

This is not the first unprovoked similarity I have heard to that year. It's getting pretty eerie now. Lol. Similar but different story here but this one happened over a month ago. I posted a random qu

Jaycee
Jaycee

I have evolved from my shell. Wow this system next week. Oh boy, going to be a long season. Sorry school, looks like I'm burying my life in model watching again! Love the trends, it's been dry as bone

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Thanksgiving Day system still showing a snowy solutin for WI..1-3" for C/E...it ain't much, but enough to whiten the ground and bring the mood up a bit.  I think in time, this may come close to being a 2-5" event on the north side of the frontal boundary.  Even parts of Iowa might get a fresh coating of snow stretching back towards NE.  Euro Ensembles have a band of 2-3" stretching from NE/IA/MN/WI.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112312/gfs_asnow_us_19.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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I'm thinking about starting a Thread for the Thanksgiving Day storm which looks like it will be a 2-part system.  First part on TD/BF...then a separate piece on the weekend.  GFS is continuing to suggest a large area of snow for the following weekend.  Should we combine the 2 systems or keep them separate???

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The warmth definitely has backed off a little on the GFS (if I remember correctly, the 00z Euro still had temps pushing up towards the higher 50s), but still just a bunch of rain here.

Ain't that a surprise???  GFS doesn't have you getting out of the 30's...watch, you'll prob end up getting a couple inches of snow out of this system!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Even less surprising that the air behind that system has modified like crazy from the record breaking cold that the GFS was once depicting

Yup, lack of snow cover prob has a lot to do with it.  The models have always suggested that the Plains would get the brunt of the cool down.  But hey, as long as it's cold enough for snow we can't complain, right?

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z GFS...if this system can just phase a bit better it could be big.  Models are trending rather nicely...ways away, but another system to track that would be a "share the wealth" snow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015112312/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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These Hudson Bay HP's are going to be a common theme every now and then this winter season...seeding systems underneath with enough cold to produce snow.  The holiday weekend system has a similar look to what just happened this past weekend, except, this will have some tropical influence as well as the GOM.

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The Euro pretty much sucked with this past storm. Not saying thats gonna happen this time but it seems King Euro hasn't been up to par like it was a couple years ago.

True, we also have to take into consideration there isn't much model sampling down in Mexico and that tropical system will need to be monitored.  Remember the Super Bowl Blizzard last year???  Models saw it 6-7 days out, then completely disappeared Day 5-6, zilch....than all of a sudden models started bringing it back.  We just have to sit back and wait and see.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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The EURO had several busts last winter for sure, and it was mainly concerning snow amounts - too low.

 

The storm in a few days is looking flatter and the track seems to be pushing east with time. Now the GFS has rain to snow here on Friday and a high of 50° only on Thanksgiving.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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anybody check out the latest 00Z run GFS--- for IA it's much different (colder) then previous runs bringing FZRA then a little snow---

 

GFS for DSM--

THU 18Z 26-NOV   1.8     3.6    1029      89      99    0.45     573     550    FRI 00Z 27-NOV  -0.4    -0.1    1032      93      98    0.44     572     547    FRI 06Z 27-NOV  -1.6    -1.6    1036      81      84    0.13     573     545

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

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Some Tuesday odd and ends.

Here in GR we are still running at +5.8°(49.7°)  for November and while we will not break the all time warmest November record set of 46.6° we will none the less be well above average this month.  While there was a lot of snow in the Midwest this last weekend it did not find its way to the Twin Cities and they are still in the running to have only their 3rd snowless November on Record.  They already are in the top ten of the latest first snowfalls.

http://www.weather.gov/mpx/LateSnowSeasonStart

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Some Tuesday odd and ends.

Here in GR we are still running at +5.8°(49.7°)  for November and while we will not break the all time warmest November record set of 46.6° we will none the less be well above average this month.  While there was a lot of snow in the Midwest this last weekend it did not find its way to the Twin Cities and they are still in the running to have only their 3rd snowless November on Record.  They already are in the top ten of the latest first snowfalls.

http://www.weather.gov/mpx/LateSnowSeasonStart

It's prob going to be a trend this season up that way.  Unless we see some powerhouse cutters mid/late in the season, their only chance of seeing significant snows will be from Clippers/WAA snowfalls.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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We will get our storms late in the season.  For now not looking good. Postive AO NAO and soon EPO no bueno

Last couple days both the GFS/Euro have had individual runs showing a neutral AO/NAO developing around the 3rd with a neutral EPO/-WPO.  That actually would not be all that bad to be honest.  We shouldn't see the punishing cold and have systems continue rolling in from the west off the Pacific.

 

Meanwhile, 00z Euro Ensembles really blossoming a snowy signal to close out the month in the Plains...

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