November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Iowawx]

I have been hearing that this winter might be one with not a lot of snow. Getting a solid snowstorm here tonight, but I don't see anything promising for snow for quite some time. I sure hope we have an active winter season. 

[clintbeed1993]

Updated Hazard map....Nice. Dont know how much stock I put into but we'll see.

 

Yeah, NWS is getting really liberal on this Thanksgiving storm which is odd for them.  Already putting 40-50 percent chances of precip and we are still a week out.  New GFS says what snow.  Doesn't even have a storm so we will see I guess.

[Iowawx]

It will be hard to get much if anything after Thanksgiving with a large High Pressure over the midwest. 

[Geos]

The 13.4" I got today is 418% of normal November snowfall. In fact this area doesn't usually see that much in total until Christmas or even a little later.

 

If moisture laden storms from the Pacific are going to rule this winter, then we're in for a long winter. Given there is cold air at the right times.

[Maxim]

long range GFS looking like a snoozefest 

[Tom]

The battle begins with what happens to the AO between the GFS/EURO.  GFS suggesting the AO head towards neutral on the 29th...Euro showing signs sometime during the 1st week of December.  The Euro is also showing warming at 10mb in the same regions as the GFS.  Don't expect much storm activity till after the 3-5th of December in the longer range which systems can tap into broader based cold if the AO connection commences.  East Asian Theory suggests storminess Dec 5-9th and a stretch of persistent cold.  Wouldn't be surprised if there were a few clippers in this type of pattern down the road.

[NEJeremy]

[gosaints]

Classic nino signs showing up

[Tom]

Because clippers are fun, cold and windy with maybe an inch or two of snow. I should clarify that's what they are around here at least! You guys further east always get 6+" no matter what kind of storm. I'm hoping that's not what happens. Give me warm and dry vs clippers any day

 

There is a system in the first part of December that I think will show up around your region.  If the blocking sets up, which is showing signs it will, then clippers are almost a given...esp with how active the Pacific is getting.  It may in fact be a similar system that just hit us today.  Hard to say right now.

[Geos]

The battle begins with what happens to the AO between the GFS/EURO.  GFS suggesting the AO head towards neutral on the 29th...Euro showing signs sometime during the 1st week of December.  The Euro is also showing warming at 10mb in the same regions as the GFS.  Don't expect much storm activity till after the 3-5th of December in the longer range which systems can tap into broader based cold if the AO connection commences.  East Asian Theory suggests storminess Dec 5-9th and a stretch of persistent cold.  Wouldn't be surprised if there were a few clippers in this type of pattern down the road.

 

Pushing that vortex off the north pole is key in early December. That high pressure south of Alaska is very broad and is pushing on it. I can tell from those high wind speeds at that level ripping into North America from Siberia. The AO will switch to neutral or negative if that vortex gets pushed off the pole.

[Grizzcoat]

SEE deep snowpack-- see record cold. Waterloo,IA at 10:31pm was at -5F. Setting the record for the date. Spencer,IA was -4F also this morning. Both are firsts for the state this year (sub zero) with states like MN,ND not going below 0 yet

[Tom]

SEE deep snowpack-- see record cold. Waterloo,IA at 10:31pm was at -5F. Setting the record for the date. Spencer,IA was -4F also this morning. Both are firsts for the state this year (sub zero) with states like MN,ND not going below 0 yet

Those are remarkable lows for IA standards!  Incredible...

 

Meantime, 00z GFS trying to spin up a CO Low late month...Euro Ensembles are showing something similar in the extended.  Could be another west/east system as most ensembles members keep the system tracking from the Rockies to the East.  Something to watch as there will be enough cold air hangin' around.

[Tom]

00z GGEM agree's as well...this will prob be the next interesting system that can lay down a widespread snowfall.  I think this has a good chance of making the Plains folks pretty happy!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112200/gem_asnow_us_40.png

 

 

Many CFSv2 members continue to show a snowier west/central CONUS over the next 45 days.  You can almost see where the main trough/ridges are setting up.  Looks like a SW Flow pattern, ay???  It's been showing this run after run.

 

It's been pretty active over the last 4 weeks.  Seems like there is a system to track every 4 or 5 days, sometimes sooner.  

[OKwx2k4]

Dang GGEM is so close to me yet so far. :-( When the PV tanks things will get fun for me from mid-late December on though.

[Tom]

Dang GGEM is so close to me yet so far. :-( When the PV tanks things will get fun for me from mid-late December on though.

It's going to be a little while till things pick up down by you.  Ordinarily, you usually don't expect to see wintry precip till mid December, right?

[Tom]

Tonight's 00z runs are showing interesting trends for a wintry system developing in the central/southern Plains Day 8 and heads up towards the Lakes.  00z Euro showing a similar situation as the 00z GGEM....lays down a widespread snowfall.

 

The Euro shows a powerful Hurricane hitting the southern tip of the Baja and becomes entrenched into the flow of the pattern Day 7-8.  This could in future runs become a very large system due to its tropical influence.  Euro showing a lot of potential with this system.  Another blocking HP off the east coast would suggest a "cutter" type system.

 

Taking a look at the jet structure...this has some great potential...

 

 

[East Dubzz]

Holy cow the Euro is giving me a lot of rain for later this week, and temps almost reaching 60.

 

GEM also gives me 2" of rain. Looks like it's gonna be a wet Thanksgiving.

[OKwx2k4]

It's going to be a little while till things pick up down by you. Ordinarily, you usually don't expect to see wintry precip till mid December, right?

Yeah. Around the Dec 15th or so is usually almost always guaranteed to at least record some snow. I'm trying to rush things a little too fast. Lot of interesting things going on down the road though so I shouldn't be worried about it too much.

[Tom]

Current temp of 11F this morning...feels and looks like Winter out there today!  Been hearing the roads are really icy out there this morning.

 

Took some shots a few minutes ago...

 

 

It's too bad most of this snow will be gone by Thanksgiving...enjoy it while you can!

[OKwx2k4]

That's beautiful man.

[Tom]

Wow, ORD dipped down to 7F... 3 degrees shy of the 1880 record of (4F)...Lake Michigan looks like a "steam" bath...check out this article posted by WGN...

 

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/post-snowstorm-chill-ohare-bottoms-out-at-a-near-record-7-above-this-morning-aurora-hits-0-chill-has-lake-michigan-steaming

[GDR]

Looks like a nice little heat wave coming our way.

[Tom]

Looks like a nice little heat wave coming our way.

Brief...you may need your ice skates if the 12z GGEM is right for shopping on Black Friday...

 

Will probably start a thread for the Thanksgiving system on a potential ice event all the way down into TX/OK and the central Plains/Midwest...this system is very complex and models prob won't have a good handle on it till the energy is onshore this coming Tue/Wed.

[East Dubzz]

It did hit 4 degrees last night... Brrrr! Already back up to 27, though.

[Geos]

Hit 9° here. That's really something to see the lake already "steaming" away in November!

 

Lake temps down.

50° areas diminishing away...

 

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing signs of the HP pressing the overall system south for Thanksgiving day and also a little colder each run.  Not sure how much of this is snow or a mix but the 12z Euro starting to show a stripe of snow from NE/IA/WI on Thanksgiving Day/Black Friday.  Long ways away till the models figure this system out, but I think there is a possibility those that missed out on the snow this past Fri/Sat will have a shot at their first snows this coming week.

[Tom]

12z Euro moving in the right direction for the 2nd part of the Thanksgiving Day system that hangs back a piece in the Rockies which eventually kicks out into the southern Plains.  It's getting juicier as the interaction with the tropical system in Mexico becomes fully entrenched.  Euro spitting out huge snowfall totals in KS/NE thru Day 7-8.  Will post maps when fully loaded.

[Tom]

12z Euro...the wintry pattern continues to evolve...if this storm does in fact produce something close to these amounts, then folks from the Plains/Midwest/Lower Lakes would blow past November average snowfalls.

[Money]

Don't buy the euro solution. Will be too warm to snow in the great lakes region on thanksgiving/black friday 

[Tom]

Don't buy the euro solution. Will be too warm to snow in the great lakes region on thanksgiving/black friday 

Prob more of an icing event...ground temps are below 32F when the precip falls near you.  850's are the only concern at this point, which is really far out anyway.

[Maxim]

ORD 4 degrees colder than UGN? Makes no sense, but okay.

[GDR]

Don't buy the euro solution. Will be too warm to snow in the great lakes region on thanksgiving/black friday

I'm with you not buying it.

[Hawkeye]

I'm already seeing grass in my neighbor's front yard.  The rest of the front yards here are down to 2-3 inches.The backyard has a bit more, as always, but it has also clearly shrunk a bit.

[GDR]

Snow is melting a lot faster then I thought it would. Should be gone by thanksgiving here.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah this snow is going to be gone real quick. Between the very warm temps and the rain, it'll easily be all washed away by Thanksgiving.

[GDR]

[Money]

18z GFS is starting to show more signs of icing for the TD/BF storm.

[Iowa2015]

Interesting Euro Not exactly buying it But once agaon we be right on the edge 12 inches + or just 3 inches again only difference this time we be riding the northern edge

[Geos]

ORD 4 degrees colder than UGN? Makes no sense, but okay.

 

Yeah that was weird. And that ORD got down to 7° vs. 10° at UGN.

[Geos]

Some snow showing up on the backside on the GFS.