November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

I'm getting more and more worried about just rain here for the storm next Monday. Sounds about right

[GDR]

This is going to be one heck of a rain producer

[Tom]

12z GGEM goes nuclear...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015112412/gem_asnow_us_33.png

[jcwxguy]

toss it LOL, wow...the deeper area's in nebraska show 4-6 prior to saturday

[gabel23]

Ha, that's funny. We don't stand a chance at much of anything with the AO/NAO being positive. Systems are just too darn progressive....

[Tom]

Ha, that's funny. We don't stand a chance at much of anything with the AO/NAO being positive. Systems are just too darn progressive....

Some of the Euro members and CFSv2 members show a ton of snowfall in the Plains.  This pattern suggests a bowling ball type of pattern with a Hudson Bay HP over the top.

[jaster220]

Some of the Euro members and CFSv2 members show a ton of snowfall in the Plains.  This pattern suggests a bowling ball type of pattern with a Hudson Bay HP over the top.

 

Reading you LOUD-n-CLEAR Tom. I'm not sure why some seemingly are not.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing an interesting system to open up December near the Lakes/Midwest.  Looks very similar to what happened in late Oct with the remnants of Hurricane Patricia...this time, it will be the remnants of Hurricane Sandra.  I had my eye on this storm.  Let's see what happens.

[james1976]

12z Euro showing an interesting system to open up December near the Lakes/Midwest.  Looks very similar to what happened in late Oct with the remnants of Hurricane Patricia...this time, it will be the remnants of Hurricane Sandra.  I had my eye on this storm.  Let's see what happens.

I believe GFS is showing something as well.

[Tom]

Both the GFS/EURO have been missing the bowling ball systems in the longer range.  Here's a perfect example on the 12z EPS 3 days ago for the same time on 12z 12/1...

 

3 Days ago...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015112112/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

Here is today's 12z run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015112412/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

 

IMO, models are over-doing the ridging that goes on in Canada and are missing the jet cutting underneath, esp now since Winter is beginning to mature.  Going forward, 12z EPS suggests the same type of huge ridge smack dab over central North America.  Let's see if it continues with the same bias going forward.

[NEJeremy]

[Geos]

Made it to 42° today. Snow depth down to about 6". The snow is very dense, so it's going to take some rain to really work at the rest of it. 

Realized today how extensive the tree damage was. Piles of branches starting to show up every where. 

[GDR]

That will be a no show for that system. Throw in the towel if you have one.

[Tom]

12z Euro snowfall to close out this month...portions of the Plains/Midwest/Lakes will be ahead of schedule in terms of snowfall should this forecast verify.

 

Euro still showing a Midwest/Lakes storm to open December...looking interesting...

[jcwxguy]

Lincoln doughnut 

[Geos]

As it warmed up, it clouded over here. Still have 3-4" of very dense snow on the ground. Started walking around the yard and picked up numbers small branches that broke off during the snowstorm.

Sitting at 46°.

[centralweather44]

As always. That and we are right on the edge. No surprise really though. Long range calling for back in the 40s after Tuesday. With me being a contractor at least it allows us to get some more work done before the ground freezes. Things are still super muddy after the inch of rain last week b

[Maxim]

The literal opposite of the CFS model for december.

Still feel this way?

[OKwx2k4]

Still feel this way?

Post what the model showed that day. Lol.

[gosaints]

Post what the model showed that day. Lol.

Almost a carbon copy of what it is showing now for december

[OKwx2k4]

Almost a carbon copy of what it is showing now for december

There's no way possible Canada is 10 degrees above average when December is over.

[Maxim]

There's no way possible Canada is 10 degrees above average when December is over.

Wouldn't doubt if some spots end up around that range. The fact that you think the majority of the CONUS will end up with negative departures this December is pretty laughable. What sort of evidence do you have to back that up?

[gosaints]

There's no way possible Canada is 10 degrees above average when December is over.

To be fair you said the opposite of cfs would literally happen. Which will be even further from the truth

[Maxim]

Anyway, the temperature sensor at ORD is really starting to get ridiculous now. 29F for a low this morning, which not only is several degrees colder than every other surrounding sites (even the rural areas), but also the coldest low in the state. Seems awfully suspicious, especially considering that ORD is pretty urbanized. Was quite a bit colder than surrounding areas yesterday with high temps too. 

[Tom]

00z GFS hits NE pretty good to close out the month...

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I am just looking at that Tom. Nws Hastings is really downplaying any real snow accumulations with this storm. Gfs would beg to differ. I am on my phone and there is even more snow by hour 141.

[Tom]

00z Euro with a nice snowstorm for the Midwest on Sunday...targets IA/E NE/MN with 6-12"...heading towards the Ensemble runs over the past couple days...IA may get back 2 back weekends of significant snows in the month of November!  Pretty cray cray....

 

@ GDR, keep manifesting those torch's/rain storms....

[gosaints]

00z Euro with a nice snowstorm for the Midwest on Sunday...targets IA/E NE/MN with 6-12"...heading towards the Ensemble runs over the past couple days...IA may get back 2 back weekends of significant snows in the month of November! Pretty cray cray....

 

@ GDR, keep manifesting those torch's/rain storms....

I have gotten snow here in may when the month as a whole has gone way above average. It will snow in december and I will be way above average in temperature.

 

It snowed for you last week and now you are above average.

[bud2380]

Looks like Sunday into Monday is going to be interesting for some people on here. Might be time to start a new thread for that one. Euro as Tom shows slams part of nw Iowa into Minnesota and parts of Nebraska. Canadian is similar but a bit further east with accumulating snow, showing a few inches even into e Iowa. Gfs has been lagging behind with this storm for days now but the 6z run is finally starting to come around. Models are all showing mild air moving in behind the storm though for the extended.

[Tom]

Happy Thanksgiving!  It's a balmy and humid 53F temp with damp/grey skies...might even hit 60F later this afternoon.  Snow is gone with only small piles here and there.  Might not even need a jacket today it feels so warm outside.  Compared to the last 2 Thanksgiving's around here, this one has to be 20-25 degrees warmer.

 

I'm considering leaving for AZ and staying there for an extended period.  The upcoming couple weeks don't really excite me and I'd rather enjoy some sun and pool time.  Low 70's and sunshine beats 40's and rain/overcast...depressing!

[jcwxguy]

12z gfs nails nebraska and iowa sunday/monday

[james1976]

Any 12z snowfall maps?

[WBadgersW]

Decent start to winter for Iowa people. Happy Thanksgiving everybody

[CentralNebWeather]

I like that map for the Nebraska guys.

[Tom]

12z GFS...another look...if the Euro is still on board, I'll start a Thread for this system...

[OKwx2k4]

To be fair you said the opposite of cfs would literally happen. Which will be even further from the truth

Yeah. Find the posts where I then corrected the sarcastic remark I was making that same day. I don't have that kind of spare time to do it for you. I believe I said -2 departures over the US Rockies and Canadian Rockies and into the western areas of the plains and on down into the southern US. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. Not going to run from it but at least show all the things I said. I said what I did based off of several things. Pattern progression and analogs had a part to play in what I forecasted. We'll see where things are when January gets here. I'll gladly concede defeat if you're correct.

[Tom]

I went ahead and started a separate Thread for what looks to be a significant snowstorm this weekend in the Plains/Midwest....

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks Tom

[Tom]

The high Plains and Arrowhead of MN need to fill up with snow so we don't have arctic air modify as much...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/Upper_Midwest/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015112705_Upper_Midwest.jpg

 

 

 

Today's U.S. snow cover up to 34.5%...we'll add to that this weekend....by end of November, this month may end up Top 3 highest percentage in past 15+ years.

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015112705_National.jpg

 

 

 

Interesting trends in North American snow cover during the month of November over the past 50 years...the past 5 years have been setting the trends...wonder what this will look like over the next 10-20 years as we head towards Solar Cycle minimum.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

That's pretty neat. As the predominant +AO winters come to an end over the next few years, it will be very interesting to see what happens in that particular graph.