November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

00z Euro a little different look this run with several different pieces of energy coming out of the Rockies and head due east across the Plains/Midwest/Upper Midwest/Lakes. Strong HP centered over southern Canada allows these pieces of energy to cut underneath coming in from the Pacific.  This is a pattern that has been illustrated by some of the Global models and may be a hint of the Winter pattern ahead.  A lot of places will see their first accumulating snows of the season if this holds up.

 

 

[Maxim]

Temps look too warm at the surface to support any appreciable accumulations it looks like, too early to say for sure though.

[Money]

Maxim and gosaints are both trolls

[OKwx2k4]

MJO is supposed to gain more amplitude, so for now not looking at the COD anytime sooon.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

Thank you for the correction. Apologies for the misinformation.

[gosaints]

I believe Tom and I have done a fair enough job explaining why. However there have been little to no explanations for warmth other than "The model says...".

 

A lot of what I have stated has only been modeled or is in the process of changing AFTER I stated it.

Yes lets throw away the models for the winter!

[gosaints]

If all weather forecasting were done by models we would have zero accuracy in weather forecasting.

Ya we should just ignore them. Whats your prediction for temperature departures in december?

[Tom]

Coldest night of the season @ ORD which bottomed out at 25F.  We dropped below freezing around midnight and had a good 8 hours sub-freezing, majority of the hours were in the upper 20's.  Another heavy frost set in and should take care of the remaining leaves that are on bushes/brush/tree's.  I'm going to take advantage of the tranquil weather this weekend and finish up winterizing, raking and miscellaneous things.

 

I see problems with the GFS in the long range as it's usual bias of swinging troughs to fast through North America.  Euro Ensembles have been very consistent on how the pattern is evolving.  Once the mid week systems exits, the Greenland Block builds and slows down the hemispheric flow over N.A. and the NE PAC ridge pops which buckles the jet and arctic air infiltrates the lower 48.  There are several systems that the Euro is forecasting over the next 10 days that have potential to be snow producers.  Euro Ensembles/Control are on board for a wintry/cold Thanksgiving week in the west/central CONUS as yet another deep trough carves out in the West.  Folks in the Plains will be in the deep Freeze around Turkey Day!  I have pretty good confidence at a storm system hitting Thanksgiving week.  2 reasons why...1) Bearing Sea Rule....2) East Asian Theory.....

 

Looking out farther, East Asian Theory has proven to be very accurate this season thus far.  It has accurately portrayed what has evolved over the last 2 weeks when I honed in on the placement of the Siberian Air-Mass which built up NW of Japan a couple weeks ago which correlated to the build up of Siberian Air in NW NAMER.  Now, we are seeing the models latch on to our first shot at Ol' Man Winter within the next 7-10 days.

 

Day 7-10 near Eurasia, a massive 1059mb HP is poised to unleash brutal Siberian Air in that part of the world while a big storm tracks just NW of Japan.  I'll continue to monitor how this pattern evolves as we'll be entering December by this time.  Overall, the pattern seems to remain cold/wintry over the next 2-3 weeks once we get passed this week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111406/gfs_mslpa_sd_wpac_42.png

 

[Money]

12z GFS looking really good in the 21s t -23rd timeframe

[Money]

Swath of 4-8 inches from KS/NE northeast into jowa and most of southern/central WI

[Tom]

12z GFS looking really good in the 21s t -23rd timeframe

Ya buddy!  Turning the corner for sure...looking like the Euro/Control during this time frame...

[Tom]

12z GFS...it actually looks like what the 12z Euro had yesterday or the day before...a wave develops along the arctic boundary near the Pan Handle and ejects NE into the Lower Lakes...

 

 

[james1976]

12z GFS...it actually looks like what the 12z Euro had yesterday or the day before...a wave develops along the arctic boundary near the Pan Handle and ejects NE into the Lower Lakes...

I just looked at the run. Yes! I was gonna say the same. It's latching onto the Euro. That Control run you showed had a lot of us burried in snow by Thanksgiving! Could be overdone but either way there are a lot of signs that Winter is knocking on the door.

[james1976]

Does the GFS surface temps support this?

[Tom]

Does the GFS surface temps support this?

Yippers...whoever is on the NW side of this frontal boundary will get snow to stick...temps in the 20's.  -EPO doing its dirty work and driving the arctic air south.  We had 2 winters in a row to see how this can play a roll in our weather pattern.  Def seeing signs that it will be a 3rd Winter in a row where a -EPO will make an appearance here and there.  We didn't have the blocking last 2 years, this year seems like all the teleconnecitons will work together from time to time.

[Geos]

Does the GFS surface temps support this?

 

Yes it does. Around 30° by you during the storm, then temps fall into the 20s for Sunday. Edit: Tom answered quicker! haha

[james1976]

Is Euro and GGEM out yet?

[Geos]

I can't tell if the GGEM has the system yet or it is somewhere else.

[OKwx2k4]

Ya we should just ignore them. Whats your prediction for temperature departures in december?

The literal opposite of the CFS model for december.

[james1976]

Got quiet in here. Any word on the Euro?

[james1976]

DMX:
OVERALL...GIVEN THE  
SEASON AND THE COOLER CYCLONIC PATTERN...THERE APPEARS TO BE A  
LIKELIHOOD THAT WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA AROUND SIX TO EIGHT DAYS FROM NOW. HOWEVER...AT THIS  
RANGE IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO PREDICT ANY DETAILS OF  
TIMING...LOCATION...OR AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL SET UP WOULD  
NOT SEEM TO FAVOR ANYTHING HEAVY.

[Geos]

Got quiet in here. Any word on the Euro?

 

Don't have access to all the map, but I this map is a bit telling. Low pressure riding along a thermal contrast boundary.

 

[Tom]

Been outside today all day long taking care of things around the house.  Only about half way done...round 2 tomorrow!  12z Euro still shows a stripe of 2-5" snow for parts of N IA/S WI/N MI next Saturday with a nice punch of arctic air that weekend.  Daytime high temps next Sunday/Monday are in the mid/upper 20's from NE/IA/S WI and points north.

 

Of more significance, I was waiting for either the GFS/Euro to pick up on a pre-Thanksgiving system and the Euro on Day 10 is showing signs of something Big.  The model has over-running snows falling from NE/IA/MN/Dakotas next Tuesday.  Utilizing the Bearing Sea Rule/East Asia Theory, both long range forecasting methods had a large system.  Something to keep an eye on.

[james1976]

Been outside today all day long taking care of things around the house.  Only about half way done...round 2 tomorrow!  12z Euro still shows a stripe of 2-5" snow for parts of N IA/S WI/N MI next Saturday with a nice punch of arctic air that weekend.  Daytime high temps next Sunday/Monday are in the mid/upper 20's from NE/IA/S WI and points north.

 

Of more significance, I was waiting for either the GFS/Euro to pick up on a pre-Thanksgiving system and the Euro on Day 10 is showing signs of something Big.  The model has over-running snows falling from NE/IA/MN/Dakotas next Tuesday.  Utilizing the Bearing Sea Rule/East Asia Theory, both long range forecasting methods had a large system.  Something to keep an eye on.

Thanks for the update!

[gosaints]

The literal opposite of the CFS model for december.

Ok ill wait for my -5 departure

[james1976]

18z GFS mostly a no-show for next weekend. Looks like Euro is holding ground atleast. DMX said with this pattern they feel there is a good chance at some snow next weekend with a lot of shortwaves moving thru the cyclonic flow.

[OKwx2k4]

Ok ill wait for my -5 departure

Ok. I'll concede there a little bit. More like -2 not -5. Lol.

[gosaints]

Ok. I'll concede there a little bit. More like -2 not -5. Lol.

Ok... All in fun

[OKwx2k4]

Ok... All in fun

Same here.

[Iowa2015]

18z Gfs Dry & cold though Thanksgiving after this week storm

[Maxim]

Ok. I'll concede there a little bit. More like -2 not -5. Lol.

I could see your area possibly having some slight negative departures. For the rest of us though, solidly above normal. It's fine though, it can't be any worse than last December.

[gabel23]

What a gorgeous day, I was able to put up quite a few of my x mas lights. I hope to finish tomorrow, things look wet next week. I'm very excited to see lezaks winter forecast.....I'm a little worried about the lack of arctic air so far this fall. Will be interesting to see how much that plays into the LRC.....

[OKwx2k4]

I could see your area possibly having some slight negative departures. For the rest of us though, solidly above normal. It's fine though, it can't be any worse than last December.

We'll just have to ultimately wait and see. There are clearly 2 distinct camps everywhere I've read. No different than on here. Looking at the top 20 warmest Novembers for many places in this subforum and contrasting that with the Decembers that followed says that it's anyone's game here.

[james1976]

Anyone have a snowfall map from 00z GFS for next Friday?? Locking with the Euro!

[Tom]

Anyone have a snowfall map from 00z GFS for next Friday?? Locking with the Euro!

Pretty impressive run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111500/gfs_asnow_ncus_28.png

[james1976]

Pretty impressive run...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015111500/gfs_asnow_ncus_28.png

WOW

[james1976]

That looks like a wide swath of 6+.
And it's only 5-6 days out. Might be locking into something.

[Tom]

That looks like a wide swath of 6+.

And it's only 5-6 days out. Might be locking into something.

These type of waves are hard for the models to handle.  It's nothing compared to a large storm system where they can get a better read on them.  Nonetheless, I can see how this type of event can happen or not, esp along an arctic frontal boundary.  There's also a 2nd wave that comes into the Rockies that the 00z GFS is trying to see, but never gets organized.

[james1976]

Tonight's Euro run should be that much more interesting. It's been seeing this wave for the last few runs now, but more for the Saturday timeframe.

[james1976]

One thing is looking certain.....it's gonna get much colder around here. Below normal cold.

[james1976]

GFS is bouncing around a lot. Like you said, having a hard time trying to figure out what to do with this wave. First it was next Sunday...and then nothing....and now Friday. Prolly will change a lot more but it will make for some interesting runs. Early to mid week looks very wet. An active week nonetheless. Bodes well for the LRC!