Halperin quoting one democrat and 2 Republican sources saying they would be shocked if Harris won Wisconsin.

Great stuff Hawks.

Wouldn't say you have too much sun, you just don't have enough snow!

I didn't realize that TargetSmart data was available on a public website. It's actually the data NBC uses to populate it's early voting map, so it must be fairly legit. It has some interesting findings in there that go against some of the prevailing narrative of super high women turnout: Nationwide Women vote share compared to early voting in 2020: +0.2, compared to 2022: +0.7 Men vote share compared to early voting in 2020: +0.4, compared to 2022: -0.6 Pennsylvania Women vote share vs 2020: -0.5, 2022: -0.8 Men vote share vs 2020: +0.7, 2022: +0.8 Michigan W vote share vs 2020: -0.8, 2022: -1.3 M vote share vs 2020: +0.7, 2022: +1.2 Wisconsin W vote share vs 2020: -0.3, 2022: -1.3 M vote share vs 2020: +0.3, 2022: +0.3 Sun Belt states are running fairly close to their previous cycle numbers (+/- 0.2) except for Nevada which is running -1.3 for women and +0.2 for men. Most of those numbers would not be a huge cause of concern or celebration for either side. The one interesting pattern that sticks out to me though are the numbers compared to 2022, which are down a point or more for women in some battleground states. A signal that the abortion issue isn't as huge of a motivating factor when it isn't as fresh in the mind?

DeSantis is a GOAT governor in terms of flipping their state. His pandemic response and BASED behavior essentially revolutionized the state.