I tried to build a composite map to match the current pattern. I used several years, but 2010, 2016, and 1977 were used extra. I think it turned out pretty close to what the monthly average may be but I had trouble getting the troughing right for southern Alaska. But what I found interesting was how I could not find a year that had quite the same pattern as this one. Most of the time when you get a deep east coast trough its accompanied by a full latitude west coast ridge, or its more of an east-west gradient. We seem to have a blend of two patterns. Essentially there are no other years quite like this one. So either that means we've found something new or models will adjust towards something else later in the month.

12z ICON got a bit wetter.

I think LOT area is good for a 4-6" advisory event w/ pockets of 6"+ not out of the question. What was looking like a weakening clipper is not any longer. Sign of the pattern as systems are over performing and the models showing more strength as we get closer to "game time". The meso-scale banding with this clipper is looking quite interesting...perfect pivot for N IL and then maybe, just maybe, tack on another 1" or so from the lake into COOK and Lake counties in IL.

Lost power for ~6 hours overnight came back on a couple hours ago.

3-5” still seems like a solid bet here. No complaints from me if that happens.