I do like what I'm seeing wrt to the building west-based -NAO as we close out DEC. The 4 corners low ejecting out into the Plains after Christmas should be our next Winter Storm to track. TBH, I have no clue where this storm tracks and what the potential outcome will be. Nevertheless, it will be fun tracking it during Christmas Week as the models digest the immense blocking blossoming over the higher lat's. While the Northern U.S. continues to get blasted by snows and colder weather, it won't be long till this Death Ridge vanish's away after Christmas. The JMA weeklies for Week 3-4 show a 500mb pattern that is different than the one we are experiencing right now and more favorable to produce colder air to support snow chances. New Year, New Pattern? Maybe, but for the Southwest/Intermountain West it looks like the same ol' story is being forecasted. The Growing -NAO and less of SER should create a storm track right through the heart of our SUB. Temp/Precip...Very Very warm for the West and into the Heartland...is it right??? I will say, this 500mb pattern usually produces cold enough air to make its way south of the border to produce winter storms. Lots of precip over much of the SUB. The tropical PAC connection is NOT letting up anytime soon. Gosh, I feel for those ppl living in the PAC NW and the record flooding hitting that region. SST Anomaly shows the NE PAC warmth that has made its presence...

Today will be our mildest day since the day before Thanksgiving with highs in the mid to upper 40's. Rain heavy at times arrives after midnight and continues into tomorrow morning. Combined with the melting snow and ice we could see some local flooding. Temperatures will rise into the low 50's toward morning before a strong cold front passes through with maybe a thunderstorm and then temperatures crash tomorrow during the day reaching near freezing by 5pm. There is a wind advisory in effect tonight into tomorrow so watch for some power outtages in the usual spots across the county. We then look to see temperatures bouncing below normal on Saturday, Monday and near normal Sunday, Tuesday and Christmas Eve. Our next chance of some snow or rain looks possible by Tuesday.

Latest drought monitor and the past 30 days.

Ehhh... I was just hoping for a pattern change for the holidays. Zero chance of that happening now so I guess I will move on. Caribbean cruise is next unless we come up with an impromptu trip for early January because nature refuses to give us a wintry scene here. Literally no idea what you are seeing on the 00Z EPS. Not a bad pattern? Do you want the ski resorts to open at all this year? 10 days out and its the same garbage. This is almost January and this is another AR pattern. Not sure how it could be much worse.

Looks lik 2000-2010 period had the most coverage of White Christmas's across the Central CONUS and the main Sub of ours.