The EPS has just treaded water the past 3/4 runs. But there are some absolute dawgs (20-25%ish) on today's 12z. This has a chance to snap back quickly in a very positive direction inside of day 10.

Serious question... how much less data are the models getting right now compared to a few years ago? Specifics would be appreciated. Not saying there isn't less data, but I'm not aware of some kind of massive data loss overall. I wasn't paying much attention to the system yesterday since it was not looking that significant for my area, but looking back on the 500 mb maps, it appears that the vort responsible basically came straight out of the arctic circle. When you have a situation like that, you are more likely to see model errors -- occasionally drastic ones -- given the lack of a more extensive RAOB network in Canada. There are relatively few RAOB sites the farther north you go in Canada and they are spaced far apart, but that has been a longstanding issue. My guess would be that this largely explains the model failure that happened yesterday. In the bigger picture, I think the chronic fast Pacific flow has been giving the models fits in recent years and why it feels like the models have been getting worse in the handling of medium range systems and long range patterns.

Feels like the door is still cracked open in week 2. Other than the usual GFS shenanigans, doesn’t feel like much has changed.

Seems like the EPS has been a lot less rock solid this winter.

Yeah, mentioned it recently but since we just had a strong Nino 2 winters ago, the historical likelihood of another strong or even high end moderate one so soon are very low.