3/10 - 3/11 Possible Snowstorm

[Andrew NE]

The system isnt on shore yet so there will likely be some movement... but I couldnt tell ya what direction.

[Jaycee]

Canadian is definitely having some of that heavy snow action.

 

 

[NEJeremy]

I just hope this thing doesn't shift far enough west to take Omaha out of the heavier snowfall. It'd be nice to have a wider band for everyone here in eastern Nebraska. Omaha NWS said there could be a band of 4-6" somewhere in the area.

[Hawkeye]

UK has jumped sw, now has best snow from Lincoln southward..  Omaha doesn't even get 0.20" precip this run.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-060_0000.gif

[Minny_Weather]

Someone in the OAX area could see WSW criteria if trends continue well. Gotta get the Euro on board first.

[Tom]

Someone in the OAX area could see WSW criteria if trends continue well. Gotta get the Euro on board first.

I can see that happening, esp with the GEFS trending wetter for OMA/LNK...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017030912/066/qpf_acc.conus.png

[Minny_Weather]

12z Euro seems to be a bit late coming in. Typically starts to come in about now. This will definitely be a nailbiter, if the Euro is on board this storm is basically gonna happen.

 

GEFS also pleases me. All but 3 or 4 members seem to give us >2".

 

EDIT: Euro starting to come in finally.

[gosaints]

EURO SW and weaker

[Minny_Weather]

Euro has a Max amount of ~4" in NE KS. 3" in LNK. Makes people in Omaha depressed. This is disregarding the areas which got spoiled in the last storm, who may be spoiled again.

[Tom]

I'd go with 3-6" with isolated spots up to 8". The snowfall rates are what may drive the NWS offices to issue a warning if trends continue.

[Minny_Weather]

I'd go with 3-6" with isolated spots up to 8". The snowfall rates are what may drive the NWS offices to issue a warning if trends continue.

I have to agree. Euro is a weak outliar right now, especially looking at the fact that no other models are trending weak right now and we're about 36 hours out from the onset. Wouldn't be surprised to see a watch issued after 18z runs come out if those said trends continue.

[Minny_Weather]

Wow. 18Z NAM shows a sad, yet realistic scenario where dry air kills most SE Nebraskans.

 

http://hostthenpost.org/uploads/c82ea18c202f9f4c5830e7b45bd50fbe.png

[Tom]

18z GFS has the heaviest band SW...hits LNK hard...and western burbs of OMA...

[NEJeremy]

first time this winter I've had the "heavy snow" wording in my forecast. Also highest amount forecasted for one storm for me. I hope it verifies! I've already promised my daughter we'd go sledding on Saturday morning!

 

Friday Night

Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 29. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

[Minny_Weather]

... Wow. Gotta take it for a grain of 18z salt, but holy paralyzing snowstorm on 18z GFS 

 

http://hostthenpost.org/uploads/d29608cee29cd865ba41256bf0dbb8c3.png

[NEJeremy]

18z GFS has the heaviest band SW...hits LNK hard...and western burbs of OMA...

Yuck, that gives us only 2-3" now in Omaha.... I guess it's the 18Z so we'll see what the 0Z does tonight.

[Minny_Weather]

 

first time this winter I've had the "heavy snow" wording in my forecast. Also highest amount forecasted for one storm for me. I hope it verifies! I've already promised my daughter we'd go sledding on Saturday morning!

 

Friday Night

Snow, mainly after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 29. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

OAX still doesn't like LNK. Don't see why they are treating Omaha so well and Lincoln so poorly when most models have trended towards giving at least both semi-healthy amounts. They have us getting an inch and that's it.

 

Friday Night

Snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 21. East wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 33. East wind 6 to 9 mph.

 

 

The HWO is also very confident that areas West of LNK will not see much snow, which GFS and Euro have both suggested the contrary.

 

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

 

A band of snow is forecast to develop across the area Friday night

into Saturday morning. Highest accumulations are expected over

eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa where three to six inches is

possible. Trace to two inch amounts are forecast for the western

parts of the outlook area from Albion to Lincoln to Beatrice

westward.

 

Remember to follow the forecast through the event and expect some

forecast changes.

[FarmerRick]

18z GFS has the heaviest band SW...hits LNK hard...and western burbs of OMA...

 

 

I see an OmaDome forming...   

[james1976]

Thats a narrow band!

[NH4NU]

Kind of surprised that there's not even an HWO for OAX at this point.

[FarmerRick]

Kind of surprised that there's not even an HWO for OAX at this point.

 

 

If the track moves another 50-75 miles west, there won't be any need.

[NH4NU]

If the track moves another 50-75 miles west, there won't be any need.

Good point. Not completely sold on NAM and would imagine it becomes an outlier if GFS/Ensembles stay consistent. Time will tell!

[Minny_Weather]

Kind of surprised that there's not even an HWO for OAX at this point.

OAX is always freaky about HWOs and I have never understood it. There was one time where they put the HWO up on the homepage and both sections said "No hazardous weather is expected." Yet some thing like this comes up and they don't put it on the homepage. Here's the HWO for today if you want to see it:

 

 

 

993

FLUS43 KOAX 092128

HWOOAX

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE

328 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

 

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-

042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101130-

Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-

Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-

Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-

Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-

Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-

328 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST

IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST

NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

 

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

 

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

 

A band of snow is forecast to develop across the area Friday night

into Saturday morning. Highest accumulations are expected over

eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa where three to six inches is

possible. Trace to two inch amounts are forecast for the western

parts of the outlook area from Albion to Lincoln to Beatrice

westward.

 

Remember to follow the forecast through the event and expect some

forecast changes.

 

Snow, or a mixture of rain and snow, will also be possible Sunday

into early Monday. Highest accumulations are expected across

southwest Iowa and far northeast Nebraska where two to three

inches are possible. Snow totals will decrease with westward

extent across the forecast area.

 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

 

$

[Tom]

Both NAM/GFS weak. Kinda sad to see this dissipate. Maybe LNK gets lucky.

[Andrew NE]

I figured those juiced up totals were not realistic, it's been the trend all winter! Another weak turd!

[Minny_Weather]

I can't wait for dry air to invade at the last second and give LNK .5"!

[Minny_Weather]

Wow... 00z Euro brings one of the biggest shifts I've ever seen. It keeps the trend of the highest totals not being in a snowband, but more in a big flat blob. Peak total is 5" near Hebron, NE, aka by the KS border on US-81. Needless to say, this one will be a nailbiter, and it will continue to be one as RAP and HRRR come into range.

[Andrew NE]

I wouldn't sweat it much. Euro hasn't been very good all winter. We shall see in the next 24 hours.

[Minny_Weather]

I wouldn't sweat it much. Euro hasn't been very good all winter. We shall see in the next 24 hours.

Oh trust me, you're right about the Euro not doing well. And none of the NWS offices are listening to it either. Definitely agree with the max totals, but the track is completely unrealistic to me, especially since it is the only model to be further West. I am saying it will be a nailbiter much like every system has this Winter. We know what the best snowfall amounts should be. Question is where will they be? We'll have to wait tomorrow to get more hints.

[NEJeremy]

this is quickly turning into a weak turd of a system. amounts have been dropped to 1-3" across the area. what a joke.

[Minny_Weather]

... Wow. That GFS run makes me speechless.

[Minny_Weather]

Well this is an outlier.  (15Z RAP)

 

http://hostthenpost.org/uploads/6e037971d874977c94f7cf1274c8a1ff.png

[NEJeremy]

Omaha NWS has dropped the totals to

[Minny_Weather]

Well this sucks. Went from a full blown storm to maybe nothing in two model runs. Looks like our lowest seasonal snowfall record may not be safe after all.

 

If the air were a bit more humid we'd be looking at better chances. If the air DOES get more humid, not all hope is lost.

[Jaycee]

How much more poorly could the models have handled this?? More importantly the GFS. If we get zilch then the GFS really friggin sucked. EURO actually handled it quite well.

 

On the other hand, Jim Flowers mentioned that "dry air" isn't a factor because this is a WAA type of snow with plenty of moisture. Then again this is also the guy that predicted above average snowfall this winter so....

[Minny_Weather]

How much more poorly could the models have handled this?? More importantly the GFS. If we get zilch then the GFS really friggin sucked. EURO actually handled it quite well.

 

On the other hand, Jim Flowers mentioned that "dry air" isn't a factor because this is a WAA type of snow with plenty of moisture. Then again this is also the guy that predicted above average snowfall this winter so....

Dry air is a ton to overcome. Doesn't mean we won't see a single snowflake, but the dry air that limited our snow during the last system will do the same for this one.

[ToastedRavs]

Nice band moving through tonight. Definitely outperformed the models from this morning. May end up with a good half inch or an inch from this band. Sad, that an inch is outperformance!

[Hawkeye]

Nice band moving through tonight. Definitely outperformed the models from this morning. May end up with a good half inch or an inch from this band. Sad, that an inch is outperformance!

 

The Des Moines nws tweeted they had 1.2" so far.  Some models went so dry they removed all snow, so that was clearly wrong.

[NEJeremy]

Ha! The NWS has completely removed the snow chances for tonight and tomorrow. In about 36 hours we went from 100% snow, heavy snow possible, and 4-7" forecast to now not even getting any measurable snow. What a change in the models. Not sure what the GFS was smoking this entire week.

[ToastedRavs]

The Des Moines nws tweeted they had 1.2" so far. Some models went so dry they removed all snow, so that was clearly wrong.

I am sure they sent that out reluctantly since they are so warm biased over there. It's sickening how much they love the warmth