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3/10 - 3/11 Possible Snowstorm

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#101
FarmerRick

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:16 PM

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Kind of surprised that there's not even an HWO for OAX at this point.

 

 

If the track moves another 50-75 miles west, there won't be any need.



#102
NH4NU

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:20 PM

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If the track moves another 50-75 miles west, there won't be any need.


Good point. Not completely sold on NAM and would imagine it becomes an outlier if GFS/Ensembles stay consistent. Time will tell!
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#103
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:37 PM

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Kind of surprised that there's not even an HWO for OAX at this point.

OAX is always freaky about HWOs and I have never understood it. There was one time where they put the HWO up on the homepage and both sections said "No hazardous weather is expected." Yet some thing like this comes up and they don't put it on the homepage. Here's the HWO for today if you want to see it:

 

 

 


993
FLUS43 KOAX 092128
HWOOAX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
328 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-101130-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
328 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A band of snow is forecast to develop across the area Friday night
into Saturday morning. Highest accumulations are expected over
eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa where three to six inches is
possible. Trace to two inch amounts are forecast for the western
parts of the outlook area from Albion to Lincoln to Beatrice
westward.

Remember to follow the forecast through the event and expect some
forecast changes.

Snow, or a mixture of rain and snow, will also be possible Sunday
into early Monday. Highest accumulations are expected across
southwest Iowa and far northeast Nebraska where two to three
inches are possible. Snow totals will decrease with westward
extent across the forecast area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

$

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#104
Tom

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:46 PM

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Both NAM/GFS weak. Kinda sad to see this dissipate. Maybe LNK gets lucky.

#105
Andrew NE

Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:47 PM

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I figured those juiced up totals were not realistic, it's been the trend all winter! Another weak turd!

#106
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 09:09 PM

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I can't wait for dry air to invade at the last second and give LNK .5"!


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#107
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:04 PM

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Wow... 00z Euro brings one of the biggest shifts I've ever seen. It keeps the trend of the highest totals not being in a snowband, but more in a big flat blob. Peak total is 5" near Hebron, NE, aka by the KS border on US-81. Needless to say, this one will be a nailbiter, and it will continue to be one as RAP and HRRR come into range.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#108
Andrew NE

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:07 PM

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I wouldn't sweat it much. Euro hasn't been very good all winter. We shall see in the next 24 hours.

#109
LNK_Weather

Posted 09 March 2017 - 10:19 PM

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I wouldn't sweat it much. Euro hasn't been very good all winter. We shall see in the next 24 hours.

Oh trust me, you're right about the Euro not doing well. And none of the NWS offices are listening to it either. Definitely agree with the max totals, but the track is completely unrealistic to me, especially since it is the only model to be further West. I am saying it will be a nailbiter much like every system has this Winter. We know what the best snowfall amounts should be. Question is where will they be? We'll have to wait tomorrow to get more hints.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#110
NEJeremy

Posted 10 March 2017 - 06:50 AM

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this is quickly turning into a weak turd of a system. amounts have been dropped to 1-3" across the area. what a joke.


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#111
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 March 2017 - 08:05 AM

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... Wow. That GFS run makes me speechless.
  • NEJeremy likes this

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#112
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 March 2017 - 09:59 AM

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Well this is an outlier. :lol: (15Z RAP)

 

6e037971d874977c94f7cf1274c8a1ff.png


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#113
NEJeremy

Posted 10 March 2017 - 01:05 PM

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Omaha NWS has dropped the totals to <1". What a fricking joke.

#114
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 March 2017 - 02:08 PM

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Well this sucks. Went from a full blown storm to maybe nothing in two model runs. Looks like our lowest seasonal snowfall record may not be safe after all.

 

If the air were a bit more humid we'd be looking at better chances. If the air DOES get more humid, not all hope is lost.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#115
Illinois_WX

Posted 10 March 2017 - 02:56 PM

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How much more poorly could the models have handled this?? More importantly the GFS. If we get zilch then the GFS really friggin sucked. EURO actually handled it quite well.

 

On the other hand, Jim Flowers mentioned that "dry air" isn't a factor because this is a WAA type of snow with plenty of moisture. Then again this is also the guy that predicted above average snowfall this winter so....


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ‚Äč 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#116
LNK_Weather

Posted 10 March 2017 - 03:08 PM

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How much more poorly could the models have handled this?? More importantly the GFS. If we get zilch then the GFS really friggin sucked. EURO actually handled it quite well.

 

On the other hand, Jim Flowers mentioned that "dry air" isn't a factor because this is a WAA type of snow with plenty of moisture. Then again this is also the guy that predicted above average snowfall this winter so....

Dry air is a ton to overcome. Doesn't mean we won't see a single snowflake, but the dry air that limited our snow during the last system will do the same for this one.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 6/6/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/9/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 5 (Last: 6/6/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#117
ToastedRavs

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:01 PM

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Nice band moving through tonight. Definitely outperformed the models from this morning. May end up with a good half inch or an inch from this band. Sad, that an inch is outperformance!

#118
Hawkeye

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:14 PM

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Nice band moving through tonight. Definitely outperformed the models from this morning. May end up with a good half inch or an inch from this band. Sad, that an inch is outperformance!

 

The Des Moines nws tweeted they had 1.2" so far.  Some models went so dry they removed all snow, so that was clearly wrong.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#119
NEJeremy

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:17 PM

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Ha! The NWS has completely removed the snow chances for tonight and tomorrow. In about 36 hours we went from 100% snow, heavy snow possible, and 4-7" forecast to now not even getting any measurable snow. What a change in the models. Not sure what the GFS was smoking this entire week.

#120
ToastedRavs

Posted 10 March 2017 - 10:22 PM

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The Des Moines nws tweeted they had 1.2" so far. Some models went so dry they removed all snow, so that was clearly wrong.


I am sure they sent that out reluctantly since they are so warm biased over there. It's sickening how much they love the warmth
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#121
Grizzcoat

Posted 11 March 2017 - 12:25 AM

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I am sure they sent that out reluctantly since they are so warm biased over there. It's sickening how much they love the warmth

+1------- The office is a joke. The warm bias is obvious.



#122
NEJeremy

Posted 11 March 2017 - 07:45 AM

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looking back, the higher res models of the NAM were showing this lack of snow happening much earlier than the GFS and regular NAM. I initially just blew it off as the model not doing a good job, but in the end they were accurate and picked up on what ended up being a non-existent piece of crap system that only brought clouds and no measurable snow


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