Tom Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 MPX going with an early 7-13” with possible thunder snow and possible 2”+ per hour on saturday for the metro.I'm seeing a redic trowal feature with this storm and the good ol' MSP magnet is going to showcase this yet again. Your area has been the magnet for these meso scale features and an example of how the LRC can play a role with these circumstances in a local area. BTW, this storm in the previous 2 cycles (Jan 18th-20th & Nov 29th-Dec 2nd) both had a trowal-like feature and it was an occluding storm in Cycle # 2 across the same regions it is currently going to hit. One can see how seasonal adjustments in the Spring months can be useful as it will be the case in Cycle # 4 for this storm system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Looking like a west metro crusher as modeled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 We’re going to get a good amount of rain, but it’s going to be relatively short-lived. Lots of rain in a short amount of time doesn’t seem ideal right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 We’re going to get a good amount of rain, but it’s going to be relatively short-lived. Lots of rain in a short amount of time doesn’t seem ideal right now.How much snow pack do you have?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Guessing the NAM starts its cave to the warmer models around here now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 How much snow pack do you have??I think we probably have around 4-5” or so left on the ground. All super compacted and frozen over, with a lot of frost depth, obviously, as well. I’m just not sure where this rain is going to go when it falls this weekend, because the ground certainly isn’t going to absorb it super well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Guessing the NAM starts its cave to the warmer models around here nowNot through hr 48. Looks south and east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Not through hr 48. Looks south and east.Final outcome probably wont come into focus until we get a sample. You should be gold. Wouldnt be surprised to see some models move the good stuff north of you today only to come back a bit. The snowpack is stupendous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 06z Euro...the winds on the backside of this storm are impressive and widespread... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Not through hr 48. Looks south and east.Rip roaring fast. Gonna be alot of pingers somewhere. Critical thincknesses and temp profiles are riding the edge all over the place 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 What are the chances N. WI gets in on the action? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 What are the chances N. WI gets in on the action?high Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 7, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 What are the chances N. WI gets in on the action?Very good...are you going up this weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Very good...are you going up this weekend?Will be more inclined if double digits start looking like a real probability. Just getting over the flu so we’ll see how I’m feeling too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 12z GFs and FV3 hold serve. Canadian is seen as a warm outlier by MPX. They have no mention of mix or liquid for the metro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 12z GEFS. Looking good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 12z GFs and FV3 hold serve. Canadian is seen as a warm outlier by MPX. They have no mention of mix or liquid for the metro.Your good. By 1st glance my guess is the GFS is overdoing WAA up there contributing to your lower kuchera totals on that model. I am gonna ping. The GFS is way warmer at the surface than the NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 4-10 in the Point and click. terribly tough forecast across the La Crosse forecast area Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 The Euro has saturday afternoon temps from 34-36 across the metro as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 The Euro has saturday afternoon temps from 34-36 across the metro as wellIt’s been showing that for a while now. Here’s MPX’s take: “Precipitation will rapidly develop over the Plains Friday nightas strong kinematics encounter deep moisture. The degree ofisentropic upglide ahead of the surface cyclone will maintain aband of heavy precipitation arcing around the system. This bandwill begin to reach southwestern MN Saturday morning and spreadeastward across the rest of the area shortly thereafter. Modestwarmer air aloft should wetbulb below freezing almost immediatelyafter the onset of the heavy precip, so we are not anticipating aprolonged period of a mixed wintry precip. The one exception maybe across far southern MN into central WI where wetbulbtemperatures aloft may remain above freezing nearest the surfacecyclone track.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 It’s been showing that for a while now. Here’s MPX’s take: “Precipitation will rapidly develop over the Plains Friday nightas strong kinematics encounter deep moisture. The degree ofisentropic upglide ahead of the surface cyclone will maintain aband of heavy precipitation arcing around the system. This bandwill begin to reach southwestern MN Saturday morning and spreadeastward across the rest of the area shortly thereafter. Modestwarmer air aloft should wetbulb below freezing almost immediatelyafter the onset of the heavy precip, so we are not anticipating aprolonged period of a mixed wintry precip. The one exception maybe across far southern MN into central WI where wetbulbtemperatures aloft may remain above freezing nearest the surfacecyclone track.”The Euro ultimately mixes it down up there. Just something to watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 The Euro ultimately mixes it down up there. Just something to watchWouldn’t take much of a shift in the low track to start causing concern. I fully expect the afternoon disco to start mentioning the possibility of thermal issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 The NAMS are considerably SE of 12z. Still the persistent thermal issues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 Gfs follows suit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 They talked about the warmer air, but still not convinced it will make it this far north. Ahead of this system, a surge of much warmer air aloft willmove across Iowa, and into far southern Minnesota Saturday morning.Thermal profiles indicated that the depth of the warm air could leadto a mixture of sleet, freezing rain, or rain along the Iowa borderfor a few hours. How far north this warmer air moves remains inquestion. However, based on the current surface low track, and howthis is a favored climatology heavy snowfall track for southernMinnesota, will continue to support a board area of heavy snowfallof 6 to 12 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 7, 2019 Report Share Posted March 7, 2019 They talked about the warmer air, but still not convinced it will make it this far north. Ahead of this system, a surge of much warmer air aloft willmove across Iowa, and into far southern Minnesota Saturday morning.Thermal profiles indicated that the depth of the warm air could leadto a mixture of sleet, freezing rain, or rain along the Iowa borderfor a few hours. How far north this warmer air moves remains inquestion. However, based on the current surface low track, and howthis is a favored climatology heavy snowfall track for southernMinnesota, will continue to support a board area of heavy snowfallof 6 to 12 inches.18z models looked better there surface low south. Gefs says get ready Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 8, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 00z Euro...MSP on north and west look prime and the rest of the Northwoods.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 With a monster rainstorm looming mid next week I’m not so sure I’m rooting for 7-12” of wet, heavy snow anymore. But, here it comes. Watch has been upgraded to a warning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 With a monster rainstorm looming mid next week I’m not so sure I’m rooting for 7-12” of wet, heavy snow anymore. But, here it comes. Watch has been upgraded to a warning.Yep- I agree. I love winter and all but owning home puts things into a different perspective when you got 2"+ in the snow pack with another 2-3" forecasted over a small time frame and temps pushing 60F. Personally not concerned about river flooding (that will take awhile) but its the urban and small streams that are concerning. I have no clue how all the water is going to effectively drain away with the frost so deep....Most peoples gutters and down spouts are froze solid - worsening things in trying to get the water AWAY from your foundation. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 Yep- I agree. I love winter and all but owning home puts things into a different perspective when you got 2"+ in the snow pack with another 2-3" forecasted over a small time frame and temps pushing 60F. Personally not concerned about river flooding (that will take awhile) but its the urban and small streams that are concerning. I have no clue how all the water is going to effectively drain away with the frost so deep....Most peoples gutters and down spouts are froze solid - worsening things in trying to get the water AWAY from your foundation.My house sits up about 20 ft higher than the lake so no concern there. But I’m about 5 ft below street level. With ice covered sewer drains and my neighbors plowed snow banks melting into my yard, I am really concerned right now. We could have close to 30” otg after this storm. The amount of water flowing towards my garage is not something I want to think about. The drainage pipes in the yard are frozen shut even with the heated wires running through them. Not good, at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 This storm will be cold enough that much of the liquid around here at least will be absorbed by the pack. Next weeks storm is a whole different animal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 That trowel feature is definetly showing a real warm tongue. Will be fascinating to watch in real time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 Dat warm tongue. PING PING PING Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 ^ that is one ugly map. Bust in the making, or the NAM being stupid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 ^ that is one ugly map. Bust in the making, or the NAM being stupid?Every model is very close to showing that solution in the upper levels. Gonna be a now cast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 12z HRRR past hr 30 (to be taken with a grain of salt) has 32F all the way up to Winnipeg! Lol. 12z 3km NAM also a bit warmer than previous runs. In fact, it shows Gosaints getting snow before me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 Every model is very close to showing that solution in the upper levels. Gonna be a now cast Gotta play the thermal game if you want a big dog in March. The dividing line between ping and heavy snow is thin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 We're getting the signature pre-storm fog. Bit of a buzzkill knowing what this storm is bringing but it's March so oh well. 28.6*F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 Gotta play the thermal game if you want a big dog in March. The dividing line between ping and heavy snow is thin.Many models pull the warm tongue right up the MS river valley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 8, 2019 Report Share Posted March 8, 2019 Many models pull the warm tongue right up the MS river valleyMPX slowly babystepping down the totals. Now 7-10”. We’ll see. Still going to cause issues unless we only get a few inches which seems unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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