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Preliminary Discussion for Upcoming 2014-15 Winter Season


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#51
tim the weatherman

Posted 30 July 2014 - 09:36 AM

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are always cooler in the eastern Niño regions. The Antarctic circumpolar current (strongest current in the world) pushes cold water up along the coast of western coast of South America. Therefore you can have colder SST’s in the eastern Niño regions with a more positive SST anomaly. The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology decreased the chances down to 50 percent for an El Niño developing this year and only 5/8 models show the El Niño developing at all. NOAA should start to back off during their next monthly update. The models that still show still show an El Niño developing will fail because they were modeled for a warm PDO and do not realize the coupling does not occur during a cold PDO. The CFSv2, JAMSTEC, and etc., originally had near moderate El Niño level warmth during today’s time frame. Here in reality the last updated weekly averaged SST in Niño region 3.4 is -.1 Celsius. It is getting quite humorous watching the predicted warm up being pushed back months. We are seeing some of the effects of the record Antarctic sea ice extent and area. As the anomalous cold water continues to be transported north and west we continue to see cooling in the Niño regions.
(fromaccuweatherfourms)We will continue to see further cooling over the next week as anomalously cold SST drift westward



#52
Tom

Posted 30 July 2014 - 09:52 AM

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Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are always cooler in the eastern Niño regions. The Antarctic circumpolar current (strongest current in the world) pushes cold water up along the coast of western coast of South America. Therefore you can have colder SST’s in the eastern Niño regions with a more positive SST anomaly. The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology decreased the chances down to 50 percent for an El Niño developing this year and only 5/8 models show the El Niño developing at all. NOAA should start to back off during their next monthly update. The models that still show still show an El Niño developing will fail because they were modeled for a warm PDO and do not realize the coupling does not occur during a cold PDO. The CFSv2, JAMSTEC, and etc., originally had near moderate El Niño level warmth during today’s time frame. Here in reality the last updated weekly averaged SST in Niño region 3.4 is -.1 Celsius. It is getting quite humorous watching the predicted warm up being pushed back months. We are seeing some of the effects of the record Antarctic sea ice extent and area. As the anomalous cold water continues to be transported north and west we continue to see cooling in the Niño regions.
(fromaccuweatherfourms)

Nice find.  In line with what I believed would happen back in late Winter/Early Spring.  The Pacific really needs to align itself correctly to form an El Nino in a Cold PDO cycle.  It has happened before, but the physical drivers this year have been unfavorable.

 

The point about the Antarctic Sea Ice is very important.  Record Sea Ice Content down by the South Pole is a key indicator as to why cooler waters are eroding any warm waters that upwell.  WxBell is still forecasting a weak El Nino, but I'm still doubting that happens.  A La Nada is very well possible.

 

The CFSv2 forecast back in April had an El Nino already in full bloom by today.  Goes to show you how off the models have been determining what will happen in the central Pacific. 

 

That being said, I'm counting down the days when it will be cold and snowy in our region!  We had similarities back in the late 70's of blockbuster winters back to back.  We will see a repeat this year.


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#53
tim the weatherman

Posted 30 July 2014 - 10:03 AM

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Nice find.  In line with what I believed would happen back in late Winter/Early Spring.  The Pacific really needs to align itself correctly to form an El Nino in a Cold PDO cycle.  It has happened before, but the physical drivers this year have been unfavorable.

 

The point about the Antarctic Sea Ice is very important.  Record Sea Ice Content down by the South Pole is a key indicator as to why cooler waters are eroding any warm waters that upwell.  WxBell is still forecasting a weak El Nino, but I'm still doubting that happens.  A La Nada is very well possible.

 

The CFSv2 forecast back in April had an El Nino already in full bloom by today.  Goes to show you how off the models have been determining what will happen in the central Pacific. 

 

That being said, I'm counting down the days when it will be cold and snowy in our region!  We had similarities back in the late 70's of blockbuster winters back to back.  We will see a repeat this year.

thanks i found that on the accuweather fourms and i also found out that a cold pdo means a la nina if we continue this cold pdo well in 2015 we could have a la nina for next year.



#54
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Posted 30 July 2014 - 11:08 AM

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Remember how cold the Arctic summer was last year???  I think it broke a record that dated back to the mid/late 50's.  This summer may rival that, or even beat it!  It hasn't hit normal yet this year and doesn't look like it will.

 

As we head into August, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago region of North America will be filling up with below normal temps and some chilly air will start working into the region up there.  As the seasonal changes begin first up north, it will be interesting to see how quick they start this year.


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#55
james1976

Posted 30 July 2014 - 01:13 PM

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a lot of signs pointing toward another fun winter. still got a few months to go but the anticipation is building :)


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#56
tim the weatherman

Posted 31 July 2014 - 08:43 AM

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also i looked at greenland that warmer sea surface temps are showing up so that means we could wind up having -nao for this upcoming winter and we will be looking at a bermuda high this winter so that means chicago will be one city that will be the worst this winter if we get the -nao too.



#57
tim the weatherman

Posted 31 July 2014 - 02:20 PM

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In addition we are on the verge of a negative IOD event. There has only ever been one El Nino event in a year with a negative IOD event. (1993) .
 



#58
tim the weatherman

Posted 02 August 2014 - 10:46 AM

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Nice find.  In line with what I believed would happen back in late Winter/Early Spring.  The Pacific really needs to align itself correctly to form an El Nino in a Cold PDO cycle.  It has happened before, but the physical drivers this year have been unfavorable.

 

The point about the Antarctic Sea Ice is very important.  Record Sea Ice Content down by the South Pole is a key indicator as to why cooler waters are eroding any warm waters that upwell.  WxBell is still forecasting a weak El Nino, but I'm still doubting that happens.  A La Nada is very well possible.

 

The CFSv2 forecast back in April had an El Nino already in full bloom by today.  Goes to show you how off the models have been determining what will happen in the central Pacific. 

 

That being said, I'm counting down the days when it will be cold and snowy in our region!  We had similarities back in the late 70's of blockbuster winters back to back.  We will see a repeat this year.

in my opinion that the models are wrong all the time on this and i have learned a while back that the models can be wrong all because of the temprature and the wind so that means that the el nino they have forecasted is a distant memory and we will have a la nada and we will have a repeat this winter also iaccording to australian goverment bureau of meteorology that the next update the 12th of this month(and also according to watts up with that that the odds are in favor la nada for this up coming winter and they are also saying that we could have a la nina for next year).



#59
tim the weatherman

Posted 03 August 2014 - 08:12 AM

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after looking at the latest enso forecast from whats up with that's website that we are currently in neutral state with the enso region so the el nino is a no show this year and for next year as well.



#60
tim the weatherman

Posted 03 August 2014 - 10:43 AM

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was looking at the weather centre and andrew over there has just said that the artic sea ice will play a big role and the odds for a colder winter has increased so that means that we could be looking at the ao to go negative for this winter(and noticed from the weather centre's facebook page that a southeast ridge has formed so that means people in the chicago metro area needs to pay attention to the weather for this upcoming winter).



#61
iFred

Posted 03 August 2014 - 08:55 PM

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was looking at the weather centre and andrew over there has just said that the artic sea ice will play a big role and the odds for a colder winter has increased so that means that we could be looking at the ao to go negative for this winter(and noticed from the weather centre's facebook page that a southeast ridge has formed so that means people in the chicago metro area needs to pay attention to the weather for this upcoming winter).

 

We are still way too far out for a forecast to be this explicit.


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#62
primetime

Posted 03 August 2014 - 09:11 PM

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after looking at the latest enso forecast from whats up with that's website that we are currently in neutral state with the enso region so the el nino is a no show this year and for next year as well.

 

So we already know that El Nino is a no show for next year??  Some purty good forecasters I'd say


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#63
Phil

Posted 03 August 2014 - 09:22 PM

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Here's my take on things, all in summary:

- El Niño is here in terms of the MEI/AAM..SSTs will get there too but it will take time

- Any effects from the Arctic ice are minute and/or speculative

- There is no SE ridge right now, and if one does develop it'll probably be a temporary result of intraseasonal tropical forcings

- Biggest unknown for winter is solar...the quieter the Sun, the better, particularly for the western US/Plains

- The -QBO essentially guarantees a free-willed tropical wave-train, so the waves/spacing over the NH will be chaotic and unstable...essentially, the pattern should change frequently throughout the winter, in some respects
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#64
tim the weatherman

Posted 04 August 2014 - 08:40 AM

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A couple more week of this cooling and we may have to change the name of this thread to La Nina watch. The monthly update is this Thursday and I expect NOAA will start backing off their El Nino idea.
Here is the change in sea surface temperatures from last weeks update:

Nino 1-2: -1.0 C

Nino 3.0: -.3 C

Nino 3.4: 0 C

Nino 4: +.1 C
(also if this keeps up then they will have to change this to a la nina watch).



#65
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Posted 04 August 2014 - 09:15 AM

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So we already know that El Nino is a no show for next year??  Some purty good forecasters I'd say

 

No kidding.  A few months ago, the media was all over "Super Nino."


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#66
tim the weatherman

Posted 04 August 2014 - 09:19 AM

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No kidding.  A few months ago, the media was all over "Super Nino."

this proves that the media cannot be trusted that we all knew that the super nino was a bust right from the start.



#67
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Posted 04 August 2014 - 09:38 AM

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We will need to keep an eye out on the intraseasonal wind changes in the Pacific that can allow for westerlies to kick in.  If we head into September and the SST are still about the same, then chances are an El Nino may not form.


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#68
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Posted 04 August 2014 - 09:52 AM

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We will need to keep an eye out on the intraseasonal wind changes in the Pacific that can allow for westerlies to kick in.  If we head into September and the SST are still about the same, then chances are an El Nino may not form.

 

Yeah, I posted the trades forecast in the Nino thread but they only show a little below normal in the Nino area.


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#69
tim the weatherman

Posted 04 August 2014 - 10:03 AM

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and i am thinking that noaa will drop the el nino watch on their cpc website within the next few days.



#70
Tom

Posted 04 August 2014 - 10:06 AM

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I really would wait and see what the August run of the JMA model shows later this month.  It really has been the only model that wants to paint an El Nino, modiki style, which is normally a cold/snowy Central/Eastern U.S.  The JMA has done extremely well forecasting in the long range.  If it starts changing course, then all bets are off.


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#71
primetime

Posted 04 August 2014 - 10:37 AM

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No kidding.  A few months ago, the media was all over "Super Nino."

this proves that the media cannot be trusted that we all knew that the super nino was a bust right from the start.

 

I think it just shows that we have a long way to go with ENSO forecasting.  There were some highly respected mets thinking that we would be looking at a strong nino this year.  My opinion now is that we are looking at neutral or weak nino...could go either way.  As Phil mentioned, the sea surface temperatures may make a late push as we head through fall...but it remains to be seen.



#72
richard mann

Posted 04 August 2014 - 12:04 PM

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this proves that the media cannot be trusted that we all knew that the super nino was a bust right from the start.

 

.. ridiculous.

 

http://theweatherfor...thread/?p=30789


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#73
tim the weatherman

Posted 05 August 2014 - 02:33 PM

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just heard that the weak el nino is preparing to surface but the atmosphere is not respoding.



#74
richard mann

Posted 05 August 2014 - 04:19 PM

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.. Not a very clear report then, apparently, sounds like. ?

 

Not much preface, very little detail. 

 

What was the source of what you heard in fact. ?


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#75
tim the weatherman

Posted 05 August 2014 - 04:50 PM

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.. Not a very clear report then, apparently, sounds like. ?

 

Not much preface, very little detail. 

 

What was the source of what you heard in fact. ?

i heard it from the weather centre weather blog.



#76
Tom

Posted 05 August 2014 - 07:49 PM

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.


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#77
tim the weatherman

Posted 05 August 2014 - 08:34 PM

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.

you are right tom i found an article from the weather centre and andrew over there had it up that from the midwest to the east coast gets in the cold and snowy winter weather and the greatlakes cutters and the panhandle hooks as well(he also that the storm track goes up the eastrn sea board and to keep the west dry).



#78
richard mann

Posted 05 August 2014 - 11:12 PM

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i heard it from the weather centre weather blog.

 

Perhaps you could post a link to that blog's main web-address. Perhaps even one to what you'd read there more specifically. This, or either otherwise, what to look for more generally at this site-address.


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#79
tim the weatherman

Posted 06 August 2014 - 05:40 AM

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Perhaps you could post a link to that blog's main web-address. Perhaps even one to what you'd read there more specifically. This, or either otherwise, what to look for more generally at this site-address.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/



#80
james1976

Posted 06 August 2014 - 06:40 AM

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.

Tom, what months is this for?



#81
Tom

Posted 06 August 2014 - 06:46 AM

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Tom, what months is this for?

Nov/Dec/Jan...look at the map on the top line...I remember this model also did very well in long range predictions both last year and the year before.



#82
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Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:39 AM

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Nov/Dec/Jan...look at the map on the top line...I remember this model also did very well in long range predictions both last year and the year before.

ahhh.....so thats what the NDJ means. lol



#83
james1976

Posted 06 August 2014 - 08:40 AM

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it basically has us all right in the bullseye of the cold.



#84
tim the weatherman

Posted 06 August 2014 - 09:22 AM

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NASA temp outlook...nice and pretty if you like the cold.  Looks like the model is indicating a -AO and -NAO.  The above normal temps to the east of Hudson Bay is a characteristic of blocking near Greenland, maybe even a west-based block.  Can't remember if that was good for lower lake cutters or not.  Maybe some can shed some light.

according to the brazilian metograms that it is also has chicago to start cooling off after october so the metogram and this model is saying the same thing.



#85
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Posted 07 August 2014 - 07:49 AM

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Sign of things to come for the winter? Things are changing in the pacific...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....e/wkxzteq.shtml



#86
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Posted 07 August 2014 - 07:59 AM

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Sign of things to come for the winter? Things are changing in the pacific...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....e/wkxzteq.shtml

Even if we do see a weak El Nino in central pacific (Modiki), so long the warmer waters stay in the central pacific, it bodes well for a cold snowy central/eastern CONUS.  The latest El Nino that you can use as an analog was 2009/10.  Do you remember the Snowmagedon year???  The Midwest faired pretty well with a 50"+ season and there was a lot of sustained cold.  The only difference this year is we have the warm pool of waters in the NE Pacific that will be a huge factor to bring down more severe cold.


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#87
tim the weatherman

Posted 07 August 2014 - 08:06 AM

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Even if we do see a weak El Nino in central pacific (Modiki), so long the warmer waters stay in the central pacific, it bodes well for a cold snowy central/eastern CONUS.  The latest El Nino that you can use as an analog was 2009/10.  Do you remember the Snowmagedon year???  The Midwest faired pretty well with a 50"+ season and there was a lot of sustained cold.  The only difference this year is we have the warm pool of waters in the NE Pacific that will be a huge factor to bring down more severe cold.

that's true but if we get any storms that will be big snowstorms that can be big blizzards and after that have severe cold on top of that and with a (modiki) el nino and the warm pool over the northeast pacific so that means that a ridge will set up over the west us and the warmer waters by greenland.



#88
Tom

Posted 07 August 2014 - 08:15 AM

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Even with the latest Upwelling of warm waters in the pacific, the easterly winds could still do what happened before in early Spring and erode the warm waters from the cooler waters to the southeast.  Time will tell if this warm water sustains itself and if the intraseasonal wind change happens.


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#89
james1976

Posted 07 August 2014 - 08:53 AM

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yeah i aint liking how those water temps are changing.



#90
Tom

Posted 08 August 2014 - 07:45 AM

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JB saying that '76/77 is showing up on the Analogs...here is an excerpt from that winter: Seems very similar regarding the set-up we are seeing in the NE Pacific creating the high-amplitude jet stream pattern.  Also, if blocking sets up in Greenland, extreme cold can get even worse like it did back then.

 

Winter of 1976–1977[edit]

Weather conditions during the months leading up to the blizzard allowed the blizzard to have the impacts it did. A high-amplitude planetary wave pattern set up,[4] which was very persistent from October 1976 through January 1977, and involved a ridge over western North America and a trough over eastern North America.[5] In January 1977, this pattern persisted, with the pressure of the strong ridge over western North America being more than two standard deviations from the mean, while the strong trough centered over eastern North America was more than three standard deviations from the mean.[5]

A strong blocking high developed over the Arctic Ocean during January, and this moved the polar vortex to southern Canada, south of its normal location.[6] Strong northwest flow between the ridge and the trough resulted in a strong northwest flow in between, which ushered Arctic air into the central and eastern United States.[6] The circulation helped cause record cold for the winter over many portions of the eastern United States, with the Ohio Valley averaging more than 8 °F (4 °C) below normal.[4] The severe winter was not limited to the northeastern United States; snow was observed in Miami, Florida, on January 20, and snow mixed with rain occurred in the Bahamas.[7


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#91
tim the weatherman

Posted 08 August 2014 - 08:09 AM

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JB saying that '76/77 is showing up on the Analogs...here is an excerpt from that winter: Seems very similar regarding the set-up we are seeing in the NE Pacific creating the high-amplitude jet stream pattern.  Also, if blocking sets up in Greenland, extreme cold can get even worse like it did back then.

 

Winter of 1976–1977[edit]

Weather conditions during the months leading up to the blizzard allowed the blizzard to have the impacts it did. A high-amplitude planetary wave pattern set up,[4] which was very persistent from October 1976 through January 1977, and involved a ridge over western North America and a trough over eastern North America.[5] In January 1977, this pattern persisted, with the pressure of the strong ridge over western North America being more than two standard deviations from the mean, while the strong trough centered over eastern North America was more than three standard deviations from the mean.[5]

A strong blocking high developed over the Arctic Ocean during January, and this moved the polar vortex to southern Canada, south of its normal location.[6] Strong northwest flow between the ridge and the trough resulted in a strong northwest flow in between, which ushered Arctic air into the central and eastern United States.[6] The circulation helped cause record cold for the winter over many portions of the eastern United States, with the Ohio Valley averaging more than 8 °F (4 °C) below normal.[4] The severe winter was not limited to the northeastern United States; snow was observed in Miami, Florida, on January 20, and snow mixed with rain occurred in the Bahamas.[7

that is true but what if a southeast ridge setting up so that means that chicago will be in line for crippling snowstorms to maybe full blowing blizzards.



#92
james1976

Posted 08 August 2014 - 08:47 AM

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snow happened in Miami and the Bahamas?!! :o



#93
tim the weatherman

Posted 08 August 2014 - 08:56 AM

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we could wind up having a southeast ridge this winter ad it could be stronger.



#94
primetime

Posted 08 August 2014 - 10:21 AM

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1977 and 2014 were similar with the cold, but for different reasons.  1977 had the big -AO/-NAO.  2014 had the big +EPO ridge through Alaska into the Arctic.  2014 winter in Green Bay had the highest number of days below zero, ever.

 

OFXFTVI.png

 

Et1eD4V.png


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#95
Phil

Posted 08 August 2014 - 10:27 AM

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The amount of wishcasting in here is insane..not trying to be rude, just an observation
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#96
james1976

Posted 08 August 2014 - 11:04 AM

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The amount of wishcasting in here is insane..not trying to be rude, just an observation

I wouldnt call it wishcasting. People are just throwing out models and graphs that they find on the net. It's not like anyone in here is actually making a winter forecast. The24weatherman may get a bit excited but it's all fun :)


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#97
tim the weatherman

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:14 PM

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There is no longer a chance for an El Niño developing this summer. Not only did they delay their forecast El Niño to a period where their forecasting ability is almost zero, the chances where reduced 15 percent. Please do not forget the criterion for an El Niño which I have already posted.



#98
Phil

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:29 PM

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Ok :rolleyes:
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm season 2017:
Thunderstorm days: 4
Severe days: 3
Hail: 1 (pea sized)
Wind: 2 (62mph, 58mph)
Rain total: 4.54"

#99
Chris

Posted 08 August 2014 - 12:50 PM

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JB saying that '76/77 is showing up on the Analogs...here is an excerpt from that winter: Seems very similar regarding the set-up we are seeing in the NE Pacific creating the high-amplitude jet stream pattern.  Also, if blocking sets up in Greenland, extreme cold can get even worse like it did back then.

 

Winter of 1976–1977[edit]

Weather conditions during the months leading up to the blizzard allowed the blizzard to have the impacts it did. A high-amplitude planetary wave pattern set up,[4] which was very persistent from October 1976 through January 1977, and involved a ridge over western North America and a trough over eastern North America.[5] In January 1977, this pattern persisted, with the pressure of the strong ridge over western North America being more than two standard deviations from the mean, while the strong trough centered over eastern North America was more than three standard deviations from the mean.[5]

A strong blocking high developed over the Arctic Ocean during January, and this moved the polar vortex to southern Canada, south of its normal location.[6] Strong northwest flow between the ridge and the trough resulted in a strong northwest flow in between, which ushered Arctic air into the central and eastern United States.[6] The circulation helped cause record cold for the winter over many portions of the eastern United States, with the Ohio Valley averaging more than 8 °F (4 °C) below normal.[4] The severe winter was not limited to the northeastern United States; snow was observed in Miami, Florida, on January 20, and snow mixed with rain occurred in the Bahamas.[7

 

Analogs are fun too look at but 90% of the time they bust.  My opinion is that we're in uncharted ground with our climate.  Having said that, ridges in the "two standard deviation range" aren't as rare as they used to be ( I know that's an oxymoron).  The ridge over the eastern Pacific last winter was unprecedented.



#100
Tom

Posted 08 August 2014 - 01:36 PM

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Analogs are fun too look at but 90% of the time they bust.  My opinion is that we're in uncharted ground with our climate.  Having said that, ridges in the "two standard deviation range" aren't as rare as they used to be ( I know that's an oxymoron).  The ridge over the eastern Pacific last winter was unprecedented.

IMO, it will be another unprecedented ridge yet again this winter.  I know you live in the NW coast and would like to see some winter weather, but I highly doubt troughing develops this winter in your area, maybe very early in the season but eventually that same pattern we saw last year will take hold.  Of course you will see some storms, but not many snowstorms.

 

The weather pattern cycles continuously and we are seeing this same SST pattern as we saw back in 1917/18 where that warm pool of water in NE Pacific stayed in place and didn't go anywhere.  In result, the Central/Eastern U.S. saw severe winters.  We will have yet another, even if an El Nino does develop.  Another important fact is that last year at this time there wasn't as much warm water in the Bearing Sea, Gulf of Alaska and off the west coast.  I posted those map comparisons.


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