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Tim, you must be really fun at parties huh?

Tim, check your initial post... it's a different image. Maybe it just posted wrong.

One thing is for sure. Washington ski resorts are going to be thrilled this coming weekend. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_snow72.72.0000.gif

I'll bet they think you are nuts! I totally understand though.

Looks like my location will receive snowfall on and off starting on Sunday night. I head out of town Tuesday evening until Christmas. I let my house sitter know they are responsible for recording snowfall measurements while I am gone.

I just looked at a roundup of all the weather woes in Western WA today. Very impressive. 1990 and 2006 have nothing on this year now. We all know what happened both of those years. Both warm ENSO BTW. Hint hint. Models aren't everything.

Wanted to throw a video together to demonstrate visually how OLR/CHI/Convection in the tropics can alter the jet stream, which has down stream implications on our weather. Pause if needed, but at the 00 hour you'll see -OLR over the Pacific on the bottom map (green's) with +OLR over the Maritime Continent (Orange's). -OLR/Convection over the Pacific is typical in an El Nino regime due to lift/upward motion in that location. The convection over the Pacific excites the jet stream if you will, causing it to extend clear over the Pacific as you can see in the top image, which is the jet stream @ 250mb. The extended jet/Aleutian low combo is one we know all too well here in the PNW, and one that is pretty easy to spot when tracking tropical projections. Run the video forward to hour 24 and you'll see the -OLR quickly breaking down over the Pacific, allowing the jet to relax to retract. This decrease in the jet stream also allows more amplification to take place over the US, in the form of troughs and ridges. Skip to hour 96 and we can now see -OLR over the Maritime Continent. For those who follow the MJO discussions, convection over the MC is what we like to see when looking for cold patterns in the West. The placement of the jet streak east of Japan causes surface cyclogenisis to pump up a ridge over the Aluetians/GOA, producing a downstream trough over the PNW. Although you have to have the perfect placement to produce a true snow even in PNW, hours 120 and 144 continue to show -OLR over the MC, and heights continue to rise over the GOA. **You'll have to click on the Vimeo button and watch on their site so you get a larger view... not sure how to fix it [media=500 281] [/media]

Do you ever stop?

yeah they really need the cold and snow i feel so bad for them. Especially all the mid-west ski resorts that don't really exist.

No, youre not missing anything. He is messing with Jim. That, and looking to find any angle possible to downplay any chance of something exciting happening next week.

He meant to do that. His thrill for the night...

Cold air has to come into the lower 48 if the NAO and AO both go negative. Think the models are trying to catch up with the changes in the indices later next week. We all knew this week would be a mild one. Will be glad when this dull weather stretch is over.

Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble shows below normal heights over the NW and above normal heights over the GOA through day 15. FWIW the ECMWF control model is almost identical to the GFS through day 10.

Let's not forget the 12z was also very good. The WRF shows widespread lowland snow in the almost believeable range now. As I've said there's a lot more than the GFS pointing to a good cold wave coming up. The groundwork has been laid. I have decent confidence in the cold snap being shown in the short term (this weekend through mid next week), but beyond that a bigger cold snap may take a little longer to evolve than what the GFS shows and it might happen as progged. All I can say is this is a good window of opportunity for us.

Wouldn't it be something if my highly technical prediction actually came to be!

Jim, Jim, JImmity, Jim Jim. Jimmer jammer Jim, Jim, Jim. I wonder what he's wearing right now...

12z CMC after HR 156-168 definitely improved/colder than any of its previous runs.

Putting the long range GFS freak out stuff aside, seems like there is reasonable agreement on the increased likelihood for some pretty low level snow chances Tuesday-Thursday of next week. 500ft snow levels for northern Washington and southern BC seem like a pretty good bet.

Maybe we jumped the gun after HR 180 it improves, looks better than 6z a tad...

looking pretty good to meeeee. Not sure how this is not a decent run... The is up to hour 210.

2nd storm on the horizon is right on the heels of this Sun/Mon storm system. As this first storm exits, a western trough is already in place and the storm that follows should track about the same as this first storm. GFS wants to eject to fast and farther north on the 12z run...but the question is, why would a storm track farther north when a trough is already established in the west and deepeningr??? We saw how the models have handled system #1 sending it out to fast and track way north a few days ago, now they are tracking the system farther south. Need to keep that in mind with the second storm. That one could bury the Plains/Midwest/Lakes. If the -EPO develops during this period it will only add to the validity that a southern push to the storm track should be monitored. Fun times tracking these storm systems.

We all knew yesterday's 18z GFS was a bunch of bull...in all likelihood (high of 20 on day 16 anyone? Bueller?). However the overnight ensembles have cooled significantly (2-3 deg for highs and lows in the late 6-10 and 11-15) which is quite a change for the ensemble mean. Looking more like a several day period of highs in the 30s to 40 and lows in the mid-upper 20s with the coldest period looking like the 19th-22nd. Very gradual cooling trend from now up to that point. A few outside members suggest a modified arctic blast with a P10 forecast (10th percentile) of 30/20 at PDX around the 21st-22nd. At this point I'd say quite a bit better agreement around the cooler solutions we have seen the past few days but any risk of arctic air is still very slight. Low snow levels perhaps getting close to the valley floor but probably more like 1000-2000'. The morning consensus forecast for PDX shows the following departures by period (deg F): 1-5 day: +3.7 6-10 day: -2.5 11-15 day: -4.4

Putting the rain into perspective...we've had more rain in 8 days than we did in May, June, July, August and September combined. 7.00" in BG as of 12:05 AM today. Lots of street flooding and water flowing up out of manhole covers which I've never seen in person.

18z GFS high temp for Chirstmas: 20 00z GFS high temp for Christmas: 50 Consistently inconsistent

I am pretty sure quite a bit of the snow I received was elevation dependent. I know it snowed in Bellingham, but nothing like it did at my parents location near Lake Whatcom. Whatever that set up was, I would be happy to have it again. I think with Maritime Polar details have to be perfect. We’ve had several MP airmasses in recent years, but most are either barely too warm, or they aren’t associated with enough moisture to leave more than an inch or two of wet snow that melts an hour later.

Received 2” of snow Friday night 1/25/02 (that included thundersnow that dropped the temp from 40 to 32 in the blink of an eye. It warmed into the mid 30’s on Saturday until snow started falling in the late afternoon, and several large snow showers dropped another 4-5 inches that evening. Sunday was cold and clear and I logged a 25-19 daily temp spread. I think either Monday or Tuesday we had another small snowfall, and on Wednesday a transition event with heavy snow. Total accumulation over the period was 14”. I think that’s the last time we had a non arctic pattern drop any sort of significant snow up this way. One of the most enjoyable events I’ve experienced though... Probably in large part because it was the first real event in 5 years even for here.

The general theme of Western troughing is really emerging though.

Seems to be the case and something I learned over the years. I'd be worried if the GFS started trending positive as we get closer, but instead, it's trending negative. On another note, the GEFS T574 sniffed this pattern out way earlier than any other model. It's a pretty good model to look at in the longer range for guidance.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_snow72.180.0000.gif

The point I was making is that year also had the tell tale signs that something good was coming. Sometimes the nasty weather in the leadup to a good cold wave can be pretty impressive. Some members on here that have moved to Salt Lake are kind of envious right now because it has been so wild here.

I am very aware, Just confused why he brought that up when we were talking about this winter being impressive or not... If he is basing this winter already being impressive because 1950 in January was good then he is jumping the gun lol.

It's definitely better than the operational.

High hit 67 in central Nebraska. Really ready for winter weather.

For your fantasy satisfaction. Hour 384 (Christmas Day) looks Really chilly... Why am I looking that far out? I am just silly!

I'm still not sober from yesterday's 18z...

Snow is also tasteless. But I could sure go for some that!

Down to 53 from 54 here. Hmmmm...

I forgot that he was going to have an update today and I read and blog at his site almost every day. Weather West is one of the most comprehensive and one of the best blogs devoted to California weather that I know of.

12z GGEM on the right track... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015120912/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

If only.. :rolleyes:

I prefer marginally cold temps near sea level with heavy snow/cold rain, than Dry Cold. We haven't received squat in recent years.

We do not need a full arctic blast here to have meaningful snow event. Just saying that it sometime helps as it is less dry and leads to more potential. YEs our highs may be in the mid to upper 30s but our lows at night will be well below freezing. I see plenty of potential but it may be sloppy at times. Interesting setup needless to say.

Christmas miracle storm! Experience one of Christmas Eve 1997. Where 5" of snow (concrete mixer) fell.

Yeah. Tracked the crazy squall line here, and been promoting album. 12z GFS in 38 minutes!

Anchorage NWS Forecast Discussion. They are leaning towards the stronger/western solution with handling of the very deep low in the Bering Sea. This is a key player in how well the ridge develops/amplifies over the Gulf of Alaska. Then key player #2 next week is another very deep low and that helps to prop up the ridge rebuilding it near the central Aleutians after the first cold trough has moved over us this weekend. We want that low as well to hang back into the Bering(As colder solutions showed) Cautiously optimistic. SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 455 AM AKST WED DEC 9 2015 OUT WEST...A RAPIDLY EVOLVING LOW (CURRENTLY JUST A WEAK WAVE NEAR THE EAST CHINA SEA) WILL INTERACT WITH A 140+ KNOT JET STREAK AND RAPIDLY APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY. *MODELS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A DEEP SOLUTION (927-933 MB) THAT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA.* WITH MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND WITH DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL ACCOMMODATE LARGE SWATHS OF STORM FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 45 FT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THESE WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO JUMP ON BOARD JUST YET BUT A CONTINUING TREND OF UPPING WINDS IN THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AS MODELS GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS IS GENERALLY THE OUTLIER AS IT WRAPS UP MUCH QUICKER WITH A STRONGER MID-LEVEL JET. **HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING WESTWARD AND A LOT OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WESTWARD.

As a former on air weather guy...let me tell you...we are wrong plenty of times. Let it snow...let it snow...I can be biased now that I am off air

What were the upper levels like January 23rd-30th in 2002? i had a few day period from 1/25-1/29 with I think 14" of snow near Bellingham. It wasn't all that cold, but there was a decent amount of moisture and all of it fell as snow after the initial rain to snow on Friday 1/25/2002... That was actually the only time I ever experienced thunder snow. I watched the temp drop from 40 with heavy mix to 32 with heavy snow in 15 minutes... Anyways, i'm curious if that was a transitory pattern and what was going on with the PV. Thanks! Btw I live and die by the GFS. Despite what people have said lately, i think the GFS over the past couple of winters has actually led the way during our cold spells.

At this point Dan, I'm looking at a main "El Nino" type shot ("Atmospheric River", directed into Central California.), from about the 6th, through the 10th, of January. This with then, as with now, main colder air being in general expansion mode (Main source cold to be moving and spreading daily more south.), while at the same time where looked at more longitudinally, moving at an increasing more stepped up pace east.

It's kind of like looking forward to a nice long road trip. Half the fun is thinking about it and looking at the brochures while sitting on the can. We all know what a long shot these events are. And we all know who will be the first guy to put up a graphic showing a warm up.