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...Daffodil Alert canceled... The Daffodil Alert for the Portland Metropolitan Area has been canceled. The model runs that prompted the Daffodil Alert have given way to colder guidance. A Daffodil Alert is issued when model guidance suggests temperatures may reach 60 degrees for the first time during the late winter/early spring. A Lowland Snow Bust Watch has been issued for Thursday evening through Saturday for elevations below 1000 feet.

Loving the trends. Heights get even lower on this run than the 0z. Quite a gift to have the models rethink the details of the block to such an extreme degree with the event this close. No doubt some places could get crushed with a pattern like or similar to what is being shown.

That he can be obnoxious in multiple places online at once. It's a true gift.

Definitely something to be proud of.

Right. Why even focus on the middle of next week? 4-5 days of snow and cold is a big deal for this area. This isn't Bozeman.

Got about 3.5" here today. Airport only 1", it's about 3 or 4 miles northwest of "my location". I think this is the rare case of local shadowing for the airport with the NNW winds. Usually I've been getting half an inch to an inch less than the airport this winter in big storms except one exception where there was a strong north/south gradient. Both locations are at the valley floor. I should say there are still a couple hours of life left in the deformation band.

Whichever model gives the most snow.

Gross.

This might be one of my better calls of late. Remember the bolded and knock on wood.

This looks to be the pattern that finally gives all the posters up in Washington a snowstorm. Great setup for up there.

Sure would make it hard to complain about this winter. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017013112/gem_asnow_nwus_40.png

Dude you need help. Ever one of your posts are negative bullshit. You dont contribute anything to the forum other then crybaby garbage.

You should have maintained your negativity for longer. Mark should have listened to Dome Buster. NWS Portland should have smoked better weed. Lots of little mistakes.

I blame Phil's self-congratulating earlier today.

Mark better watch out for his job!

You are speaking as if you are some kind of authoritative voice on forecasting when in reality most people would trust Phil's self reported address history before they'd listen to your analysis. You were basing those comments on absolutely nothing more than your little weenie gut feeling.

That's why he gets paid. He is by far the best met in town and probably top ten in the country. He lives and breathes it more fanatically than any of us do. His passion puts him over the top.

The 18z looks really good. If anything the block look more solid than earlier runs.

Models picking up on the jet extension towards mid month brought in part by WHem MJO forcing that I mentioned earlier. We need this round to work unless we want to wait until end of Feb/beginning of March

Better go catch it!

18z is running!!!!

12z ECMWF ensemble mean through hr180 for PDX is in the 4-6 inch range. About 6 inches for SEA.

Maybe this will be the thread of the ages for the Seattle area!

Protest march. Pioneer Square to PDX. Be there.

Rod Hill calling for 2-4" of snow at PDX on Friday morning...What the heck?!

Pretty solid looking 12z ensemble.

2nd gem run in a row to show 2 feet in the north sound.

I couldn't think of a better way to finish Winter off than with a big regional event that we haven't seen since December 2008.

Busy morning with travel snowy fun - ha! GRR's been slow to show many reports but I was up to a bit under 4.5" at 6 am and there was more to come down. I see IWX has a storm report out and with 4.9" reported near Litchfield about 25 miles southeast of Marshall. Looks like their (GRR's) map yesterday with some 4-6" jack-zones over here verified nicely. First and only plow-worthy snowfall for January for my place. Nice to hear city plows come by about 4 am Niko how'd you do over that way?

Maybe 6" or so in open areas and approaching 10-12" in the woods. Hard and crusty base.

Yeah, it's worked out that way, but I would say several of the blocks have been fairly top-heavy, which allowed that southern stream to undercut them pretty quickly.

I try. Being greeedy and only caring about my location is wearisome on the soul.

Yeah, I was thinking at best an inch but I trust Mark on his experience with these transition events. If the entire Metro area got 2" it wouldn't surprise me.

You need help. For something as uncontrollable as the weather to make you act this way for as long as you have is undeniably worrisome. I hope you don't have any guns.

January was cool and wet; just the way we like a winter month to be. January 2017 Aver Max: 64.3/ Norm: 69 Aver Min: 49.6/ Norm: 51 Mean: 56.9 Hi/LoMax: 80/ 54 Hi/LoMin: 60/ 40 Rain: 8.67 Year [Jul-jun]: 15.23 Days: 10

The high of 41 at PDX today was pretty impressive given the relatively early clearing.

Yup, PDX could possibly score one more to end the month before midnight as well. That would give them 22 for the month. Including a stretch of 17-consecutive the 1st through 17th.

Everything about it beautiful! Cold air, gobs of moisture and a low that tracks just right.

This has January/March 2012 potential here

NWS PDX issued a WS Watch everywhere west of the crest. We're screwed now.

Yeah, that's the ideal frequency to account for compaction. Don't do it more frequently than once every 6hrs though. I cleared mine once, then the snow really started pouring down and buried it and I couldn't find it. Same thing happened to the observers @ DCA, which is both ironic and hilarious.

Jeez i dont look at the models for 12 hrs and shitt gets real! wow..

Love how aggressively the GFS pushes that cold air south with the BC slider. 522 thickness line to the OR/CA border.

I measured 3.7" IMBY. Its awesome out there. Second snowfall for January in my area. This makes my grand total of 8.5inches for the month. I am 5 tenths shy of being on average snowfall for the month of January. Not too shabby considering it was a mild month overall. Btw: More snow by afternoon. They are calling for another inch, so I might break the average and be above average for the month.

This winter is insane...

The 12z GFS is still on track for a snowy event. It looks slightly colder / a little further south with the secondary low coming in the weekend. Still looking good for a Thursday night - Friday overrunning event as well.

Umadbro?

Yes. Two wrongs do make a right.

Wow. That was a good evening. I need a cigarette and a nap.