Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 No we don't lol I count like 3 euro ensembles that don't have some sort of storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 No we don't lol I count like 3 euro ensembles that don't have some sort of stormYou may not but I do. There's obviously a storm on all of them just way north for these parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Then why do you keep saying "we " Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Big difference is that northern stream clipper up in central/southern Canada at HR 192. That blocks the high from building south and allowing the storm to go north. Yep, that's the biggest issue. Wouldn't side with the EURO this far out. Once we get to 120 hours will know a lot more. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Lets just be happy that there is still a storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Then why do you keep saying "we "We=my area/region. Sorry it's such an irritation to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 E6 AND E26 PLEASE lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 We=my area/region. Sorry it's such an irritation to you.Your area covers like 1% of the posters who post here. Majority is way north of you so a massive shift south would be bad for 80-90% of the posters here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 18z kind of looking like 12z euro so far through 180 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Northern wave getting well out of the way. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Northern wave getting well out of the way. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.pngthats a strong northern wave, the euro had it at like 1005 mb. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ugly ugly changes this run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ugly ugly changes this run Yeah if its going to hang out in Montana. It's going to get crushed by the high. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ugly ugly changes this run its a week out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/18Z/f210/sfcconus.pngGFS dove south out of montana Low now sits in E CO at 210 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Yeah if its going to hang out in Montana. It's going to get crushed by the high. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/18Z/f192/prateptypeconus.pngIt's way too warm because the high doesn't build in south in time Still has a storm though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 GFS wastes the storm. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Still looks pretty good for Iowa and portions of Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Still looks pretty good for Iowa and portions of Wisconsin.Except Cedar Rapids and Linn County get completely left out.... again Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Low goes too far north. Can't let the low eject out north of Denver.Still decent, but too far north for most of us. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 What are the odds that the Canadian high is able to build and keep this monster south? Models keep trending northward and I hate it. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Low goes too far north. Can't let the low eject out north of Denver.Still decent, but too far north for most of us. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/18Z/f264/acckucherasnowconus.pngid be happy with that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Don't put much stock into 06z/18z runs...they don't digest upper air...having said that, 18z GFS is having issues in the NE PAC. Just look at how much ridging the 12z run had in the NE PAC. It def is more aggressive with strong HP in western Canada but not in the NE PAC. As we get closer in time, the ensembles are growing more confident in building higher heights in the NE PAC and in western Canada. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Don't put much stock into 06z/18z runs...they don't digest upper air...having said that, 18z GFS is having issues in the NE PAC. Just look at how much ridging the 12z run had in the NE PAC. It def is more aggressive with strong HP in western Canada but not in the NE PAC. As we get closer in time, the ensembles are growing more confident in building higher heights in the NE PAC and in western Canada.Plus we are still 8-10 days out, I'm just hoping a storm stays on the models, which it should. Been pretty amazed by the consistency the models have been having, particularly the gfs. Can't get hung up by each model run, this is where the LRC plays in. I'm interested, if anybody has it, what's the ao and nao forecasted to be at during this time? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2016 Report Share Posted January 23, 2016 Plus we are still 8-10 days out, I'm just hoping a storm stays on the models, which it should. Been pretty amazed by the consistency the models have been having, particularly the gfs. Can't get hung up by each model run, this is where the LRC plays in. I'm interested, if anybody has it, what's the ao and nao forecasted to be at during this time?18z GFS trending towards neutral on both the AO/NAO while the Euro has a +AO/NAO.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 00z GFS does not eject the low out north of Denver. Thank God 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Looking better this run. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 really warm though Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 really warm thoughNot really...I wouldn't say 30's are really warm...just need the northern stream to dive down a bit more south and have better phasing. Wound up storm is still there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Not really...I wouldn't say 30's are really warm...just need the northern stream to dive down a bit more south and have better phasing. I guess, but I spoke too soon, I thought the low was moving quicker than it was. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 00z GFS ejects out a CO LOW which then digs down near the TX Panhandle and tracks towards the lower lakes. Not a bad run actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Close but too warm again. Man looks like a biggie too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 trend south about 200 miles please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 nice, GFS has 12-14 around here. I'll take that. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 That's more realistic then that 30-40 inch crap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 That's more realistic then that 30-40 inch crapstill has 24+ just not around here, yet Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Man, I would have bet $ that snow would have been farther south then the last run!Guess we have to get that low to eject out on the NM/CO border to be safe. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Man, I would have bet $ that snow would have been farther south then the last run!Guess we have to get that low to eject out on the NM/CO border to be safe. Seriously it looked pretty and then ejected too far west out of OK. Way better than earlier though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 GGEM 10:1 ratio http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160124/00Z/f216/24h10_1snowmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2016 Report Share Posted January 24, 2016 Ha. NYC missed the record snowfall by 0.1 inches They got 26.8 and the record was 26.9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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