Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[winterfreak]

So envious of those areas on the east coast. Now that's a storm.

[hlcater]

Ha. NYC missed the record snowfall by 0.1 inches

 

They got 26.8 and the record was 26.9 

but its still going?

[Maxim]

but its still going?

yeah, NYC was reporting -SN with the last obs. Looks like some 20 dbz bands are moving in too.

[Geos]

Ha. NYC missed the record snowfall by 0.1 inches

 

They got 26.8 and the record was 26.9 

 

Not done yet according to radar. One more band to go through.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[hlcater]

euro builds the high and keeps the storm south at 192

[Money]

Hmm....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160124/00Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png

[Tom]

00z Euro with the lead wave...then develops a system in the 4 corners at HR 216...

[winterfreak]

First wave takes a good track it looks like. I guess it's just way too warm for at least the lead wave.

[Iowa2015]

I believe king euro like the placement of the low better then what the gfs has been showing

[Iowa2015]

Now we just need the cold air to arrive sooner

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160124/00Z/f240/sfcmslpconus.png

[Geos]

00z Euro with the lead wave...then develops a system in the 4 corners at HR 216...

 

Wow, that's only from the lead wave!

[Tom]

Then the stronger wave starts forming on GHD...

[Tom]

00z GEFS...getting better...

[Money]

Really liking where I am for this system. 

[Tom]

Really liking where I am for this system. 

Yup, S/C WI sitting pretty good with this one so far.

[Tom]

Only thing that sucks about the Euro is it keeps the AO/NAO sky high this run with a +3 AO/+2 NAO...not a good signal for a wound up storm

[winterfreak]

Iowa and Wisconsin look to be in prime position as of now. Teleconnections would seem to favorable track for up that way.

[Iowa2015]

E 10,15,18,19 Anyone of the four would be nice as it spreads the wealth around.

[Money]

6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/06Z/f198/sfcconus.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/06Z/f222/sfcconus.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/06Z/f234/sfcconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/06Z/f240/sfcconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/06Z/f276/acckucherasnowmw.png

[jcwxguy]

12z gfs seems slower thus far

[Money]

HR 192

 

 

12z gfs seems slower thus far

 

Doesn't really have a storm so far. 

[Tom]

Both GGEM/GFS seem to have the AO near neutral during this period while the Euro is not agreeing.  I'd like to lean more towards the GFS/GGEM as they have been better with teleconnections.  The CFSv2 also agrees.  Need that northern stream to dig farther south and a lot of us on here will be happy.

[Money]

198:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/12Z/f198/sfcconus.png

 

 

Storm finally starting to develop/strengthen 

[Money]

Way south:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/12Z/f204/sfcconus.png

[Money]

It's still going to cut up towards the lakes.

 

24 hr snowfall through 210

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/12Z/f210/24hkucherasnowmw.png

[Tom]

12z GFS seems to be digging farther south into TX...good ol' Pan Handle hook...

[Money]

222

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/12Z/f222/sfcconus.png

[Tom]

Def colder this run...

[bud2380]

nice over run event for portions of the midwest/upper plains.  I wish that would extend a bit further east/southeast. 

[Money]

High is eating this thing up, not moving at all:

 

228

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/12Z/f228/sfcconus.png

[Tom]

Looks like it bowling balls east and gets cut-off in the south at 500mb...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016012412/gfs_z500_vort_us_40.png

[Money]

HR 240

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/12Z/f240/sfcconus.png

[Iowa2015]

Snow knocking on the door step @ 240 hr

[Money]

Total on GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/12Z/f252/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Iowa2015]

If that Snow band around hr 210 could shift east then up from the south that be amazing

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_168_0000.gif

[Money]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

[Iowa2015]

Also it be nice if that low could go futher north not shove off to the east so quickly

[Tom]

So far on the 12z runs today it seems the models are shifting the storm track.  Last nights 00z EPS shifted farther SE and so did the Control by a lot...