Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

06z GFS...

[FarmerRick]

Looks like someone's going to get a nice dose of the white stuff, but with the way the models are bouncing around from run to run, we may not know who that is until a day or two beforehand.

[Tom]

06z GEFS...

[Tom]

Another thing to watch is what happens to the placement of the Aleutian Low.  If it stays farther west, then it will allow to pump the NW NAMER ridge a lot better and dig that trough deep into the 4 corners.

[Guest daniel1]

Another thing to watch is what happens to the placement of the Aleutian Low. If it stays farther west, then it will allow to pump the NW NAMER ridge a lot better and dig that trough deep into the 4 corners.

I think the ridge in the east is a bigger thing to watch. The deeper the trough in the west the bigger the ridge in the east which allows for a more NW track.

[Tom]

You can see how last night the 00z Euro bundled the Aleutian Low and yesterday on its 12z run it had a piece of energy come off of it just SW of Alaska.  If the energy stays bundled and farther west then the downstream HP in southern Canada would work out a lot better.

[Tom]

I think the ridge in the east is a bigger thing to watch. The deeper the trough in the west the bigger the ridge in the east which allows for a more NW track.

Not necessarily, the down stream ridge in the east isn't that overwhelming (neutral PNA).  I'd like to see this storm dig farther south into the 4 corners.  The farther it can dig, the better odds this storm can spread the wealth.

[Tom]

Look at the surface pressures in the East...they are pretty minimal...its not like we are seeing a monster ridge like we did back in December (strong -PNA).

[Tom]

The ridging in western Canada act as a suppressing mechanism to the storm track.  Unlike in December, where there was a trough hugging NW NAMER and storms continually cut NW over and over again.

[winterfreak]

EURO takes a perfect track yet no snow. I couldn't draw the track better myself. Guess we have to have the perfect setup this winter to get anything close to significant.

[hlcater]

GFS isn't digging this low at all. Keeps ejecting it eastward into early. good news is there's like 40 highs in Canada.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160125/12Z/f252/acckucherasnowmw.png

[winterfreak]

Ouch on the GFS. Congrats to MSP. Hopefully this is the storm that flips it back to a colder pattern towards the second half of Feb.

[Iowa2015]

another epic disaster of a run by the GFS

[Tom]

Anyone have the 12z GGEM maps? On the road today...thanks.

[jcwxguy]

shows the storm and loses it at hour 240

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/output_RAIEBm_zpsmdr87pny.gif

[GDR]

Throwing the towel in. GFS has been better then euro

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f168/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

drier run for sure, at least for up here

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160125/12Z/f216/sfcmslpconus.png

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LNK    LAT=  40.85 LON=  -96.75 ELE=  1188
 

                                            12Z JAN25

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

SAT 18Z 30-JAN   8.0     8.3    1004      56      74    0.00     556     553    

SUN 00Z 31-JAN   7.0     7.4    1001      70      64    0.00     553     553    

SUN 06Z 31-JAN   3.0     3.5    1002      85      76    0.02     550     548    

SUN 12Z 31-JAN   1.5     1.9    1001      93      81    0.07     547     546    

SUN 18Z 31-JAN   3.2    -1.3    1004      84      97    0.02     545     542    

MON 00Z 01-FEB   1.2    -2.4    1007      94      93    0.09     543     537    

MON 06Z 01-FEB  -1.9    -2.2    1010      90      63    0.00     544     536    

MON 12Z 01-FEB  -2.0    -3.2    1012      86      50    0.00     544     534    

MON 18Z 01-FEB   0.4    -4.9    1016      77      70    0.00     544     531    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB  -1.0    -7.7    1017      79      84    0.01     543     529    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -6.5    -9.5    1022      66      88    0.04     542     525    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB -10.1   -11.7    1023      54      68    0.00     538     520    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -8.0   -13.3    1027      42      39    0.00     538     517    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -7.6   -11.2    1028      43      53    0.00     538     516    
 
 
 

 

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MCI    LAT=  39.28 LON=  -94.75 ELE=  1027
 

                                            12Z JAN25

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
 

MON 06Z 01-FEB   2.1    -1.2    1009      93      27    0.00     549     543    

MON 12Z 01-FEB   0.5    -1.7    1011      97      81    0.06     550     541    

MON 18Z 01-FEB   2.7    -2.9    1014      86      94    0.03     551     539    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   2.9    -3.1    1013      86      95    0.01     550     539    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -1.4    -4.9    1015      88      96    0.12     548     536    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -5.9    -6.2    1014      85      99    0.32     543     532    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -8.9    -9.3    1021      71      97    0.32     538     522    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -9.6    -9.5    1027      66      43    0.01     540     520    

W                                                           
 
 
 

 

[jcwxguy]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OSH    LAT=  43.98 LON=  -88.55 ELE=   807
 

                                            12Z JAN25

                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 

                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 

                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 

MON 12Z 25-JAN  -4.7    -2.7    1013      89      41    0.00     551     541    

MON 18Z 25-JAN  -0.1    -2.4    1009      84      29    0.00     549     541    

TUE 00Z 26-JAN   0.1    -1.2    1006      92     100    0.03     544     539    

TUE 06Z 26-JAN  -0.9    -5.2    1003      96      98    0.24     536     534    

TUE 12Z 26-JAN  -2.3    -8.9    1009      90      92    0.08     535     528    

TUE 18Z 26-JAN  -1.0    -9.2    1014      84      97    0.02     533     522    

WED 00Z 27-JAN  -2.5   -11.4    1019      83      99    0.02     533     518    
 

1    

FRI 18Z 29-JAN  -7.7    -5.7    1014      70      64    0.00     546     535    

SAT 00Z 30-JAN  -4.7    -1.5    1006      86      84    0.06     545     540    

SAT 06Z 30-JAN  -2.3    -3.4     997      90      99    0.05     534     537    

SAT 12Z 30-JAN  -2.4    -2.9     996      96      95    0.08     533     536    
 
 

MON 06Z 01-FEB  -0.5    -1.2    1005      94      76    0.00     540     536    

MON 12Z 01-FEB  -2.2    -3.7    1007      96      76    0.02     538     533    

MON 18Z 01-FEB   0.4    -6.5    1012      89      44    0.00     540     531    

TUE 00Z 02-FEB   0.0    -8.2    1015      87      20    0.00     543     531    

TUE 06Z 02-FEB  -2.2    -9.3    1018      86      30    0.00     543     529    

TUE 12Z 02-FEB  -6.7    -9.5    1019      83      68    0.00     541     527    

TUE 18Z 02-FEB  -7.3   -10.1    1016      83      71    0.01     538     526    

WED 00Z 03-FEB  -7.8   -15.1    1016      73      48    0.06     531     519    

WED 06Z 03-FEB -14.0   -16.2    1023      75      13    0.00     530     512    

WED 12Z 03-FEB -19.0   -17.9    1028      76      46    0.00     526     505    
 
 
 
 

 

[jcwxguy]

there ya go winterfreak

[Snowshoe]

It worked back in December. Maybe it will work again.

 

HERE BLEEZARD BLEEZARD!!!!

HERE BLEEZARD BLEEZARD!!!!

[Iowa2015]

Snow map?

[bud2380]

This run of the euro just slams Chicago with a direct hit. Clips southeast Iowa. Showing 4-5" imby

[bud2380]

[Tom]

Now that is what I was waiting for. Notice the bundled Aleutian Low pumping up the ridge in western CA.

 

What does ORD look like?

[Tom]

Thanks Bud. Long ways to go though. I'm liking the placement of the HP. Shifting west every 24 hrs. Digesting EPO signal.

[Guest daniel1]

image.jpg

Can you post the map thats shows the eastern lakes? Sorry I'm located in Toronto.

[winterfreak]

there ya go winterfreak

You had to do it. Thanks a bunch man.

[Geos]

Nice development in the EURO.

Can't wait to see the EPS.

 

[Iowa2015]

Decent track 7 inches Not holding my breath it verifys this far out still being a week out & run to run being all over the place. Chicargo takes a direct hit wins the jackpot on this run.

[mlgamer]

The Euro snow map puts me in the 9"-12" range.  It's fun to look at, but since I've only totaled 3.3" all winter and that snowfall is still days away, I won't get too excited anytime soon.

[OKwx2k4]

Nice development in the EURO.

Can't wait to see the EPS.

 

Further south please. Lol

[Geos]

Further south please. Lol

 

Would be nice if you got into the bottom of a comma head. Need phasing a little earlier for you to get snow.

 

I would wait until this time tomorrow, but since this looks like a big threat - I'll probably start a thread on this system a day earlier than I normally would.