Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[james1976]

Have you ever even seen projected 40" totals for one storm?  I don't think I ever have for this part of the country, for a whole run maybe, but not for one storm.

I don't recall any!

[Niko]

I don't recall any!

Only on the EC!

[weatherfan2012]

What a flip in the Euro Weeklies to a much colder/stormier central/eastern CONUS...primarily in the central states. NW NAMER ridge pops by the 14th of Feb and never lets go. During this time frame the STJ is on fire coming out of the southwest. Feb could turn out to be one hellova month, esp with the PV falling apart.

would fit with phils idea of the pattern having major potential again from mid febuary through early March.after the pattern reload the first 4 to 7 days of the month.

[Niko]

This El Nino is really acting up this winter. Dry and seasonable, if not above average tempwise. Today was an absolute beautiful day. Sunny and mild with mid 40's. It actually felt so nice being outside and enjoying this fantastic weather in late January.

 

FWIW: For my area, nothing happening this week, so, ba bye January. Lets see what February has to offer because we are running outta time. Once March arrives, everything changes. Longer days, higher sun angle and etc and etc. Plus, by mid to late March, the excitement for snow leaves and another weather phenomenon enters and that is "Severe Weather". By that time, I look forward to Thunderstorm activity. 

[Grizzcoat]

. What did it have for today?

[Geos]

This El Nino is really acting up this winter. Dry and seasonable, if not above average tempwise. Today was an absolute beautiful day. Sunny and mild with mid 40's. It actually felt so nice being outside and enjoying this fantastic weather in late January.

 

Wow, you got that warm. That's been the theme this whole winter though. SE MI gets warmer ahead of a system.

Still below normal for the month here.

[Geos]

Here's the storm thread.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1179-ghd-winter-storm-possibility-feb-1st-3rd/

 

Slightly early to call the shots yet, but pretty excited to say the least.

[Tom]

Those SST's in the N PAC look fantastic for the rest of this Winter.  Nice cold tongue of waters streaming off of Siberia to just south of the Aleutians which will keep the pacific storm train in check.  Warm waters hugging NW NAMER that will pop the NW NAMER ridge in Feb & Mar.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Waters continue to warm in the GOA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[OKwx2k4]

That's good. Idk about implications on the rest of winter really, (too little, too late) but it's a promising sign that we may not have to endure an overbearingly hot summer for one more year here in the central states. Not a statement of fact or a forecast, just a hunch.

[Tom]

Models starting to show the PV split by Week 2...UKMET & GFS are on board...let's see if trend continues.  If this happens, I think we'll have a good probability of Winter hanging on well into March.

[Niko]

Models starting to show the PV split by Week 2...UKMET & GFS are on board...let's see if trend continues.  If this happens, I think we'll have a good probability of Winter hanging on well into March.

Not sure about your area, but, this winter IMBY has been fairly light. More like Washington DC or Virginia type of winter. Lets see if February and March can make up for it, at least up to mid March. Anything snow after that is garbage.

[Geos]

Safe to say the Polar Vortex is off the pole now and already split at the bottom.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

After the Day 5-10 cold shot, the 00z EPS reloads the cold Day 10-15.  It looks brutal with a direct dislodge of the arctic over the Lakes with a couple more systems to track.

[Tom]

Trending colder and wetter for the nation's midsection on the CFSv2 for the month of Feb...are we going to have a backloaded stormier/colder pattern???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201602.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201602.gif

[Geos]

I hope the CFS has a clue about February's precipitation this time around. It was too far west with the warm signal for this month.

[Tom]

Another wild cold run on the EPS Day 10-15...

[Tom]

The latest Euro Weeklies is seeing the NW NAMER ridge pop around Feb 8th and never negates for the entire month.  Probably the coldest run yet this entire season.  Reminds me of some of the runs I saw during the winter of 2013-2014.  The difference this time around, I see an active STJ locking in with a wild jet cutting up from the desert southwest/southern plains.  I think the coming  GHD storm is probably going to kick off one of the more memorable February's in recent years. Should be a fun ride, I hope.

[OKwx2k4]

I guess I can hope the jet cuts through eastern OK all month but I have my doubts. Cold and dry for me or rain to sheared out crap is probably the way February will go here.

[Tom]

Lovin' the trend in the CFSv2 for the month of Feb.  Precip anomaly showing an active SW Flow out of the 4 corners region...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201602.gif

 

Temps are flipping fast over the last few days also...the model is finally catching onto the northern latitude blocking...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201602.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20160129.201602.gif

 

12z EPS has off the charts cold/wet signal for these same regions.  Feb is going to be as wild as it gets IMO.  Hoping to track a few more monster storms next month.

[Tom]

Complete PV split is forecast to happen around Feb 11-15th.  Once that happens, I don't see Spring coming anytime soon.  Probably will continue through mid March.  Still have a good 45+ days of Winter to go IMO.  Might even have some early April snows somewhere.  The back half of this Winter has legs.

[Maxim]

Doubt that happens, but I don't think anyone would be very excited about that anyway.

[Maxim]

For the record, JB doesn't even think this spring will be cold... that's saying something right there.

[Tom]

For the record, JB doesn't even think this spring will be cold... that's saying something right there.

Who cares what he thinks!  I have a mind of my own that works great.  There will be warm days in late March & April.  It's not to say that an April snow won't fall, esp with what will happen in the higher latitudes in early Spring.

[Maxim]

Who cares what he thinks!  I have a mind of my own that works great.  There will be warm days in late March & April.  It's not to say that an April snow won't fall, esp with what will happen in the higher latitudes in early Spring.

didn't you used to follow him though? That's what I was getting at before at least.

[Tom]

didn't you used to follow him though? That's what I was getting at before at least.

Yes I do follow him, but I don't necessarily have to believe EVERYTHING he says.  He has some good points and methods of long range forecasting that I have picked up on.  However, I have added more tools in my arsenal that I use and have worked well.  It's a learning experience everyday.

[winterfreak]

Cold doesn't matter if the timing isn't right. Been shafted by every single storm this year. Kind of ready for spring.

[OKwx2k4]

First time I've seen 100 consecutive hours below freezing down here out of any model for awhile. Nice cold signal starting to pop up at the least. Last 100 on GFS is just plain cold.

[OKwx2k4]

Guess you all already covered that. Lol

[winterfreak]

Useless without storms to interact with it.

[OKwx2k4]

I agree. It just has the permanent day 10-12 storm it's been showing since November 15th. Lol. One of these times it may be right.

[winterfreak]

Nope I'm honestly done with this winter. Every storm threat had crapped out at the five day mark and never come back. Two bad winters in a row for even here. Nothing we can do about it.

[Niko]

Nope I'm honestly done with this winter. Every storm threat had crapped out at the five day mark and never come back. Two bad winters in a row for even here. Nothing we can do about it.

Its gonna feel so nice here this weekend with temps approaching the 40s and near 50 possibly for Sunday. Very mild winter indeed. Not complaining because my heating bill was quite low thing winter. That means more money in my pocket.

[Tom]

Another Day 10 Fantasy Land storm on the horizon and fits very well with the LRC.  This should develop sometime around the Feb 9th-11th time frame.  Occasionally, the GFS has been picking up on this system.  The GGEM/EURO are showing signs of it as well.  During LRC cycle #2, a powerfull 988mb SLP formed near the TX Panhandle and tracked through KC and then by the Lakes.  This storm had a nice comma head shape to it which brought heavy rains and Tornado's into TN/MS/AL.

 

12z EPS starting to pick up a rather strong signal for being this far out.  I think this will be another fun storm to track once our GHD storm departs.  Get your saddles ready, bc we're going to have another long ride tracking this storm.  It should be a big ticket item on the table.

[winterfreak]

Another Day 10 Fantasy Land storm on the horizon and fits very well with the LRC. This should develop sometime around the Feb 9th-11th time frame. Occasionally, the GFS has been picking up on this system. The GGEM/EURO are showing signs of it as well. During LRC cycle #2, a powerfull 988mb SLP formed near the TX Panhandle and tracked through KC and then by the Lakes. This storm had a nice comma head shape to it which brought heavy rains and Tornado's into TN/MS/AL.

 

12z EPS starting to pick up a rather strong signal for being this far out. I think this will be another fun storm to track once our GHD storm departs. Get your saddles ready, bc we're going to have another long ride tracking this storm. It should be a big ticket item on the table.

Keep fighting the good fight Tom. I admire your optimism.

[Snowlover76]

My back hurts from shoveling all this day 10 snow

[Tom]

Keep fighting the good fight Tom. I admire your optimism.

BTW, when I post about storms, it's not a direct reflection for a MBY storm.  This is supposed to be very general to say the least.  It's a fantasy land storm that should come to fruition.  Where it tracks?  Who will get hit?  That is all part of the drive to track these large systems.  I really hope you get hit this month.  KC is due...over due IMO.  There will be another big storm 3-4 days after that one come mid Feb that should be fun to track.  Feb is going to be wild and a thriller.  Def not boring....and hoping you and I can cash in on some whoppers.

[Tom]

My back hurts from shoveling all this day 10 snow

Go to the chiro...this a 5+ day long range thread...

[jaster220]

BTW, when I post about storms, it's not a direct reflection for a MBY storm.  This is supposed to be very general to say the least.  It's a fantasy land storm that should come to fruition.  Where it tracks?  Who will get hit?  That is all part of the drive to track these large systems.  I really hope you get hit this month.  KC is due...over due IMO.  There will be another big storm 3-4 days after that one come mid Feb that should be fun to track.  Feb is going to be wild and a thriller.  Def not boring....and hoping you and I can cash in on some whoppers.

 

  Though you may not be shadowing JB these days, I still speak of you as "JB Jr." and that bolded setence says it almost as well as he might!    Don't be offended, I always loved JB's hype even if it didn't always pan out in the end. 15 yrs ago it was harder to nail things at the 15 day range (sarcasm free of charge). His long ranger vid's were awesome for the winter enthusiast back in the days b4 AGW took center stage.

[Tom]

PNA is forecast to relax by mid month and that would bode well for a good storm track across the central CONUS.  The LRC's "wet" pattern is poised to develop by Week 2 and last though early March.  There were some juicy/dynamic storms during this stretch.  In the foreseeable future, the northern half of our sub-forum will see the majority of the action over the next 7-10 days.

[Tom]

I find it interesting that both the JAMSTEC/CanSIPS model are seeing a  mod/strong La Nina by next Fall...

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2016.1jan2016.gif

 

Very similar SST's in the N PAC also...cold waters north of Hawaii and warm waters hugging NW NAMER...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016020100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_9.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016020100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_10.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2016020100/cansips_ssta_noice_global_11.png