Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[hlcater]

This is going to be extremely fun to track, I don't recall seeing this much agreement on such a strong storm this far out.

[Tom]

12z EPS...digs this storm deep into TX and then ejects NE towards lower lakes...very similar to the GEFS...Control to far NW...

[Tom]

12z Control similar to the operational in track and snowfall...taking a look at the individual members...there are a lot of huge hitters...this is going to be a wild one.

[Tom]

12z EPS AO/NAO has trended slightly weaker on the positive anomaly...

[Money]

Really excited to track this over the next week

 

Could be a huge storm

[hlcater]

Really excited to track this over the next week

 

Could be a huge storm

I think someone is gonna get it good, but its a matter of where...

[jcwxguy]

18z gfs looks good here

[hlcater]

GFS holding it way south MO-AR border

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160124/18Z/f240/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Iowa2015]

Like the placement one of the best runs yet slight eastward would be in order to go from 11 inches to 17 inches.

[james1976]

Like the placement one of the best runs yet slight eastward would be in order to go from 11 inches to 17 inches.

No need to get locked in on every single run of every model. Its gonna be a while before models come together on a solution.

[Geos]

GFS trolling Milwaukee on that run. Weird hole there.

 

It's baby stepping back to the earlier solutions it had. I expect the EURO to cave to the GFS later in the week.

[Money]

FYI gfs ensembles are much farther north than the op

[Money]

Ensembles:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012418/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png

[hlcater]

ensemble snowfall maps?

[Money]

I don't have those. 

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/f228.gif

[bud2380]

http://i.imgur.com/Fc2FNKa.png

[Money]

E8, E14, E16 not bad

 

Most of them show a good snowfall. 

[hlcater]

I have a bad feeling I may get missed to the NW

[winterfreak]

I have a bad feeling I may get missed to the NW

You're not alone.

[Guest daniel1]

E8, E14, E16 not bad

 

Most of them show a good snowfall.

Cause they're good for Wisconsin right?

[Money]

0z GFS down to 982 in E. CO at HR 192

[Tom]

Gonna cut wayy NW this run....

[winterfreak]

Yep just what I was about to say. Cutting way west.

[Tom]

Storm needs to dig deep into the 4 corners....00z GFS just bowling balls this storm right through the central Rockies...

[Money]

Gonna cut wayy NW this run....

 

Gonna cut to western Minnesota lol 

[Tom]

Dakotas special...

[Money]

Bright side is it still shows a storm.

[jcwxguy]

hour 213 low over lincoln  LOL

[winterfreak]

Seems rather Euroish with its track.

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160125/00Z/f222/24hkucherasnowconus.png

[clintbeed1993]

Sigh..onto the next storm in late February. LOL

[Money]

That high's not in a very good spot either. You want it more centered over Minny/Dakotas compared to Michigan. 

[jcwxguy]

if the track is similar in 4-5 days then ill give up,  until then, plenty of time for things to change 

[winterfreak]

It's hard to see a storm that strong not tracking pretty far NW. It's so wound up. Still plenty of time though.

[hlcater]

0z GFS was disgusting

[hlcater]

Most of the eps ensembles and the euro and the GFS all cut it northwest. Sigh

[Guest daniel1]

When in doubt just follow the winter pattern so far and that is for rain rain and more rain.

[Money]

GGEM pretty much says what storm? A very weak system that goes through southern IL