Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[GDR]

[Iowa2015]

10+ on that map now that be nice still a week out thougth.

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

YUK

[hlcater]

Dang it, it's like the models are avoiding my house

[OKwx2k4]

Would be nice if you got into the bottom of a comma head. Need phasing a little earlier for you to get snow.

 

I would wait until this time tomorrow, but since this looks like a big threat - I'll probably start a thread on this system a day earlier than I normally would.

I'm just hoping for one good snow. I know hitting my average in this pattern is a losing bet but I just want the ground completely white one time. There's been only 3 snowless winters in my town since 1941 and I've seen 2 of them. I don't want to see this one be another one.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am trying to stay patient and optimistic as the models keep flipping.  We are still about a week away so I don't want to get to high or low but tough for me to do that.

[FV-Mike]

A general note but interesting to see LOT mentioning the system this far out in their afternoon AFD

 

"WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WHILE MODEL UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE IS A DECENT
SIGNAL OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH
DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THE 2-3RD OF FEBRUARY."

[Geos]

A general note but interesting to see LOT mentioning the system this far out in their afternoon AFD

 

"WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATER

IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...WHILE MODEL UNCERTAINTY

INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE IS A DECENT

SIGNAL OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TROUGH

DEVELOPING...WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT

STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THE 2-3RD OF FEBRUARY."

 

Yeah I know one of the met's that work at the office and he said on amwx, that the office was weening out after the Euro run! 

They know it would be really something to have a snowstorm on Groundhogs day again.

[Money]

18z gfs is gonna come in a good bit south than 12z

[Money]

6-12+ for Nebraska and Iowa through 189

[jcwxguy]

looking good to me

 

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_198_zpsq497nrti.gif

[Geos]

 

 

[Money]

Gfs showing 14 inches of snow in 6 hours ...in southern wisconsin

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160125/18Z/f204/24hkucherasnowmw.png

[winterfreak]

Corrected south a bit.

[jcwxguy]

72hr total

 

[Geos]

So close. Don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out yet anyways.

 

Milwaukee to Madison would get blasted.

[Tony]

GFS slowly sinking its way south

[hlcater]

I like that, strange hole over E IA though.

[Tony]

Just look at the huge potential of this storm. This has the GOM wide open for business with the STJ feeding into it as well.

[james1976]

WOW

[hlcater]

if the GFS can slide a bit SE and the euro can slide a bit NW we are good.

[hlcater]

start a thread? This system is screaming with potential.

[Money]

Look at the placement of the high on the gfs

 

Nearly perfect spot. This thing isn't cutting north into that

[Geos]

I think the GFS hangs the low around for a bit too long, otherwise it's turning into good.

 

I'll start a thread before the 0z runs come in tonight.

[winterfreak]

A bit further south please.

[Tony]

I think the GFS hangs the low around for a bit too long, otherwise it's turning into good.

 

I'll start a thread before the 0z runs come in tonight.

That would be something if it did happen but you don't see that too often.

[CentralNebWeather]

Wow, NWS Hastings already talking about this potential storm a week a way.  They rarely ever do this as they are usually very conservative on their forecasts.

 

The biggest concern will be toward the end of the long term forecast
with accumulating snow looking more and more like a possibility
toward Monday and just beyond the long term forecast scope into
Tuesday next week.

 

The mean trough ejects a shortwave into the plains by late Sunday

night/Monday time frame with rapid cyclogenesis possible in the Lee
of The Rockies. There could be a significant amount of isentropic
lift ahead of the wave as the previously mentioned cold front could
stall just south of the County Warning Area...allowing for ample moisture to override
the cooler air. 850 mb temperatures seem to be cold enough to
support some measurable snowfall beginning Sunday night into Monday.
The European model (ecmwf) brings in colder aloft and would support more snow as
opposed to the warmer GFS. Still a little shaky Sunday night/Monday
on whether some of this will be rain...but the potential is there
for snow.

When the low pulls through the Central Plains Monday
night/Tuesday...we could be in the range of the deformation
band...which could mean even more snow. Although this is just past
the scope of the current long range forecast...long range models
seem to be coming into better agreement already...but with the European model (ecmwf)
a bit farther north with the track near the Nebraska/Kansas border
as it tracks northeast across the County Warning Area and the GFS solution is
farther south...just south of the County Warning Area. The actual track could
ultimately be farther south if the mean trough to the west digs
more. If this happens...we could be squarely within the main
deformation band. Temperatures should not be terribly cold at the
beginning of the week as the cooler air will be Pacific in origin
and not Arctic. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

WOW

 

Have you ever even seen projected 40" totals for one storm?  I don't think I ever have for this part of the country, for a whole run maybe, but not for one storm.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro Control.. remember to subtract todays snowfall

[Tom]

Both the 12z EPS/Control starting to shift the placement of the HP in southern Canada just north of the Dakotas.  This was exactly the same scenarios for both GHD storms back in 2011 & 2015.  I certainly like the way this thing is trending for Chicago.  Couple days ago I was worried about it cutting NW but it seems the models are now seeing this storm dig farther south in the 4 corners region.

 

Below are the 12z EPS mean MSLP and Control...the control run doesn't bundle all the energy and leaves a piece down near the Gulf.  Loads of precip showing up on both the GFS/EURO.

 

 

18z GEFS came in a bit more south also...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012518/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_35.png

 

 

 

 

[hlcater]

now I'm worried that it may go too far south. Can never win lol

[Tom]

Saw this post from Dr. Judah...notice the intense vertical transfer going on right now...could the models be seeing this and digesting this data????

 

http://www.aer.com/sites/default/files/Figure7al.png

[Tom]

Nice update on the AO from AER...

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[jcwxguy]

Euro Control.. remember to subtract todays snowfall

. What did it have for today?

[Geos]

Saw this post from Dr. Judah...notice the intense vertical transfer going on right now...could the models be seeing this and digesting this data????

 

 

There's the SSW. Polar vortex is done, thank goodness.

[Tom]

What a flip in the Euro Weeklies to a much colder/stormier central/eastern CONUS...primarily in the central states.  NW NAMER ridge pops by the 14th of Feb and never lets go.  During this time frame the STJ is on fire coming out of the southwest.  Feb could turn out to be one hellova month, esp with the PV falling apart.

[gosaints]

There's the SSW. Polar vortex is done, thank goodness.

Nice confidence. No guarantee. You can tell judah isnt convinced

[Tom]

Next storm threat in early Feb already showing up in the Plains/Lakes by the 7th/8th of Feb...right on schedule according to LRC.

[Geos]

Nice confidence. No guarantee. You can tell judah isnt convinced

 

It's already significantly weaker than in December, not a long shot to believe it's done with in the 6-10 day range.