Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Tom]

12z GFS teleconnections...would support a shifting track...

[Iowa2015]

12 + Now lock that in place Hopefully this trend verify so we all can get in on the action to kick off Feb

[jcwxguy]

gem animation 

 

(first wave, then ends with start of 2nd)

[Tom]

My hunch on models not digesting the EPO/Strat Warming may now begin to show...it's still early in the game but I think we will begin to see some sort of Panhandle Hook like we saw in LRC cycle #2.  Ultimately, this storm has good potential to spread the wealth for the sub-forum.

 

Notes aside, check out the Northern America snow cover...almost at 10 year highs!

 

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/plots/daily_snow_extent/multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png

[Tom]

gem animation 

 

(first wave, then ends with start of 2nd)

Ya, looks like a 1 - 2 punch type of system.  Euro showed it last night and now the GGEM is seeing it.  Still enough variability in the models to see how this plays out.

[Geos]

I think on the GFS your seeing an incomplete phase until it gets to the Ohio Valley. Would explain the break in the snow band.

[hlcater]

Euro at 168 is ripe for a northward turn. No high in Canada whatsoever.,

[Tom]

Euro at 168 is ripe for a northward turn. No high in Canada whatsoever.,

Big difference is the second stronger wave is digging farther south along the west coast compared to the 12z GFS.

[Money]

850's look pretty cold

[Tom]

12z Euro developing a strong 992mb SLP in SE CO/NW OK...

[Money]

990 in SE CO at hr 192

[Tom]

This is a nice looking phased trough at HR 192....nice snows breaking out in NE..

[hlcater]

North too soon.

[Money]

Looks warm need the high to be centered more over dakotas and Minnesota

[Tom]

Cutting far NW this run...C NE gets hit good...snow to mix for E NE/IA...

[Tom]

A juicy beast on the 12z Euro....goes neg tilt and forms a nice trowal signature...thunderstorms for Chicago this run...lol

[hlcater]

euro http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160124/12Z/f240/sfcmslpconus.png

Euro has a 983mb low in N Wisc.

[jcwxguy]

going to see lots of swings the next week

[Tom]

Bombs out as a western lakes cutter....wow...979mb...

[Tom]

Woah....some of that snow in E NE/IA/W WI is mix...

[hlcater]

If we could move that bomb a bit south and east, say put it over Geos and we are good.

[jcwxguy]

animated

[hlcater]

just needs to dig just a teeny tiny bit more into OK and TX

[Money]

Yeah that was the big reason it went so far north

 

The high needs to come in farther west

[Money]

Tom what does euro show for Monday and Tuesday here ?

[Tom]

Tom what does euro show for Monday and Tuesday here ?

2-4"

[Tom]

Euro/GFS night/day with the AO/NAO....

[jcwxguy]

will be interesting to see the control and ensembles

[Tom]

The 12z Euro looses the strength of HP in western CA at HR 192 compared to previous runs when the ensembles are all increasing.  Doesn't make sense.  Something's gotta give.

[hlcater]

if we can keep the high this could be a major snowstorm for IA.

[jcwxguy]

Euro/GFS night/day with the AO/NAO....

 

 

The 12z Euro looses the strength of HP in western CA at HR 192 compared to previous runs when the ensembles are all increasing.  Doesn't make sense.  Something's gotta give.

 

Yeah. Hopefully it can spread the wealth for everyone here

[Tom]

Look at the run to run difference from last night....doh!

[Iowa2015]

Not a run for the euro needs more of a eastward movement before cutting to the north.

[winterfreak]

Strong storm but ouch on the track out of OK. Needs to dig further SE into Texas. Like what the GFS was showing last night.

[jcwxguy]

how do the 12z  GEFS members look

[Tom]

how do the 12z  GEFS members look

12z GEFS digging farther SE into Amarillo, TX towards E OK, then tracks towards lower lakes...

[Tony]

GFS/GEM takes southern route and Europe goes north into Canada. I wonder which will be correct. My guess this far out the European is out to lunch and has pretty much been hibernating all winter long. Stay asleep my friend...stay asleep.

[Tom]

GFS/GEM takes southern route and Europe goes north into Canada. I wonder which will be correct. My guess this far out the European is out to lunch and has pretty much been hibernating all winter long. Stay asleep my friend...stay asleep.

Hahaha...I like that...at least it's showing a bomb diggidy in the central CONUS...more and more GEFS are showing sub 980's...would like to see the teleconnections shift more netural than positive on the Euro.

[Tom]

12z JMA carving out a deep trough at HR 192...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016012412/jma_z500_vort_us_9.png

You'd think this system would dig farther south given the time of year at which the jet is reaching peak intensity.

[Tony]

Hahaha...I like that...at least it's showing a bomb diggidy in the central CONUS...more and more GEFS are showing sub 980's...would like to see the teleconnections shift more netural than positive on the Euro.

I agree. Lots of time to model watch this one but at least there is a big storm to track. I'm sure we will see a couple runs where this bombs out somewhere on the EC. I remember the GHD storm where a model was showing it out to sea about 72hrs out. Looking forward to seeing the runs next weekend.