Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[Money]

Ha. GGEM and UKMET says the east coast does it again early-mid next week

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160123/12Z/f144/24hkucherasnowconus.png

 

Another 12-18 inch snowstorm 

[Iowa2015]

Give me one 40 + inch Snow storm over a couple day + period I won't care where rest of the storms track this winter.

[Money]

Give me one 40 + inch Snow storm over a couple day + period I won't care where rest of the storms track this winter.

 

That's not asking for much considering I don't think anyone in the MW ever got 40 inches of snow from a storm.

[Money]

12z GFS Ensemble Mean

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012312/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_45.png

[Money]

HR 240

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016012312/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png

 

 

Once again, ridiculous consistency this far out.

[Tom]

I could see this ending up being a 1st wave that producing over-running snows, then the storm develops in the southern Plains tracking towards the Lakes with a 1 - 2 punch.  Long duration event on the table who ever finds themselves in the jackpot zone.  Not to mention, Lehs in WI and maybe IL if the track shifts SE.

[Iowa2015]

I'm sure that's what they saying right about now in Washington dc Possible 18 + next week.     ​

[winterfreak]

Looks like Baltimore and the capital will end up with less than what was forecasted. Philly and NYC might end up with more.

[Tom]

Onto the 12z Euro...

 

Looks like Baltimore and the capital will end up with less than what was forecasted. Philly and NYC might end up with more.

Talk about a last minute shift or shaft rather...lol...still though, DC has over 2Ft so can't complain there.

[Money]

I'm sure that's what they saying right about now in Washington dc Possible 18 + next week.     ​

 

The east coast has a much higher chance of getting big storms because of the Atlantic ocean.

[Money]

Onto the 12z Euro...

 

Talk about a last minute shift or shaft rather...lol...still though, DC has over 2Ft so can't complain there.

 

How the individual GFS ensembles look?

[gabel23]

Pre Feb 1st storm:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f216/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Post Feb 2nd/3rd storm

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/06Z/f288/acckucherasnowmw.png

That would be the craziest week we have seen around here in over 50 years. That is what we would see in a season! Like I said before, it always seems like we see large storm systems on the coast followed by another monster in the plains/great lakes. It's amazing to see the consistency; gonna be a fun ride boys!!

[winterfreak]

Places in the Blue Ridge are over 40" already. That actually sounds fairly miserable to me honestly. Two feet would be my limit. After that you can have it. On to the EURO.

[Money]

I could see this ending up being a 1st wave that producing over-running snows, then the storm develops in the southern Plains tracking towards the Lakes with a 1 - 2 punch. Long duration event on the table who ever finds themselves in the jackpot zone. Not to mention, Lehs in WI and maybe IL if the track shifts SE.

Yup only way the high totals verify

[hlcater]

euro is 988 over Dodge City, KS with a 1011 MB south canadian high

[jcwxguy]

sounds similar low placement as gfs

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f192/sfcmslpconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f192/850mbtempsconus.png

[Money]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f216/500mbheightsmslpconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160123/12Z/f216/850mbtempsconus.png

[winterfreak]

Looks very warm ahead of it for sure.

[hlcater]

euro is disgusting all the way through

[Money]

Big difference is that northern stream clipper up in central/southern Canada at HR 192. That blocks the high from building south and allowing the storm to go north.

[Snowlover76]

sounds similar low placement as gfs

I might lose it if we get rain from this.  My parents might break 30" with this storm and then more next week while we get rain here. 

[jcwxguy]

glad it still shows a storm

[Tony]

Euro is a terrible model especially this far out. No reason to look at it even if it showed a blizzard

[Money]

Here is GFS at HR 192

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160123/12Z/f192/sfcconus.png

 

Note how far south that northern stream is and look at how far south the high pressure is already compared to EURO. Both show a storm but that's going to be the key to this storm and how far south or north it tracks. 

[hlcater]

Big difference is that northern stream clipper up in central/southern Canada at HR 192. That blocks the high from building south and allowing the storm to go north.

exactly, as soon as I saw the high was weaker I had a hint that we may be in trouble, the high built too little too late

[Money]

exactly, as soon as I saw the high was weaker I had a hint that we may be in trouble, the high built too little too late

 

The storm also developed a lot quicker on the euro compared to GFS. GFS really didn't eject out until about 24 hours later than the euro. 

[Snowlover76]

Euro is a terrible model especially this far out. No reason to look at it even if it showed a blizzard

The GFS/NAM did pretty good with the east coast storm today.  The Euro pretty much bowed to it. 

[hlcater]

This winter has not favored the Euro, the GFS has done fairly well...

[james1976]

I would favor GFS right now (not cuz its showing most of us getting blasted).......but its done better than the Euro this winter. The updates they did to that model have seemed to work well.

[bud2380]

The gfs has performed quite well in this time frame. Twc said the gfs was the first to pickup on Jonas, while the euro lagged behind

[Snowlover76]

The gfs has performed quite well in this time frame. Twc said the gfs was the first to pickup on Jonas, while the euro lagged behind

The GFS and the NAM were they two models that picked up on the north trend that put places like NYC into the 24+ range when they were getting around 4" 

[Tom]

The 12z Euro run was extremely disorganized and doesn't make sense to me.  It has various pieces of energy scattered around and doesn't bundle up the energy like the GFS.  The Euro has had to much low pressure in western Canada in previous runs and is now showing more HP.

 

Check out the 12z run from today...compare it to last night...you can see the lower heights on the 12z run near the Yukon (not supposed to happen).  Also, the Euro from run to run,is starting to increase HP in the NE PAC which I expected to see given the nature of the models error handling the warm waters off the NW NAMER coast.

 

[Tom]

On the Day 10 12z Euro run today, check out how much more HP is centered in western/southern Canada and compare it to last night.  

 

More importantly, the Euro likes to drag its feet and leaving energy behind in the southwest to long.  Last night it had more energy ejected out quicker but not enough HP in Canada.  Now, imagine if today's run had the energy all come out at once with all that blocking to the north!  You wouldn't have the kind of separation of energy and the storm wouldn't ride into the northern Plains.  Instead, the storm should eject out near the TX Panhandle where this storm should be tracking.

 

That's why I believe in the LRC being a good tool to forecast tracks and figuring out which model may be right or wrong 5-10 days out.

[Tom]

I also feel the models are "feeling" some effects of the massive energy transfer going on from the troposphere to the stratosphere.  The GFS has it beginning today through the end of the month.  Dr. Judah Cohen has been talking a lot about this lately.

 

Might be a reason why the models are seeing the EPO slide back towards neutral/negative territory.

 

My theory has been watching what happens at 30mb 2-3 weeks before and notice the location where it blossoms.  If you can see the image below, the blossoming occurs right over NW NAMER around Jan 10th which is EXACTLY where the heights will rise late next week!  Coincidence???  I think not.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[Tom]

00z EPS vs 12z EPS MSLP comparison...NE PAC heights rise even farther which results in a southerly shift in its ensemble.  Let's see if how the entire run looks.

[bud2380]

EPS control is much further west at this point with the  main feature than the GFS

 

http://i.imgur.com/KEPREqW.png

[Tom]

12z EPS shifted SE from 00z and has the mean SLP over Chicago on today's run comparing it to last night tracking through E IA.  Today's 12z EPS run would be almost identical to what happened in LRC cycle #2.  Interesting.

[Tom]

Some of the Euro members...

[winterfreak]

We need a massive south shift. Thank goodness it's still over a week out.