Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[jaster220]

GFS really upped snowfall accumulations for Monday and early Tuesday.

If trends hold another 24 hours, I'll start a thread.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160120/18Z/f168/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Was the snow always that far north? Puts mby on the SE fringe of decent stuff. What a kick that'll be if after days and days of single digits it gets too warm when this comes through. Good Luck over there though - looks like your magnet's dialed in again.

[Geos]

Was the snow always that far north? Puts mby on the SE fringe of decent stuff. What a kick that'll be if after days and days of single digits it gets too warm when this comes through. Good Luck over there though - looks like your magnet's dialed in again.

 

It was a disorganized storm until now.

 

We need to lose that storm in southern Canada or have it scoot by quicker. It would allow the high in back of it to slide southward quicker.

 

 

Here was the real good run yesterday. The low dives into NE instead of towards Lake Superior.

 

[Geos]

Would like to know what the EURO does with the Day 11 storm. Does not look organized from this map.  

 

[hlcater]

that nearly straight 0c line. dont see that too often

 

Would like to know what the EURO does with the Day 11 storm. Does not look organized from this map.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016012012/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

[OKwx2k4]

Ejecting fast is better. Slower means it digs more.

I know. Good for you. Bad for me.

[Geos]

I know. Good for you. Bad for me.

 

Or we need a slow ejection far enough south to give you some snow too. Once it gets past the Mississippi River then it can swing further north.

[hlcater]

Or we need a slow ejection far enough south to give you some snow too. Once it gets past the Mississippi River then it can swing further north.

Then that leaves me out

[Geos]

Low of the 28th diving more SE ward. System after will end up further east I'm guessing.

System on Monday not quite as organized this run. Maybe a 2-4" swath for a few.

[Geos]

Different solution coming out on that SW system...

Going to be weaker I think...

[Geos]

Weird...

SW is slower to eject out because it waits for the northern stream piece to go by. Then it comes out and does not hook.

 

 

[winterfreak]

Looks pretty decent. Still a very weird evolution.

[Geos]

Well it does hook, but not like before.

 

 

 

 

[ToastedRavs]

That system on the first of February bears watching. Not only for the snow, but that's also caucus night here in Iowa. That could sway turnout if it holds true.

 

 

On a separate note can you imagine if we had the storm that Virginia and Maryland are going to get. This board would be lit up...but go to the east coast page and all is quiet. What gives?

[Iowa2015]

That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,

[gosaints]

That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,

???

[hlcater]

Strange how the GFSLR has had this storm every single run. Track  varies widely but that is to be expected this far out.

[ToastedRavs]

That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,

Would that be March of '93, Jan '96, Dec 09 or Feb 2010? If you don't think Maryland and Virginia are going to get walloped, I want what you're smoking

[Tom]

Euro showing the PV displaced off the pole by Day 10...

 

Here is the current situation...then Day 10...that storm system which opens February is going to be a fun storm to track which will likely ignite an active pattern of larger scale storms IMO.

 

Euro showing an active NW Flow pattern next week after the weak Mon/Tue system.  Showing two systems coming down out of CA mid/late next week before the BIG one starts brewing sometime on or after the Day 10 period.

[winterfreak]

Looks touchy on models through at least day ten. Hope that storm in Feb produces.

[OKwx2k4]

Looks touchy on models through at least day ten. Hope that storm in Feb produces.

Me too. Running out of chances here.

[hlcater]

GFS takes 993 mb low at the beginning of February from roughly KC to STL to DTW. Still no stock in this system.

[gosaints]

Looks touchy on models through at least day ten. Hope that storm in Feb produces.

Not even the biggest midwest snow weenie could attempt to spin the pattern the last 2 weeks and the upcoming 10 days into anything exciting

[gosaints]

Not even the biggest midwest snow weenie could attempt to spin the pattern the last 2 weeks and the upcoming 10 days into anything exciting

Things will get better if the PNA ridge relaxes...... i hope

[Tom]

GEFS/EPS all supporting a neutral PNA to right at month's end.  Should be a better overall pattern to spin up storms in our sub-forum as Feb opens up.

[gosaints]

could see a few decent bowling balls rocket across the country at least

[Geos]

That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,

 

They have the ocean and Gulf Stream right there, I wouldn't doubt widespread 2' amounts.

[james1976]

My God....storm parade on GFS to open Feb. Too bad its long term models.

[Geos]

12z GFS has some real nice storms on it.

 

----

 

Can see the SSW event showing up on the GEFS.

 

 

Actually the PV is well displaced by day 5.

 

 

 

[GDR]

My God....storm parade on GFS to open Feb. Too bad its long term models.

wouldn't put much stock in long term models

[Tony]

At least me might have a refresher snow on Monday..better than zippo at this point.

[Tom]

At least me might have a refresher snow on Monday..better than zippo at this point.

GFS/GGEM show more rain than snow around here...I think the this system will cut just NW of Chicago or right over.  Going to be close for us.

[Maxim]

That storm in Virginia & Maryland Not going to happen modals are over doing it. This has happened before where the modals had this same type of storm only to have it be light accumulation when the storm had passed,

lol

[Geos]

GFS/GGEM show more rain than snow around here...I think the this system will cut just NW of Chicago or right over.  Going to be close for us.

 

All depends on how big of a trough is left in the wake of the East Coast bomb.

 

If it swings up a bit, then a bigger trough will be carved out and more than likely the Tuesday system will stay south of I-80.

[Tom]

Down sloping winds are going to torch the Plains later next week.  Looks like a snow pack killer on the way. 

[Tom]

12z Euro carving out a monster trough Day 10 in the west/southwest part of the U.S.  Going to be an interesting storm to track as the PNA/AO/EPO all head towards neutral during this period.  Those are prime teleconnection signals for a bowling ball type of storm.

 

This storm fits the Dec 12th/13th storm in the LRC cycle #2.

[winterfreak]

Looks pretty torchy around here next week. Hope it diminishes as the pattern gets active again.

[james1976]

wouldn't put much stock in long term models

No crap...maybe thats why I said "too bad its long term models"

[Tom]

Interestingly enough, there is a lot of agreement among the GEFS/EPS members for the Day 10-12 system.  Looks like both models are seeing a storm or two ejecting out somewhere near KS/NE and track ENE towards the Lakes somewhere.  A lot of moisture being painted between both models.

[hlcater]

GFS has p-type issues on 10-12 storm now. Nino just has to work its way into every strong storm doesnt it.

[Iowa2015]

Long Range modals give us Cold rain temp 33-36 range followed by Cold air as the P-type departs till hr 384 when temps will be in mid to upper teens