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Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

Geos

By Geos
in East of the Rockies

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CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

More photos.

Tom
Tom

Are you being serious???  Who cares where the storm is tracking 7-10 days out.  The fact that the model is producing a storm consistently is THE only fact you should be looking at.   Track is only imp

Tom
Tom

Both GGEM/EURO ensembles seeing a southern Plains storm tracking near the Texarkana region and tracking NE up towards the OV/Lakes region.  Models are coming into a pretty good agreement of a phased s

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Niko Veteran

Niko

Posted
Posted

East coast looks like potentially getting pounded with storm after storm. Next week after the big one this upcoming weekend, more snowstorms to follow. Now, that's sweet.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Huge fight going on in the Day 5-15 range between the Euro/GFS/GGEM at 500mb...interestingly, the GFS op runs don't have the AO/NAO stay positive but the Euro does after the 22nd.  I've seen the GFS win this battle before, but will the Euro score a coupe this time???

 

Tonight's Euro Weeklies try to relax the PNA towards the end of the month and so does GEFS.  The part of the LRC which brought storms into the Southwest will start to show during the last week of the month.  I think during this last week of January is when the central CONUS may turn stormy.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Dr. Judah Cohen made some interesting comments in his AO Blog today.  Here was one of the main highlights:

 

 

 

  • The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the NH for the duration of winter.  The expected SSW should favor for much of February and even into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents.  With the models predicting the PV to move into northern Eurasia we are most confident of the cold close in proximity with the position of the PV.  More uncertainty exists across North America as the flow around the PV continues to shift from westerly (warm) to northerly (cold) and now easterly.

 

During next weeks SSW event, I think during this period we may find some interesting weather around the Plains/Midwest/Lakes region as the pattern along the EC relaxes away from the troughiness.  Once we roll into February, based on what Dr. Cohen has been stating, the AO should flip back negative and stay that way for a long period.  The Euro may be having trouble figuring out what to do with the AO in part of what is happening in the stratosphere.  What happens over the next 10 days will be critical to see if Winter holds on through Feb and into March.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
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you should really be talking to the pacific....

anything is better than what weve had so far and atm a negative NAO/AO seems the most likely to materialize out of all the cold patterns 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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anything is better than what weve had so far and atm a negative NAO/AO seems the most likely to materialize out of all the cold patterns 

As long as the AO/NAO don't stay positive when the "wet" part of the LRC returns later this month and into Feb, I think it will be favorable for wintry storms.  The jet also tends to "loose" its energy as we head into Feb (although this year it may not relax till late in Feb due to its strong state this year) which should benefit better phasing.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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It's a little more than a week out, but the 00z GFS might be sniffing out on a strong storm that forms in the deep south in TX that tracks through the Texarkana region.  This storm fits the 30-day cycle when Blizzard warnings were issued in NM/TX/OK back on Dec 26th/27th.

 

@ OKC, this may be your storm finally as it would correlate quite well with what happened in late December when there wasn't much cold air around.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Actually, just looked back at my notes and this would fit the LRC cycle as well.  Way back in Oct 19th-22nd during LRC cycle #1, there was a cut-off low in the 4 corners region that ejected out into the Plains that had tons of GOM influence.  This was the beginning of the very "wet" pattern that started in late October.

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OKwx2k4 Mentor

OKwx2k4

Posted
Posted

It's a little more than a week out, but the 00z GFS might be sniffing out on a strong storm that forms in the deep south in TX that tracks through the Texarkana region. This storm fits the 30-day cycle when Blizzard warnings were issued in NM/TX/OK back on Dec 26th/27th.

 

@ OKC, this may be your storm finally as it would correlate quite well with what happened in late December when there wasn't much cold air around.

Man, I'm hoping. I'd be happy with just my average snow this winter.

 

As you mentioned above also, this storm has cycled 3 times at this point. All with negative/neutral PNA or no AO help. +PNA would fit that setup also.

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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Posted

How can you have a 30 day cycle and a 50 day cycle and proclaim both to fit the pattern? By the very time definition they would contradict each other. I'm a skeptic of the LRC. I just haven't seen enough evidence of it actually panning out. I think it is intriguing but I have tested it out on numerous occasions and it just doesn't seem to be reliable. The weather is simply too variable. Even if a handful of atmospheric conditions cycle, there are so many other ones that don't or just change. I'll keep paying attention to it and maybe I'll be proven wrong but as of now I don't buy either the 30 day cycle or LRC to be reliable methods.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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Posted

How can you have a 30 day cycle and a 50 day cycle and proclaim both to fit the pattern? By the very time definition they would contradict each other. I'm a skeptic of the LRC. I just haven't seen enough evidence of it actually panning out. I think it is intriguing but I have tested it out on numerous occasions and it just doesn't seem to be reliable. The weather is simply too variable. Even if a handful of atmospheric conditions cycle, there are so many other ones that don't or just change. I'll keep paying attention to it and maybe I'll be proven wrong but as of now I don't buy either the 30 day cycle or LRC to be reliable methods.

There are.waves moving across the country almost daily this year. It could fit any cycle.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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How can you have a 30 day cycle and a 50 day cycle and proclaim both to fit the pattern? By the very time definition they would contradict each other. I'm a skeptic of the LRC. I just haven't seen enough evidence of it actually panning out. I think it is intriguing but I have tested it out on numerous occasions and it just doesn't seem to be reliable. The weather is simply too variable. Even if a handful of atmospheric conditions cycle, there are so many other ones that don't or just change. I'll keep paying attention to it and maybe I'll be proven wrong but as of now I don't buy either the 30 day cycle or LRC to be reliable methods.

Earlier in this discussion I commented about this.  You can go look back and check it out.  The basic theory works in both cycles, however, as you move along deeper into Winter the jet strengthens and features within the LRC cycle have to be adjusted by your own "touch" taking into account blocking etc.  I only found out about the 30-day cycle this year.  When the larger storm systems began developing in late Oct I made a conscious approach and wrote down the dates of each "larger" scale system.  Within the LRC, there are larger and smaller storm systems that overlap in the 30-day cycle almost to the exact date!  It's amazing to see and I believe it ain't no coincidence.  Try it out and look for yourself.  This is just my own research I found in understanding both cycles simultaneously and I'm learning more about them.  Next year I'll have to test this theory out again.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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The only good thing about that EC storm is that this side of the lake could see several hours of LES. Models have been showing this the past few days. It probably won't amount to much but at least flakes will be flying.

Curious to see how much, if any, can accumulate.  It certainly will be cold enough and the fetch down the lake should be as good as you could ask for.

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