Winter Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

[bud2380]

12z runs came in weaker for Sunday. We'll see what tonight shows

[Iowa2015]

Figures Hopefully a fluke like to see one decent Snow event these clippers half to one inches event  not  exciting .

[Geos]

MJO looks to enter the warm phases and scoot through them quickly.

 

[Tom]

MJO looks to enter the warm phases and scoot through them quickly.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_small.gif

Euro doesn't agree with the state of the MJO...not as amplified..

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

Looks like the Euro keeps it active and cooler near the Lakes through about next Thursday before the big ridge builds in.  Looks to be very transient and lasts about 3 days.  Parts of the plains torch into the 70's late next week!

 

By the 21st/22nd, the NE PAC ridge blossoms and the ensembles are picking up on the LRC's cold phase which was about 2-3 weeks long.

 

Latest JMA Weeklies show the state of the AO trend positive Week 1, but then flips negative Week 2-4 and an active STJ in play.  Pretty much lining up with Dr. Cohen's thinking and the LRC.  The NW NAMER ridge really locks in Week 2 with above normal precip in the central/eastern CONUS.

[gosaints]

I hope Dr. Cohen wild end comes through otherwise he is going down in flames.  Has been anything but wild

[Tom]

I hope Dr. Cohen wild end comes through otherwise he is going down in flames.  Has been anything but wild

I think the guy knows what he's talking about.  Plus, it fits the pattern that has evolved since January and we know what the LRC has in store.

[gosaints]

I think the guy knows what he's talking about.  Plus, it fits the pattern that has evolved since January and we know what the LRC has in store.

I know what he has been talking about.  He has been saying its coming for 60 days

[Tom]

I know what he has been talking about.  He has been saying its coming for 60 days

It has been pretty darn accurate from a long range forecasting perspective.  He predicted the status of the stratosphere months ago that has evolved since mid January.  You wouldn't agree??

[gosaints]

It has been pretty darn accurate from a long range forecasting perspective.  He predicted the status of the stratosphere months ago that has evolved since mid January.  You wouldn't agree??

He looked at forecasts and used them to predicts stratospheric warming which anyone can do.  His vortex was to strong... 

 

The WILD stratosphere has not made for much of a wild troposphere or any so called wild patterns...

[Tom]

He looked at forecasts and used them to predicts stratospheric warming which anyone can do.  His vortex was to strong... 

 

The WILD stratosphere has not made for much of a wild troposphere or any so called wild patterns...

BTW, Dr. Cohen's SAI Theory accurately predicted what is currently going on with the Stratosphere and the models he shows are just a reminder that his predictions way back in early November are transpiring.  Don't forget that.  

 

The near record strong PV reaching its peak in late Dec and late Jan has had one of the most remarkable "flips" in decades.  You don't think that's wild???  Also, what happens in the strat eventually makes it down into the troposphere withing a 10-14 day lag period.  In January, we were above normal during the first week but then the arctic attack came and hit hard after what was a record December.  You don't say that is Wild??? I guess not.

 

The magnitude of the transition we are seeing now is fascinating and air temps cool off once again as we close out Feb.  More than likely produce more significant storm systems (prob a couple more Blizzards across the nation).

 

Check out both the 10mb/30mb changes...not wild???  Troposphere response will happen later this month....as it did in January after the late Dec spike (minimal).

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_nh.gif

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u10_nh.gif

[gosaints]

Sorry is a warming stratosphere doesnt present itself as wild to me.  PV split?

[Tom]

Sorry is a warming stratosphere doesnt present itself as wild to me.  PV split?

Oh boy, it eventually leads to a cooling troposphere...anyway, PV did split, albeit minimally, but from where it has gone from...I'd say that is pretty remarkable.

[gosaints]

Oh boy, it eventually leads to a cooling troposphere...anyway, PV did split, albeit minimally, but from where it has gone from...I'd say that is pretty remarkable.

Sorry.  You are right again wild and active we have been...   

 

I am feel fortunate to have the snowfall that I have.  Its been good to be north of I80 in the end....  Supression has yet to be a problem in any system of substance

[Grizzcoat]

GFS has nice snow event for IA,NE and Kansas day 8-9-- winter iis FAR from over. I can't wait to see the look on peoples faces after three 50F days-- and all the snow is gone-- that another snow event is coming!!! HA-- move south!!!--

[Jaycee]

GFS has nice snow event for IA,NE and Kansas day 8-9-- winter iis FAR from over. I can't wait to see the look on peoples faces after three 50F days-- and all the snow is gone-- that another snow event is coming!!! HA-- move south!!!--USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_225.gif

 

 

Nooooooo. I'm sitting at 65 and 63 for Thursday and Friday. No mas por favor I want our crappy brown grass and half snow to be gone.

[Tom]

Last couple GFS runs showing a similar storm track set up that lead up to the Jan 22-24th EC Blizzard.  Track this far out not a concern but a big storm may be on the horizon.  Lines up with the LRC though and 30-day cycle.  Euro/GFS not in agreement...not surprised.

[gosaints]

Coming up on the best part of winter around here.  Always a chance at a blockbuster followed by plenty of melting

[hlcater]

Blockbuster on the EC or a blockbuster around here? I do know that the GFS has been showing a system in the 8-10 day range for a few runs now.

[gosaints]

Snow pack destruction imminent this week...

 

GFS above normal 72-200

[westMJim]

In the weather department we are now half way through February and according to the ground hog spring is right around the corner. (not sure how long the block is) anyway for all of the cold and snow lovers just think of this winter as something that happens now and then. Sort of like the summers of 2009 and 2014. I still feel that there is a chance of a big winter storm yet to come it could be either snow or freezing rain but we are not out of the woods until the middle of April. Yes April! (well here in Michigan anyway)

[westMJim]

Now for all of the warm weather lovers. While I still don’t buy into this yet (we are now due for a few below average months temp wise) but more and more of the long range guesses are guessing that this upcoming summer could be on the warmer then average side in our area. Now after the past two cool summers I can see where this summer could be warmer then they were I am not sure if it will be that much warmer then the long term average. We shall see on that one.

[CentralNebWeather]

Long term looks poor for snow.  Even the great Jim Flowers is sounding more pessimistic of snow.  He keeps saying that his boat will be in the water by March 5th.  We will see.  I am afraid after this week of much above normal temps, are blizzard snow will be a distant memory with only big piles and drifts left.  I keep saying, I was expecting more from this winter, even rain and ice wise.  Well the potential la nina for next year might be interesting.

[gosaints]

snow pack destruction should be solid tomorrow through friday night.  Lows near 40 tomorrow night with strong winds.  Pattern going forward looks relatively awful for snow.  Could always thread a needle i suppose.  Hope for a big boy in march here.  Gonna be a depressing pattern for the lakes it looks like

[Snowshoe]

 relatively awful for snow. 

 

Relatively? There's no relatively about it. There's not even a hint of a GFS fantasy land storm to drool over.   

 

Pitchers and catchers report Friday!

[Tom]

Relatively? There's no relatively about it. There's not even a hint of a GFS fantasy land storm to drool over.   

 

Pitchers and catchers report Friday!

My plan is to check out a Cub's Spring training game when I'm out there.  Go Cub's Go!

[westMJim]

.  Gonna be a depressing pattern for the lakes it looks like

With a seasonal snow fall total so far of only 30.0" I am now rooting for GRR it set a top (or bottom) ten record for seasonal snow fall. At least that would get this year in the record books

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, after the nice late week/weekend mild temps, we should go into a pretty blah period.  Models currently have us sitting under the west side of the eastern trough.  With no snowcover left it should just be near avg temps with nothing of any interest, storm/precipwise.  At least we'll have a decent eastern storm to follow.

[NEJeremy]

For what was supposed to be an active pattern with lots of bowling balls to track this winter, I can only think of 2 storms that we've tracked here in eastern Nebraska. The first storm that eventually missed us to the east, and then the Groundhog Day storm. We've somehow made it to a normal season snowfall, but really it's been a pretty blah winter again. My parents though live up in Yankton South Dakota, and they have had 50" of snow already this winter! I'm definitely ready for spring and this weeks temps in the 60s are only going to make the itch stronger, but of course am hoping for at least one more big one. Looks like it won't be here in February though.

[gosaints]

For what was supposed to be an active pattern with lots of bowling balls to track this winter, I can only think of 2 storms that we've tracked here in eastern Nebraska. The first storm that eventually missed us to the east, and then the Groundhog Day storm. We've somehow made it to a normal season snowfall, but really it's been a pretty blah winter again. My parents though live up in Yankton South Dakota, and they have had 50" of snow already this winter! I'm definitely ready for spring and this weeks temps in the 60s are only going to make the itch stronger, but of course am hoping for at least one more big one. Looks like it won't be here in February though.

There really were not alot of true mets predicting active patterns of true winter systems.  Sure there were some winter hype machines doing it and people on message boards but that is about it.

[CentralNebWeather]

might as well get the mower serviced and see if I mow the yard in March.  It is typically middle April but this year might be one of those early years.  Mets around here are not really mentioning anything for the next several weeks (if anything) and by then we are into March.  

[gosaints]

+PNA reloading.  everyone might as well take a nap.  I remeber when some were excited about the +PNA earlier in the season.....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160218/12Z/f384/accqpfconus.png

[Geos]

GFS showing a Arctic outbreak to close out February.

 

 

[gosaints]

GFS showing a Arctic outbreak to close out February.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021812/gfs_T2m_ncus_41.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021812/gfs_T850_namer_42.png

No snowpack.  Gets me to about 10 degrees below normal nighttime lows.... Epic...  Ensembles normal to slightly above

[Geos]

No snowpack.  Gets me to about 10 degrees below normal nighttime lows.... Epic...  Ensembles normal to slightly above

 

Probably the result of the polar vortex collapses earlier in the month.

 

30s all the way into FL on March 2nd. Trying to think if I've ever seen that so late in the season.

 

[gosaints]

Probably the result of the polar vortex collapses earlier in the month.

 

30s all the way into FL on March 2nd. Trying to think if I've ever seen that so late in the season.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016021812/gfs_T2m_us_49.png

My point is it isnt even that cold at the surface around here.  Plus we are looking at maps of the operational GFS at hour 336 which has been horrendous anywhere past 180.  Ensembles dont show much support for anything that drastic and the EURO is in another ballpark

[Geos]

My point is it isnt even that cold at the surface around here.  Plus we are looking at maps of the operational GFS at hour 336 which has been horrendous anywhere past 180.  Ensembles dont show much support for anything that drastic and the EURO is in another ballpark

 

The euro always seems to be in another ballpack these days! 

Yeah I know it's too far away to accurate predict how the month will close out, but it wouldn't be surprising getting one more Arctic outbreak.

[gosaints]

The euro always seems to be in another ballpack these days! 

Yeah I know it's too far away to accurate predict how the month will close out, but it wouldn't be surprising getting one more Arctic outbreak.

Wouldnt doub it, but i doubt it has the staying power the GFS predicts.  I can handle an artic outbreak like the GFS predicts without snowcover it wont do much.  Average low in 10 days is still right around 13 here

[Sleather]

Going to drain the gas out of the snowblower this weekend. Didn't use it once. Hardly even shoveled.

[Geos]

Going to drain the gas out of the snowblower this weekend. Didn't use it once. Hardly even shoveled.

 

You didn't even use it in November?

I don't even own a snowblower, but could have used one a couple times.

I know after the sleet storm, snowblowers were useless at throwing that low ratio stuff.

[Sleather]

You didn't even use it in November?

I don't even own a snowblower, but could have used one a couple times.

I know after the sleet storm, snowblowers were useless at throwing that low ratio stuff.

Not even in November. Our snows have been few and far between with maximum amounts per snowfall around 2-3 inches. This last Valentines event was our biggest event of the year. We might have gotten 3". My snowbunny kids are bummed.