GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[gosaints]

Euro digs pretty hard at 24. Guessing we will observe the same weakening by 48

[Snowlover76]

D**n, thats south if I'm not mistaken 

[Money]

D**n, thats south if I'm not mistaken

Where's my $25

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160201/00Z/f048/sfcmslpconus.png

[Snowlover76]

Where's my $25

storm never happened yet 

[jcwxguy]

looking better for lincoln on euro, even vs the 12z run

[clintbeed1993]

00z EURO

[Geos]

12z EURO had the low near the tri state area of IA, MO, and IL. That digging way back into TX though is like the UKMET - almost. It's about 250 miles south of the cluster of tracks near the OK panhandle at hour 24.

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160201/00Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is colder for DSM area-- and I assume most others-- not by much-- but every little bit is huge.

[jcwxguy]

awesome

[jcwxguy]

one line for lnk

 

TUE 18Z 02-FEB -0.6 -5.5 998 94 77 0.70 531 532 

 

based off surface temps, ratio's would start off low then get higher 

 

missing a chunk of data still, waiting for it to fill in before i post the numbers 

[Scott26]

Euro is colder for DSM area-- and I assume most others-- not by much-- but every little bit is huge.

Also a bit more QPF then the 12Z Euro run. Looks like the low pressure may have been slightly farther to the south which didn't have the dry slot surge as far north this time. Eastern Nebraska into Western Iowa will be the jackpot area, but Central Iowa is looking pretty good.

[Money]

Wisconsin view?

[Snowlover76]

I still think the GFS will be right in this one.  

[Grizzcoat]

old 12z euro

 

o

[gosaints]

At this point I would say euro is probably.best case scenario around here. Unfortunately it has not been much of a king lately

[jcwxguy]

Wisconsin view?

[Snowlover76]

Im still going with the GFS for this one 

[jcwxguy]

still awaiting data for

 

 

MON 18Z 01-FEB
TUE 00Z 02-FEB
TUE 06Z 02-FEB
TUE 12Z 02-FEB

 

if its still not updated 5 minutes, ill have to head to bed, i have to wake up in 6 hours to go to work

[gosaints]

Im still going with the GFS for this one

Jesus you are gonna drive yourself nuts.

[Snowlover76]

Jesus you are gonna drive yourself nuts.

The GFS has performed better than the Euro this winter. 

[jcwxguy]

00z gefs 

[gosaints]

The GFS has performed better than the Euro this winter.

Thats fine and dandy but the gfs shows a foot plus how.many miles from you?

[Grizzcoat]

IMO-- storm has been sampled by the big guns (GFS/EURO etc)-- now it comes down to short range models to see the delicate waffles that it will take-- we all know the snow maps at the end of the day do not look much like what the models said--  this is the best time imo--  time to enjoy and just let nature happen

[jcwxguy]

still awaiting data for

 

 

MON 18Z 01-FEB

TUE 00Z 02-FEB

TUE 06Z 02-FEB

TUE 12Z 02-FEB

 

if its still not updated 5 minutes, ill have to head to bed, i have to wake up in 6 hours to go to work

still not updated, goodnight everyone

[gosaints]

IMO-- storm has been sampled by the big guns (GFS/EURO etc)-- now it comes down to short range models to see the delicate waffles that it will take-- we all know the snow maps at the end of the day do not look much like what the models said-- this is the best time imo-- time to enjoy and just let nature happen

Amen

[East Dubzz]

Why do so many of you get riled up on what another's person opinion is? You guys take everyone else's take on the situation way too personally. It's not like we're meterologist here.

[Grizzcoat]

Why do so many of you get riled up on what another's person opinion is? You guys take everyone else's take on the situation way too personally. It's not like we're meterologist here.

Not naming names-- but some actually are.

[Geos]

My calls that I'm riding now.

 

I would toss the UKMET for sure, and the EURO track just does not make sense, so I have to toss that one personally given the huge bust on 12/28. GFS could happen (but with less WAA), but I would side with the CMC right now. It's not as extreme as the NAM in terms of track, but it's pretty much in the middle ground. Front end thump of snow here with some sleet and freezing rain for a short time. Some rain before the dry slot works in - not a total waste.

[gosaints]

Why do so many of you get riled up on what another's person opinion is? You guys take everyone else's take on the situation way too personally. It's not like we're meterologist here.

I agree with you I just want him to understand that his odds are in his favor and that he.should enjoy the onslaught he.most likely has coming

[Grizzcoat]

jcwx went to bed-- I will try and post what I can for certain locations

[Money]

Gefs snowfall maps look pretty south

[Grizzcoat]

took about till 12:40 for the entire storm to be shown on Euro Accu WX raw data for airport id's this am. Plan on posting OMA,DSM,LNK,CID,OSH,VTI,ALO   any other requests?

[Geos]

Gefs snowfall maps look pretty south

 

Maybe some of the ensembles are starting to catch onto the idea of dynamic cooling/convection pulling on the low.

[gosaints]

RST

[East Dubzz]

I agree with you I just want him to understand that his odds are in his favor and that he.should enjoy the onslaught he.most likely has coming

I understand, and don't think I was trying to point you out. I just think it's incredible the amount of people on here who get so caught up in what some random posters think. It should mean nothing, you know. Just enjoy tracking the weather. If you disagree with someone, point out what you think is wrong in a reasonable manner, but if you start to get annoyed, just ignore them and move on. That's just the problem I have.

[Geos]

There's our storm. 994 mb over Vegas.

 

[gosaints]

I understand, and don't think I was trying to point you out. I just think it's incredible the amount of people on here who get so caught up in what some random posters think. It should mean nothing, you know. Just enjoy tracking the weather. If you disagree with someone, point out what you think is wrong in a reasonable manner, but if you start to get annoyed, just ignore them and move on. That's just the problem I have.

Ya in reality I dont think any reasobable met would say with any certainty whether or not the gfs is right for lincoln.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM- actually just W of DSM

TUE 06Z 02-FEB   1.5    -3.6    1016      87     100    0.03     551     538    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.4    -4.1    1008      86      99    0.26     547     541    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.5    -3.4    1000      94      33    0.57     538     537    WED 00Z 03-FEB   0.1    -1.7     999      95      73    0.12     531     532    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -2.6    -8.1    1008      86      81    0.07     533     526  

OMA-

MON 18Z 01-FEB   4.2    -2.0    1018      59      63    0.01     551     536    TUE 00Z 02-FEB   3.1    -2.9    1015      73      88    0.02     550     538    TUE 06Z 02-FEB   1.2    -4.3    1015      93      98    0.05     549     537    TUE 12Z 02-FEB   0.4    -4.4    1004      89     100    0.26     543     540    TUE 18Z 02-FEB   0.1    -4.9     999      92      64    0.64     533     533    WED 00Z 03-FEB  -1.4    -7.1    1003      90      92    0.26     531     528    WED 06Z 03-FEB  -3.6    -9.3    1014      84      90    0.04     535     524

rest in 10 mins