January 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Don't like how the cold next weekend and even outflow that was shown earlier has just vanished into a wishy-washy gross pattern as we get closer.     Something tells me this long range stuff will continue to go through a vanishing stage when it gets around 144-168 hours out.  

 

I'm sure you will find another foothills resident that agrees with this wholeheartedly.

 

Which is great for you. Misery loves company!

 

I think there is still potential down the road, though.

[westcoastexpat]

 

This has to be one of the most God-awful forecasts I've ever seen. 

[Jesse]

http://i.imgur.com/0nB1WFa.png

 

This has to be one of the most God-awful forecasts I've ever seen. 

 

Great post!

[TT-SEA]

I'm sure you will find another foothills resident that agrees with this wholeheartedly.

 

Which is great for you. Misery loves company!

 

I think there is still potential down the road, though.

 

 

Deal in reality Jesse.     Nature does not give a crap about being happy and positive for the sake of being happy and positive.     Next weekend went from looking to pretty good to looking pretty gross once we crossed inside the resolution.    

 

February will likely end up below normal... but that does not mean it will be memorable.     I just wish it would be wet.

 

That being said... this is hands-down my favorite winter here.     The number of dry days and sunshine here have been astounding.

[Guest Monty67]

I'm sure you will find another foothills resident that agrees with this wholeheartedly.

 

Which is great for you. Misery loves company!

 

I think there is still potential down the road, though.

I think the second full week of February will be our chance at something decent.

[TT-SEA]

I think the second full week of February will be our chance at something decent.

I agree... that is the week if anything will happen.

[weather girl]

There was an August getaways. But that short period was pretty much the entire summer that year.

 

I mean... how can you tell its summer without at least a 2-week period of hot weather?? Seasons! Just like its nice to know its winter with a period of arctic air and snow.

 

The summer of 1977 was barely decent outside of that 2-week hot spell.

I am not a fan of hot summers. Sue me. :-) But clearly, I was remembering the records incorrectly. Long live the ridge.

[Jesse]

Deal in reality Jesse.     Nature does not give a crap about being happy and positive for the sake of being happy and positive.     Next weekend went from looking to pretty good to looking pretty gross once we crossed inside the resolution.    

 

February will likely end up below normal... but that does not mean it will be memorable.     I just wish it would be wet.

 

That being said... this is hands-down my favorite winter here.     The number of dry days and sunshine here have been astounding.

 

How exactly is acknowledging that we still may have a shot down the road not dealing in reality? I have never understood the belief held by a few here that blind pessimism is somehow firmly rooted in reality while cautious optimism is not.

 

I just said a few posts ago this may not happen at all. Don't see how you can get any more "real" than that. I figured a comment of that nature would please the dual foothill gods of pessimism and get me off their list, but I guess it wasn't enough.

[Jesse]

I agree... that is the week if anything will happen.

 

Deal in reality, Tim. Acknowledging that anything good might happen, ever, is clearly delusional wishcasting.

[Jesse]

I am not a fan of hot summers. Sue me. :-) But clearly, I was remembering the records incorrectly. Long live the ridge.

 

He would if he could.

[TT-SEA]

He would if he could.

I point out good all the time. This winter has been almost all good at my location.

 

I just cringe at the thought that we can only say positive things about the future. As if that is how it actually works here! Being honest means talking about how it might not turn cold and snowy. How it could go differently.  That is how reality works most of the time.

[westcoastexpat]

I appreciate your realism, Tim. I don't think you have been exaggerating nor do I think you have been dishonest. Perhaps a bit dramatic, but that's simply your personality.

 

I for one am really glad that you've had a really gorgeous winter thus far!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly the models don't mean much right now. Tim is right, next weekend was looking decent. Now it just looks somewhat coolish, with nothing interesting whatsoever.

[TT-SEA]

It just seems so dishonest to only talk about good signs... like ensembles and long-range model solutions.   We were being scolded for talking about the bad signs for early January... how did that go despite so many good signs?    What are the bad signs right now?    Like next weekend now looking pretty crappy after originally look pretty good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It just seems so dishonest to only talk about good signs... like ensembles and long-range model solutions.   We were being scolded for talking about the bad signs for early January... how did that go despite so many good signs?    What are the bad signs right now?    Like next weekend now looking pretty crappy after originally look pretty good.

 

Well the difference between February and January is that January legitimately had NO good signs. People who thought it did were dreaming. There are some decent signs for February. The problem is that it is February, a month that has completely sucked 95% of the time over the past 18 years.

[Jesse]

Well the difference between February and January is that January legitimately had NO good signs. People who thought it did were dreaming. There are some decent signs for February. The problem is that it is February, a month that has completely sucked 95% of the time over the past 18 years.

 

CFS?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS?

 

Heck yeah.

[Jesse]

12Z ensembles are decent. I hope no one is offended by the fact that I'm choosing to post about a good sign. I apologize in advance.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z ensembles are decent. I hope no one is offended by the fact that I'm choosing to post about a good sign. I apologize in advance.

 

I'm not offended. They offer some hope to those of us who live in snow prone locations. Valley floor locations, eh...maybe a marginal event could break out.

[Phil]

February will likely end up below normal... but that does not mean it will be memorable. I just wish it would be wet.

 

Uh, who hacked Tim's account??

[van city]

Any thoughts on the 12 Z Canadian?

[TT-SEA]

12Z ensembles are decent. I hope no one is offended by the fact that I'm choosing to post about a good sign. I apologize in advance.

 

Be nice if you mix it up once in awhile... and post about some bad signs as well.    They do exist and to understand nature we need to recognize and talk about both!

 

Only talking about positive signs... and ridiculing anyone who posts something you and Jim deem 'negative' does a disservice to all of us. 

 

That is the only way Jim wants this forum to work.   Only cheering and positive news from July though March and then disappear from April - June.     All for what usually ends up being one week of cold and snow each winter anyways.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One thing I don't understand how mentioning that it has been very springlike this week is a negative or bad thing. I love cold weather, but this week has admittedly been glorious.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One thing I don't understand how mentioning that it has been very springlike this week is a negative or bad thing. I love cold weather, but this week has admittedly been glorious.

 

Much better than torching with SW flow. 

[TT-SEA]

One thing I don't understand how mentioning that it has been very springlike this week is a negative or bad thing. I love cold weather, but this week has admittedly been glorious.

 

 

Have you not heard???   It was wicked cold in Stevenson.    Therefore it was not spring-like and in the 60s at my location.

[Jesse]

Posting here is quickly beginning to lose its lure....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Have you not heard???   It was wicked cold in Stevenson.    Therefore it was not spring-like and in the 60s at my location.

 

Haven't you heard? The bird is the word!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Posting here is quickly beginning to lose its lure....

 

I hope you don't stop. Things have just broken down a bit because the weather has been as boring as the Lawrence Welk show.

[snow_wizard]

Normally I get very worried when the models put off cold weather, but the fact the ECMWF and GFS both deliver after the failed first attempt is somewhat reassuring. The ECMWF ensemble was the first model to pick up on this. Now the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian all show the minor cold snap later this week followed by brief moderation and then a second better setup toward day 10.

 

More than anything history is kind of on our side when talking about a major January death ridge in a neutral or cold ENSO winter. Usually it evens out by the time its over. Given the extreme nature of the pattern we are in an opposite extreme should be coming.

 

I'm just thankful my area has gotten through this torch at the 850mb level with mostly below normal temps thanks to cold nights and some foggy cold days.

[snow_wizard]

I hope you don't stop. Things have just broken down a bit because the weather has been as boring as the Lawrence Welk show.

My grandparents loved that show.

 

At any rate Jesse has a great point. Those of us who have decided to remain optimistic have had huge problems coming on here and seeing nothing but doom and gloom posts all of the time. It has been more depressing than the weather in fact.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point all the sub-freezing nights in the world don't mean that much to me. I also had 119 sub-freezing nights in 2011-2012 and 98" of snow to go with it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My grandparents loved that show.

 

At any rate Jesse has a great point. Those of us who have decided to remain optimistic have had huge problems coming on here and seeing nothing but doom and gloom posts all of the time. It has been more depressing than the weather in fact.

 

I am glad the models are showing a good opportunity for something decent. However, after the past month and a half I am remaining skeptical. But at least they aren't showing an endless 850mb torch like they were 2 weeks ago.

[TT-SEA]

Normally I get very worried when the models put off cold weather, but the fact the ECMWF and GFS both deliver after the failed first attempt is somewhat reassuring. The ECMWF ensemble was the first model to pick up on this. Now the ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian all show the minor cold snap later this week followed by brief moderation and then a second better setup toward day 10.

 

More than anything history is kind of on our side when talking about a major January death ridge in a neutral or cold ENSO winter. Usually it evens out by the time its over. Given the extreme nature of the pattern we are in an opposite extreme should be coming.

 

I'm just thankful my area has gotten through this torch at the 850mb level with mostly below normal temps thanks to cold nights and some foggy cold days.

 

 

How does that matter to anyone???    

 

Seriously... wouldn't you rather enjoy sun and warmer weather while waiting for cold and snow?    Better than soupy fog and damp cold.   That is just gross.

[snow_wizard]

I am glad the models are showing a good opportunity for something decent. However, after the past month and a half I am remaining skeptical. But at least they aren't showing an endless 850mb torch like they were 2 weeks ago.

No question there will be a huge pattern shift. The big question is the details.

[snow_wizard]

At this point all the sub-freezing nights in the world don't mean that much to me. I also had 119 sub-freezing nights in 2011-2012 and 98" of snow to go with it.

I have always loved frosty mornings.

[TT-SEA]

No question there will be a huge pattern shift. The big question is the details.

 

 

It does not even look like a major pattern shift unfortunately.

 

Looks like the cold remains parked to our east with just a slight shift west.   Also seems to be shifting north as we move out of the middle of winter.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014012612!!chart.gif

 

Even at 240 hours... its still not cold enough for lowland snow.   And it would probably be cloudy with this pattern resulting in warmer nights.

[snow_wizard]

SEA was 39 at 11am. A Siberian cold wave for them this month.

[snow_wizard]

It does not even look like a major pattern shift unfortunately.

 

Looks like the cold remains parked to our east with just a slight shift west.   Also seems to be shifting north as we move out of the middle of winter.

 

 

Even at 240 hours... its still not cold enough for lowland snow.   And it would probably be cloudy with this pattern resulting in warmer nights.

If you look at the surface pressure maps on day 10 it clearly shows an Arctic front has arrived at Bellingham. Strong northerly gradients. Also look at the evolution between day 9 and 10. No question that is poised for good things here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Basically we may go from dry mild weather to dry cool weather. Not really what we need. Not a major pattern shift. There is no real major pattern change through the end of the resolution. A little rain, a little mountain snow, but not a major pattern shake up.

[TT-SEA]

If you look at the surface pressure maps on day 10 it clearly shows an Arctic front has arrived at Bellingham. Strong northerly gradients. Also look at the evolution between day 9 and 10. No question that is poised for good things here.

 

 

But it won't end up that way.   Its 240 hours out and marginal even at face value now.     Really stretching.

 

There is some hope obviously.    

 

But an honest discussion would involve talking about all possibilities.    And my guess is that the trend is bad right now and that means it probably will not happen.   Cooler than normal and wetter seems likely though.