March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Money]

Gfs ensemble total precip has pretty much all of southern wi in the .75-1 qpf even with the south /weaker members

[Geos]

The freezing line timing on all model within range is between 4-7pm here. Slightly earlier in Milwaukee, slightly later in Chicago. The models agree that this frontogenesis band will be the first to impact the region around this time as well.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Gfs ensemble total precip has pretty much all of southern wi in the .75-1 qpf even with the south /weaker members

 

It doesn't hurt that the northern members are probably juicier with precip in general.

[Geos]

12z tracks.

 

[Money]

ARW is already sub 1002 at hr 48 in MO

[Geos]

EURO starts the low in western KS. 

[indianajohn]

nwi not in play on that last run

[Money]

Difference between today's 12z euro run and yesterday's is insane

[Geos]

Low jumps to northern TX as the freezing line drops through the rest of WI.

Healthy frontogenesis band from I-80 to extreme southern WI on this run. Low moving into southern MO at hour 48.

[Geos]

Not going to wrap up in time for IL or WI, but it's closer than it was.

 

[Geos]

Showing a nice band of 0.40-0.55" band of moisture through extreme eastern Iowa through N IL and into MI, before you hit the big backside snows.

Having temps in the 20s in N IL north of I-88 your probably looking at some totals at 7 or even 8".

 

[Geos]

Little bit shorter of a window, but the chance for lake enhancement exists for about 12 hours.

 

GEFS

 

 

GEPS

 

 

 

[indianajohn]

the way the models have been going we should have a grasp on this storm sometime Monday night Tuesday morning..LOL

[Geos]

the way the models have been going we should have a grasp on this storm sometime Monday night Tuesday morning..LOL

 

Looks like the low will be in British Columbia tonight. So the 6z runs should be the beginning of the sounding data input.

[Money]

I count 7/11 gfs ensembles that have a huge snowstorm for southern wi

[Geos]

These late winter system with a departing el Nino can be strong, so I wouldn't be surprised if more snow starting showing up on future runs. Sure this could turn out to be a dud, but climatologically speaking this is the time for big synoptic systems.

 

Quote from Meteorologist Purduewx80 of AMWX.

 

 

That shortwave was barely sampled at all - more importantly, the vort behind it is very poorly initialized by all guidance (too weak), including 12z coming in. That's telling me the backside jet is coming in stronger and will help this dig more, with the southern wave possibly trending faster and deeper in subsequent guidance. If correct, that suggests some of the negative tilt/beefed up runs from a few days ago may be closer to reality. Will be interesting to see 12z ensembles. 

 

[Geos]

There is our low in an hour or so.

 

[Money]

Based on the maps through 36 it looks like 18z nam will continue the stronger/north trend

[Geos]

Cold air is really under cutting south on this run. Mix to snow here. 

 

[Geos]

Low bumps down to the south as the NE flow strengthens.

 

 

[Money]

Went from 0.4 on 12z nam to over 6 on 18z and parts of Chicago went from 9-10 to 0

 

Insane model performances lately

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Went from 0.4 on 12z nam to over 6 on 18z and parts of Chicago went from 9-10 to 0

 

Insane model performances lately

 

This is definitely not a spread the wealth type of system (huge surprise, right) so big run to run changes are likely.

[Geos]

NAM needs to get more organized. Jumping that low north and then back south is goofy.

 

Fwiw:

[hlcater]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160228/18Z/f54/accfrzrmw.png

 

Ice, ewwwwwwww.

[hlcater]

The low is too far north and it looks like 850s stay above freezing thru tues. morning. at least for my area.

[Geos]

NAM tries to eject that low out too quick imo and that's why it attempts to go from KS to northern MO then back south. Something between the EURO and then other 12z runs is more likely at this point.

[Money]

NAM tries to eject that low out too quick imo and that's why it goes from KS to northern MO then back south. Something between the EURO and then other 12z runs is more likely at this point.

....

 

No comment

[Geos]

4km NAM

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

4km NAM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/namhires/20160228/18Z/f60/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

Micro-thin area of nice snows.

[Tom]

12z EPS...nice clustering...don't see this low tracking anywhere close to Chicago...good support among GEFS/EPS members...should be a good snow storm

 

Some big hits on the GEFS...

[gosaints]

....

 

No comment

Nobody should pretend they have any idea what will happen at this point.

[gosaints]

12z EPS...nice clustering...don't see this low tracking anywhere close to Chicago...good support among GEFS/EPS members...should be a good snow storm

 

Some big hits on the GEFS...

Famous last words

[Money]

The people who threw in the towel now coming back in here thinking they know what the storm is going to do is pretty funny

[Money]

Nobody should pretend they have any idea what will happen at this point.

Models are changing each run and the storm isn't sampled yet but there's no way it's tracking near chicago!

[Tom]

Models are changing each run and the storm isn't sampled yet but there's no way it's tracking near chicago!

No comment...you were really quite the last 2 days but yet I know you were looking at each run...now, since the storm is coming back you think you have a good handle on it???  Come on now...

[gosaints]

Models are changing each run and the storm isn't sampled yet but there's no way it's tracking near chicago!

My favorite part of this generally crappy winter is that plenty of people who thought they had an extraordinary ability to predict weather have had to realize they r novices like the rest of us...

[gosaints]

No comment...you were really quite the last 2 days but yet I know you were looking at each run...now, since the storm is coming back you think you have a good handle on it??? Come on now...

Did he say he had a handle on it? did he say he knows where it is going to track?

[Money]

No comment...you were really quite the last 2 days but yet I know you were looking at each run...now, since the storm is coming back you think you have a good handle on it??? Come on now...

Remember when this was going to be nothing but a frontal wave?

 

Good times

[Tom]

I'm out here relaxing and having fun soaking up sun...one of the big reasons I think Chicago will see a snow storm is that this storm took a similar track each LRC cycle.

[Tom]

Did he say he had a handle on it? did he say he knows where it is going to track?

yes he did...3 days ago he wanted to bet me it would track north of chicago...guess you missed that one...