March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Tony]

Pass and pass on the next one as that will fizzle out as well. Just the way this winter has gone for us.

[Geos]

I think the storm on its heels has more of a chance to develop into something bigger.

 

Yeah really...

 

 

The lake effect wildcard might be more significant than the synoptic snow itself. The parameters look really good on this side of the lake for awhile. 63-80 hours about.

 

Delta Ts get up to 18°C

[Geos]

I'm not even sure eurowx maps have the correct ratio algorithm. It's suggesting 10:1 here with temps in the mid 20s. 

[Geos]

I noticed the snow along the front on Monday evening. Breaks snow out near 43°N and then slides south and east. That could be interesting. Those frontogenesis bands can be fun/over perform as WAA tries to fight the incoming cold air.

[Tony]

Maybe the models will start to trend back towards a stronger solution with the next couple runs

[Sciascia]

Maybe the models will start to trend back towards a stronger solution with the next couple runs

It definitely won't be starting with the 18z NAM. Zippo in the general area.

[Geos]

NAM is a mess still. 

 

[Geos]

4km NAM shows the frontogenesis band though.

If we can get that and the low to come north soon enough, it might be a good event.

 

 

NAM does now show some snow in N IL, before it did not.

 

[Tom]

12z EPS not even worth posting...pretty craptastic run...this will probably end up being a strong frontal boundary with a weak SLP that rides up along it towards S IL/IN/OH.

[Geos]

12z EPS not even worth posting...pretty craptastic run...this will probably end up being a strong frontal boundary with a weak SLP that rides up along it towards S IL/IN/OH.

 

Right now I would side with an advisory event east of I-39. Detroit area on into Ontario might pull off something decent. 

This first wave, might grow legs and get stronger with time.

 

[gosaints]

Uffda

[Geos]

GFS is a mess this run. Some snow along the front as it settles south.

 

 

[indianajohn]

Geos you are holding out hope? 

[hlcater]

I don't see much coming out of this, models are getting worse and worse. Probably a turd on our hands like gosaints said a few days ago.

[Madtown]

It's another big dog...2""b" word. Your choice on the b word

[Geos]

Geos you are holding out hope? 

 

I'm holding onto the chance that this wave being created by the cold front moving down on Monday/Monday night will be robust enough for an advisory event at least.

 

If you're close to the lake I think your chances are good for higher totals.

 

It's another big dog...2""b" word. Your choice on the b word

 

Already changed the wording. About to make another change.

 

FWIW: the 6z and 18z runs don't ingest all the available data that the 12z and 0z runs contain. The system is way, way out in the Pacific still.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

It's another big dog...2""b" word. Your choice on the b word

 

'b' for 'bunch of hype!

[Niko]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_02272147_hd32.jpg

Cities at risk for enough snow to cause slick roads and disruptions to travel and daily routines in the Midwest include Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa; Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago; Grand Rapids and Detroit, Michigan; Toledo and Cleveland, Ohio; and London, Ontario.

 

Accu-weather on board!

 

Jaster220..are ya ready?! Here we go again.

[Geos]

Cities at risk for enough snow to cause slick roads and disruptions to travel and daily routines in the Midwest include Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa; Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago; Grand Rapids and Detroit, Michigan; Toledo and Cleveland, Ohio; and London, Ontario.

 

Accu-weather on board!

 

Jaster220..are ya ready?! Here we go again.

 

The map looks good, it's just that amounts are up in the air.

[Madtown]

Not mocking the title Geos....just mother nature's excuse for a winter this year.

[Geos]

Not mocking the title Geos....just mother nature's excuse for a winter this year.

 

I know you weren't. It doesn't look like a huge system anymore.

[jaster220]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2016/650x366_02272147_hd32.jpg

Cities at risk for enough snow to cause slick roads and disruptions to travel and daily routines in the Midwest include Des Moines and Davenport, Iowa; Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Chicago; Grand Rapids and Detroit, Michigan; Toledo and Cleveland, Ohio; and London, Ontario.

 

Accu-weather on board!

 

Jaster220..are ya ready?! Here we go again.

The map looks good, it's just that amounts are up in the air.

 

Surprisingly on the underlined, WPC still painting 1"+ qpf through our corridor as of this afternoon's update, so who knows what they're thinking even after models went totally flat. Guess they're counting on a re-surge eventually as sampling gets better. (shrugs shoulders)

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I know you weren't. It doesn't look like a huge system anymore.

 

Yeah, it fooled me too; it was prone to fool anyone when you see 18-24" amounts projected for a couple days.

[Niko]

The map looks good, it's just that amounts are up in the air.

I think by Sunday afternoon, models should have a better handle on this system.

[Niko]

Surprisingly on the underlined, WPC still painting 1"+ qpf through our corridor as of this afternoon's update , so who knows what they're thinking even after models went totally flat. Guess they're counting on a re-surge eventually as sampling gets better. (shrugs shoulders)

[Sciascia]

NAM run is actually pretty good for NE IL, paints 3-4" for downtown Chicago. Well, not 12z Euro on Thursday good, but definitely more than what 18z spit out.

[Geos]

Lol, model mayhem continues. 

 

 

[Geos]

Through 72 hours, GFS. Similar to the NAM. 

Yeah I think this will be a flat wave now.

 

[Geos]

GGEM! Yeah!

 

 

Storm starts going neutral tilt over IL.

 

[Geos]

Noticing the lake enhancement possibility is likely with the GGEM. 15-18 hours of winds blowing off the lake.

 

If the EURO comes in stronger again, we could be onto something again.

[Geos]

Low looks a little better. Starts in western TX and ejects towards southern MO. High is actually allowing it to come out more easily.

 

Low treks towards Cincinnati more or less.

 

[Geos]

 

Then further east.

 

 

[Geos]

GEPS has some members with further north/amped up solutions.

 

[Geos]

Amounts on the EURO would likely be higher due to higher ratios. Could be talking 15:1.

 

Some GEFS members north.

 

[Sciascia]

To use a baseball analogy, tonight's runs are like when your team starts getting runners on base in the 8th inning of a game they're losing by 3-4 runs. All you can hope for is that they keep the line moving & avoid any big outs.

[Sciascia]

NAM 06z, snow band goes north of 00z. S WI & S MI with the 3-6" snow band, and Geos finds himself near the 6" band.

[Money]

Some gfs ensembles are showing 1 + qpf for Southern WI and IL

 

6z GFS now showing 6-8 for Milwaukee and geos area as well

[Money]

6z GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160228/06Z/f084/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

6z NAM:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160228/06Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

6z RGEM at HR 48:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3285_100.gif

[Money]

GFS Ensembles at HR 60:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f60.gif

[Money]

72 HR Precip

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f90.gif