March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Geos]

0z NAM rolling.

 

 

[Money]

Nam coming north? Sure looks like it at hr 36

[Money]

Def trying to form some cold sector precip as it deepens might be a good hit for Chicago

[Geos]

Weird gap Chicago on south.

 

[Money]

Interesting trying to go neg tilt at hr 51

[Money]

4km nam way different gets to 999 at hr 45 and has a nice defo band forming with 6+ in western and eastern Iowa extending towards Chicago prolly

[Geos]

[Madtown]

Nice spread the wealth system...lol....60mi wide band of snow!

[Geos]

4km NAM is a bit better. The backside area will need to be watched. Thinking that could expand as model ingest more data. 

 

[Tom]

The Nam run reminds me sorta of the Dec 31st - Jan 2 2014 storm that produced a long duration frontogenesis snow and then the systems main defo band formed along with some lake effect at the tail end. It might have actually been the 2nd storm that 1st week of Jan. Interesting run tho. 4km Nam gets down to a 989mb near OH with a squall line along OV.

[jaster220]

What a beautiful track for my area.

 

Niko I think you will join the party of those getting smoked! See you in the smokehouse bud!

[Money]

Gfs with 6-10 from dbq east to Milwaukee

[Madtown]

Hey hey looky there

[GDR]

Unless you're in the southern Plains there is no recent model run showing 70s in the Midwest, expect western KS.

This isn't the thread for that though.

thats why I said close to the 70s

[Geos]

 

Pretty good agreement this band will be between Libertyville and Mequon about. 70 mile wide area of uncertainty.

[jaster220]

GFS a county or two north of where it ends up, or it's just a wider band?  That'd be good for most here.

[Geos]

RGEM at 10:1

 

 

 

The 12km NAM, 4km NAM, GFS, and RGEM have the f-gen snow core 60-75 miles north of the freezing line roughly.

[Money]

Ukie takes the low almost up to the quad cities

[Geos]

GGEM

 

[Money]

FYI UKMET is farther north with the fgn and hits lse to mke pretty good

[WildWisconsinWeather]

FYI UKMET is farther north with the fgn and hits lse to mke pretty good

 

Unfortunately for the most part the short term models seem to be on the southern edge of guidance atm.  That may change as we close in on the event.

[Geos]

The f-gen bands usually don't occur where the UKMET is showing it. In fact I don't think I've ever seen one north of I-94

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The f-gen bands usually don't occur where the UKMET is showing it. In fact I don't think I've ever seen one north of I-94

 

I don't understand what significance that should have; frontogenetic bands will occur where they want to, and depend on where the front sets up.

[Money]

The f-gen bands usually don't occur where the UKMET is showing it. In fact I don't think I've ever seen one north of I-94

I'm done posting here

[Geos]

I don't understand what significance that should have; frontogenetic bands will occur where they want to, and depend on where the front sets up.

 

I should have emphasized a bit more. After almost 20 winters of watching these features, when the front stalls out near I-80 after coming down the lake, they usually occur 50-75 miles north of that line. Usually these fronts that drop in from the north and northeast don't stop until they've reached the bottom of the lake.

 

Edit: Now if for some reason the front stalls at I-88, then I would be too far south of the band.

[MKEstorm]

MKX is waiting for the Euro. Looks like headlines will be issued in the morning AFD.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

 

656
FXUS63 KMKX 290446
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1046 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2016

.UPDATE...THE LATEST NAM AND GFS NOW FOCUS OVER SRN WI FOR MDT TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL MON NT AND TUE AM. IF THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE THERE
WILL FINALLY BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST TIME WITH
THIS SYSTEM. A STRONG N-S TROPOSPHERIC TEMP GRADIENT WILL STALL
OVER SRN WI AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MON AFT. AS A COUPLE
UPPER WAVES APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS...A SWLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP MON
NT AND PRODUCE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND 850 MB OVER
SRN WI. IT WILL BE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
BY THE RRQD OF THE UPPER JET. GFS AND NAM QPF AROUND 0.55 INCHES
BUT CONCERNED QPF WILL BE HIGHER WITHIN A NARROW W-E BAND OF
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH OVER
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AND SNOW MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO BLOW AND
DRIFT FAIRLY WELL. WINTER WX HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE
EARLY MON AM FORECAST PACKAGE.

 

[Geos]

Almost forgot to mention - all model runs tonight support lake enhanced snow, especially towards Tuesday morning.

[Geos]

Low travels near I-70 on the EURO until it gets to St. Louis and then moves towards Evansville.

 

 

Low continues straight down I-70 pretty much, then through central PA to NYC.

[Geos]

[MKEstorm]

 

 

The snow band is definitely north and stronger than at 12z...but the GFS had already showed this at 12z and has been more consistent. It seems the Euro has been playing 'catch up' all winter!

[Geos]

Only thing up in the air now is whether the actual storm has enough moisture on the backside.

 

Are you on the southside MKEstorm?

[MKEstorm]

Only thing up in the air now is whether the actual storm has enough moisture on the backside.

 

Are you on the southside MKEstorm?

 

 

I am located in southwest MKE County...about 4 miles due west of the airport!

[Geos]

I am located in southwest MKE County...about 4 miles due west of the airport!

 

Ok, that's what I thought I remembered. 

You'll probably get some fluffy snow tomorrow night. Temps look to dive after sunset.

[MKEstorm]

Ok, that's what I thought I remembered. 

You'll probably get some fluffy snow tomorrow night. Temps look to dive after sunset.

 

Temps been diving tonight! LOL! Was at near 60 with windows open early evening...then 2 hours later at 38.

[Geos]

NMM just pounds the stateline area.

 

 

ARW

 

[Geos]

6z HRRR at 3pm tomorrow. 

 

[Tony]

That band tonight looks pretty intense. Where it setups there could be over 1" hr rates for several hours with fairly windy conditions to boot.

[Madtown]

Yeah it will be rocking tonight for those in that 60mi wide area. Hoping to get a taste.

[hlcater]

It'll be so close I don't know what to do out here.

[Tony]

It'll be so close I don't know what to do out here.

RGEM has been looking good for your area. Will be interesting to see where it setsup