March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[midwest buildit]

Im neither of those. Directly west of cook county. In-between tonight's snow and later in the week snows. Lol. Im enjoying the tracking of these things. Just no confidence in any actual snow here.

[Geos]

Im neither of those. Directly west of cook county. In-between tonight's snow and later in the week snows. Lol. Im enjoying the tracking of these things. Just no confidence in any actual snow here.

 

Doh! Forgot where Lisle was. My bad

Pretty sure you'll have something to plow this week. 

 

I don't see any north trend with this. 

Snow streaking out of SD is heading along the MN/IA border. HRRR is going to bust up there. 

 

1/4 mile visibility and +SN at FSD.

 

Convergence near I-80.

 

[Torchtastic]

the fgen band is setting up pretty far north by the looks of it...

[Geos]

That band along the MN/IA line is suppose to crap out as the one to the south gets going.

 

Some tiny flurries now falling.

 

 

[Geos]

Band is firing up on the nose of the 850mb boundary layer. 

 

[hlcater]

33 here now.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster/West Jim/Niko's...this storm really amps up across S MI....you guys are going to do really good...

 

Latest...18z GFS...

 

Thx Tom - yep nice turn of events this has taken; late-game comeback in progress. Hoping that GEM run that painted 14" or 15" over my way can score a coup on the other guidance. It does read the cold air coming out of Canada the best. Looks like 18z GFS finally saw that puzzle piece and the GEFS now has some heavy hitters for SMI as well. Should be an interesting read from the wx offices as the models are giving them the run-around worse than the last storm!

[Niko]

@ Jaster/West Jim/Niko's...this storm really amps up across S MI....you guys are going to do really good...

 

Latest...18z GFS...

Tom, I have a strong feeling that my WWA will be changed to a WSW by later tonight or tomorrow. Currently expecting 4-7inches, but could be slightly higher.

[Niko]

Thx Tom - yep nice turn of events this has taken; late-game comeback in progress. Hoping that GEM run that painted 14" or 15" over my way can score a coup on the other guidance. It does read the cold air coming out of Canada the best. Looks like 18z GFS finally saw that puzzle piece and the GEFS now has some heavy hitters for SMI as well. Should be an interesting read from the wx offices as the models are giving them the run-around worse than the last storm!

Get ready Jaster220. This snowfall could be bigger than our previous snowstorm.

[westMJim]

At this time, it’s colder here then it was at any time before or during the last event. I have a temp now of 27° the cold front that came thru here came thru dry and there was no rain or snow with that. Right now the snow is several hundred miles to the west of west Michigan. Here is the GRR NWS brief take on the system.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/WinterStormMarch1st

[Geos]

Now I got bigger flakes coming down. 28° here

[Tom]

Now I got bigger flakes coming down. 28° here

D**n, 35dbz rates falling over McHenry/Lake county...

[Tom]

I bet its rip city under that band...heading right for Geo's

[Geos]

D**n, 35dbz rates falling over McHenry/Lake county...

It's going to go moderate snow pretty quickly.

[Tom]

All those heavy returns breaking out near Quad cities/Sterling is heading right for Chicago area...SW/NE trajectory...

[gosaints]

Straight snow geos?

[Tony]

Still rain in Bartlett

[gosaints]

What is the 4km seeing

[Geos]

Straight snow geos?

90% snow, 10% sleet.

 

Edit: Tick, tick sound is quickly fading. Ground is whitening up.

[hlcater]

FZR here. 

[ChiTownWeather]

Sleet falling in Buffalo Grove

[Geos]

Couple tenths down now. Took a little while for the snow to stick. 95%+ snow now, with the just the occasional sleet pellet.

[Madtown]

Patiently waiting here 17mi south of madison. Looks like mkx upped snow totals some more.

[Geos]

Just about 0.4" here so far. 100% snow now.

 

Falling into the mid 20s like most models forecast.

[Madtown]

It has begun little flakes with plenty of wind.

[Geos]

The warm nose that was sticking up by DBQ has sunk south. Feel good about this staying all snow now.

 

[midwest buildit]

Got freezing rain and sleet here.

[Madtown]

No picking up in intensity at all. Patio table barely has anything on it ground bare

[Geos]

0.7" of snow now.

 

Should hit an inch by 9:30 or so.

[gosaints]

No picking up in intensity at all. Patio table barely has anything on it ground bare

The swath of decent accumulation looks to end up a couple counties wide

[Geos]

HRRR swayed back south some.

Reports of +SN in south of me now in Northbrook.

 

[Geos]

New mesoscale discussion

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010249Z - 010845Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING 1+ INCH
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
UNDERWAY FROM CENTRAL IOWA EASTWARD TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING
700-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS /DEWPOINTS AS LOW
AS 5-7F IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA/... CONTINUED
LIFT/PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN A GRADUALLY MOISTENING/COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW...ALTHOUGH
LOCALIZED AREAS FROM EAST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY
EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SLEET AS PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH A MODEST
WARM LAYER /AROUND 0C/ AROUND 850 MB. OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ONE OR
TWO BANDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING GREATER THAN ONE-INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES OVERNIGHT.

 

[james1976]

Snowing hard and sticking here!

[Geos]

Had a lull of -SN for about 30 minutes, but now back to high end moderate.

Crossing over an inch now.

[midwest buildit]

Light rain. Freezing on elevated surfaces.

[Geos]

Been dumping here since the last post. Grass has disappeared. 2"+ easy

[Sciascia]

Been dumping here since the last post. Grass has disappeared. 2"+ easy

Glad you're getting hit well. I'm hoping to scrape out an inch or two tomorrow.

[Geos]

At 2" at about 11:25

 

 

Should make up some ground as the night goes on. Band doesn't look to lift north.

[Sleather]

What a bust! The thing just fell apart

[Money]

Supposed to get 4-5 here now under a WWA. Coming down nicely