March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[gosaints]

Higher rez globals u mean? Not understanding exactly what you meant there buddy?

Euro, fim, para euro, gfs are your pretty hi rez globals

[jaster220]

About to be 6

 

For instance (and I hate warm ground during winter) I get home this evening and in spite of my car thermo reading 29*F there's another (smaller) puddle at the street. Sun angle's getting ugly too. Oh well, we've been spoiled over here the last two years getting huge snows and bitter cold that kept a deep snowcover for weeks which is NOT climo for SMI where I live. 07-08 was very normal in that just about every good snowstorm melted off to plow piles before the next one hit. Very little snow-on-snow which I always had living in NMI for 7 years.

[jaster220]

Euro, fim, para euro, gfs are your pretty hi rez globals

 

Thx

[Niko]

By Sunday, models hopefully should have a better grip on this storm. Chicago posters should keep a close eye on this for a substantial accumulating snowfall stretching into Central/southern lower MI. Anything could change from now till the actual event. Hopefully no mixing in SEMI this time.

[hlcater]

I think I'm in a good spot as well. If the SLP can get its act together earlier.

[Geos]

NAM is starting to come around. The low has more potential on that model than it does on the GFS.

 

[hlcater]

GFS back north, but is weak. only drops 2-4 in its heaviest band.

 

 

Edit: 3-5 inches is shown across the MI-OH border.

[Geos]

GFS back north, but is weak. only drops 2-4 in its heaviest band.

 

 

Edit: 3-5 inches is shown across the MI-OH border.

 

Hey, it's a step in the right direction.

 

 

Got a little ways to go yet. Needs to go negative tilt sooner.

 

[Geos]

GGEM still not quite there, but getting there again...

 

[Geos]

It's getting there. Need the negative tilt a little sooner.

 

 

[Geos]

EURO out to 60 hours. Will know what happens within 10 minutes or so.

 

72 hours

 

 

[hlcater]

EURO out to 60 hours. Will know what happens within 10 minutes or so.

 

 

 

 

Euro looks a bit too south for me at first glance

[Geos]

Goes from Cleveland to Watertown by 108 hours.

 

Negative tilt as it enters IL. Heaviest snow band will be a bit east this time, but on a similar latitude.

 

[Geos]

Euro looks a bit too south for me at first glance

 

It's not too much different than the 12z run.

[hlcater]

It's not too much different than the 12z run.

You have more frames then I do, I just have 24hrs, so drawing a conclusion is hard.

[Geos]

The low passes just north of St. Louis. 850 mb low is a bit north of that.

 

The result.

 

[hlcater]

goes neg tilt a tad too late for me, but getting there

[Geos]

The 12z run would be awesome to see again. We're starting to slide into the higher confidence zone. 72 hours before the energy leaves CO.

 

Lake enhancement would occur with this run too.

 

[midwest buildit]

Getting me all excited about snow again. Lol

[Tom]

00z FIM-9...

[Tom]

Ensembles are not looking that impressive with this system anymore...not a good trend to say the least...

[indianajohn]

So looks like you are staying in Arizona? LOL No more blizzard to track?

[Tom]

So looks like you are staying in Arizona? LOL No more blizzard to track?

Doh!  Looks like it...for now at least...can't say I wont be upset though...mid 80's and sunshine next 10 days.  Arizona has had the warmest Feb on record and has broken a substantial amount of daily high temps and 80F+ streaks this month.  

[indianajohn]

Yea I am sure we all feel bad for you. LOL!!! 15"-20"+ Blizzards are once a decade experience. Everything needs to align just right for that to happen in our area. Still some time but doesn't look good right now.

[hlcater]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160227/12Z/f108/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

12z GFS snowfall. Better than all runs over the past 24 hours but more like an event, not a storm around here at least.

[Tom]

Yea I am sure we all feel bad for you. LOL!!! 15"-20"+ Blizzards are once a decade experience. Everything needs to align just right for that to happen in our area. Still some time but doesn't look good right now.

I'm sure you guys will get some snow but not looking like any of significance.  Even the higher rez models are losing steam.  It could change like you said, but odds of that happening are decreasing.since the trends over the last 24+ hours have been for a weaker system.  Euro still showing a decent storm but has veered away from the very strong storm on yesterday afternoon's 12z run.

[hlcater]

Well, A few days ago this storm was screaming with potential, but over the last day it's really farted out into a nuisance event.

[Geos]

12z GFS is pretty close guys. 

 

The wave is neutral tilt a little sooner than previous runs. I think it would help if that western lobe of the Hudson Bay low was a bit farther west.

 

 

Not all is lost yet~

[Geos]

GGEM is getting there too.

 

 

 

[Tony]

Not anything like the 12z Euro from yesterday. Let's hope the 12z Euro comes back towards the amped up run from yesterday or something close to it.

[Geos]

So far everything is the same as yesterday.

 

UKMET

 

[jcwxguy]

today's 12z euro is way different then yesterdays 

[Tony]

If Euro caves to the other weaker models then we can write a blizzard off our list

[jcwxguy]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160227/12Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[Geos]

If Euro caves to the other weaker models then we can write a blizzard off our list

 

Yeah if it doesn't come back by tomorrow, I'll take the word off the title.

 

That high comes down too fast/the low is too slow to come out.

 

Still have a positive tilt as it passes over IL and IN.

 

 

[Tony]

Let's just finally get this worthless winter over with and jump into spring. Who cares about a few inches of snow

[Geos]

Looking like a moderate snow event from southern WI across NE IL and southern MI.

 

NE winds off the lake, might help boost up totals in this area. The air coming in is pretty cold.

[Tom]

Gone is the storm on the Euro...it's to bad, looked like it had potential and the way the GFS was showing a very strong storm for days you'd think that the model would score a coupe on this one.

[Tom]

I think the storm on its heels has more of a chance to develop into something bigger.

[Geos]

I'd root for the GGEM or GFS now. 

 

This is pitiful.