Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Money]

18z GEFS:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_8.png

 

48

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_9.png

 

QPF:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032218/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_11.png

[Jaycee]

If I had to guess, I'll go out and say Winona/Lacrosse will be the real winners. Bullseyed for days with hardly any changes. Hoping for the best! If this thing amps up at all and shifts NW even 25 miles were in business

[jlp]

Looking like the Euro may have been on to something.

[Snowshoe]

From Green Bay NWS

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

 

HAVE NOTICED THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP

PCPN...AND SHOW INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING S OF THE FCST AREA.

WL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK BEFORE DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT

THAT IDEA HAS MERIT AND NEEDS TO BE INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST.

[Geos]

From Green Bay NWS

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016

 

HAVE NOTICED THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP

PCPN...AND SHOW INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING S OF THE FCST AREA.

WL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK BEFORE DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT

THAT IDEA HAS MERIT AND NEEDS TO BE INCORPORATED INTO THE FCST.

 

This and the GEFS track is something to keep in mind definitely.

 

Wind started to shift onshore here now, although it's not the main front. 

 

Down to 39° in Sheboygan now.

 

[Money]

Doesn't the euro develop the initial precip farther south?

[Madtown]

Can't move too far south. Put stable in the snow blower today and got her ready for the summer.

[Geos]

Doesn't the euro develop the initial precip farther south?

 

Yep. Initially along US 20 in Iowa and then it centers from Ozaukee County to Decorah, Iowa. 

 

Based off the EURO 0z hour, the temperatures in Washington County are running 5-8° colder. What's your temp right now?

[gosaints]

Still a balmy 53 here

[Madtown]

52 here

[Money]

Yep. Initially along US 20 in Iowa and then it centers from Ozaukee County to Decorah, Iowa.

 

Based off the EURO 0z hour, the temperatures in Washington County are running 5-8° colder. What's your temp right now?

39

[jlp]

51 in MIlwaukee

[Geos]

39

 

Looks on target with the HRRR.

Few degrees colder than the EURO.

 

[gosaints]

Honest ?. Dont know climatology along the lake well.

 

What impact will this.front that is being talked about have on the sensible weather? 850mb temps seem to be step for step with the nam and the hrrr

[WBadgersW]

43 here and still under a WSW

[Geos]

Honest ?. Dont know climatology along the lake well.

 

What impact will this.front that is being talked about have on the sensible weather? 850mb temps seem to be step for step with the nam and the hrrr

 

What it would do is hamper the progression of the warm north tomorrow. It might be enough to move the 850 mb freezing line south a little. 

Right now it is 34° in Green Bay, the EURO doesn't have them getting to that temperature until about midnight.

 

Speaking of precipitation south, this is the HRRR in the morning. EURO had IL dry at this time.

 

[Money]

Yeah hrrr, and rap really light up n. IL in the late morning

 

Nam is more towards GB

[Jaycee]

Yeahhh this south trend is the death of meach getting anything huge.

[Geos]

Gauging the speed of the front currently, the EURO will be about an hour and a half slow with the front.

 

About to hit Madison now.

[gosaints]

Yeahhh this south trend is the death of meach getting anything huge.

Lol at least stay the course man...

 

21z srefs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_045_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=21&param=precip_p24&fhr=045&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160322+21+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[Money]

Gosaints getting nervous

 

Geos the magnet going to reel this one in

[gosaints]

Gosaints getting nervous

 

Geos the magnet going to reel this one in

Lol nervous ya ok very nervous. I could care less. Fun to watch unfold. U r way better off trying to troll someone else

[Geos]

Gosaints getting nervous

 

Geos the magnet going to reel this one in

 

Yeah I don't think so. Maybe Madtown turned on his magnet though.

I just want to see which model handled this system and front the best.

 

So now the skies clear out. 

Radiational cooling is doing its job right now.

[Money]

Lol nervous ya ok very nervous. I could care less. Fun to watch unfold. U r way better off trying to troll someone else

Lol dude I'm just kidding

[Madtown]

The magnet of putting the snowblower away for the year...not gonna lie. As I was putting her away I was hoping it might just work.

[gosaints]

Lol dude I'm just kidding

No doubt..

[Jaycee]

Lol dude I'm just kidding

You can troll me rn Money. I'll be your Snowlover76 for the next 24 hours.

[Geos]

Making a call that the front will stall from Pontiac to Watseka. 

 

This will be GoSaints yard Thursday evening.

 

[Jaycee]

Agreed, Gosaints is absolutely in the jackpot zone. I really hope you get 2' out of this! Just might have to hwad down to Rochester Friday and see the aftermath.

[Money]

Down to 36 here btw 

 

HRRR running 2-3 degrees too warm 

[Madtown]

49 here 43 on the north side of Madison.

[Money]

NAM explodes the precip farther south tomorrow afternoon:

0z HR 18:http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f18/refmw.png

 

18z HR 24:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160322/18Z/f24/refmw.png

[WildWisconsinWeather]

NAM explodes the precip farther south tomorrow afternoon:

0z HR 18:http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160323/00Z/f18/refmw.png

 

18z HR 24:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160322/18Z/f24/refmw.png

 

It doesn't look further south, it's just slower.  Notice the heavier echoes from the 18z are due east of the 0z over the lake.

[Geos]

Front swung through about 8:45. Hard to tell, because the skies cleared and it cooled off ahead of time. 

[Snowshoe]

Dropped to 40. Really nice afternoon, really hard to think about what tomorrow might hold.

[gosaints]

Totals will be less impressive on the NAM

[Geos]

Nice band of sleet there.

 

[Money]

Totals will be less impressive on the NAM

 

It's slower than 18z but a little bit. Will still see widespread 12+ amounts this run.

[Madtown]

Hey hey two sleet storms in one year...could it be!

[Geos]

Low is much further southwest at this time. 100 miles about.