Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Money]

Not riding anything yet I can see both sides and why gfs/nam are north and ggem/ukie/euro south

 

Don't think we'll know until this thing starts developing

[NEJeremy]

Is that 2nd storm only or both together?

that's the 240 hour forecast total, so both storms

[Money]

Early guess is nam comes in a tad north than 12z

[NEJeremy]

Yuck, NWS updated grids for Omaha and pushed back the changeover to snow Wednesday night and ended the precip earlier= much less snow here. 

[Money]

HP really trying to do work and keep this south. Going to be close to 12z.

[Snowshoe]

Milwaukee and Green Bay go with Watches.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ058&warncounty=WIC027&firewxzone=WIZ058&local_place1=2%20Miles%20NNW%20Beaver%20Dam%20WI&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=43.464&lon=-88.8372#.VvBZKuIrJpg

 

La Crosse is waiting.

SOME CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPES REMAINS IN THE RAIN-SNOW
TRANSITION ZONE. ANY WARM LAYER ALOFT PROGGED TO BE NEAR WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW-MID 30S. ANY FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM A WARM LAYER ALOFT APPEARS NEGATED BY SFC TEMPS ABOVE
32F. FOR NOW LEFT PRECIP TYPES WED/WED NIGHT AS SNOW OR RAIN. STAYED
WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON THE WED/WED NIGHT OUTCOME AS
WELL...UNTIL ONE SET OF MODELS FLINCHES AND THEY ALL END UP IN THE
SAME CAMP. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR
TUE THRU WED NIGHT. APPEARS SOME PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY NEED A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE TO DETERMINE WHERE.

[Money]

NAM with a nudge south of 12z and increased the snow amounts in the heaviest band a little bit. 

 

18z:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160321/18Z/f72/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

HP really trying to do work and keep this south. Going to be close to 12z.

 

It's all going to come down to that high strength and how fast it can infiltrate the colder air.

NAM is 5-6 hour later on the front passage then the EURO again.

 

This is where the EURO takes it. NAM takes it to downtown Chicago.

 

 

 

[Money]

RGEM at HR 48 which tends to be more amplified/north at this range:

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2016032118/I_nw_EST_2016032118_048.png

[Money]

How does the EURO ensembles look Geos or Tom?

[Geos]

I can see this map style, but Tom will have to chime in with the others.

 

 

Is there any source where you can see EURO sounding data?

[Tom]

12z EPS/Control nudged a tad north...

[GDR]

Minnesota and Wisconsin can have it

[Madtown]

Looking like the gfs gets the win. Trend is north. Come on spring!

[Money]

12z HR 66

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/12Z/f066/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

18z HR 60

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/18Z/f060/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

GFS sped the front up by about an hour, but probably not enough to make a lot of difference.

 

Snow is closer to Milwaukee and Madison this time. 

[Money]

LP tracks to the north side of Chicago it looks like:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/18Z/f060/sfcmw.png

[Madtown]

Gone are the days of being 100mi north of the low and getting snow. Same as every "beast" this winter

[Tom]

GFS sped the front up by about an hour, but probably not enough to make a lot of difference.

 

Snow is closer to Milwaukee and Madison this time. 

Snow is farther north...MKE/MSN get rain this run...Looks like a Northwoods special on the GFS

[Geos]

LP tracks to the north side of Chicago it looks like:

 

 

Over northern Cook County.

[Money]

Total snowfall:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/18Z/f078/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Geos]

Snow is farther north...MKE/MSN get rain this run...Looks like a Northwoods special on the GFS

 

It has more backlash this time around. You can see the 1" line is closer to Badgers.

[Money]

Snow is farther north...MKE/MSN get rain this run...Looks like a Northwoods special on the GFS

 

Depends where you're at. went from 2 inches of snow on 12z to nearly 9 on 18z and the 2-4 inch area is closer to Milwaukee this run than on 12z. 

[Madtown]

Put a fork in her

[Money]

DVN mentioning the possibility of colder air working in and pushing this farther south:

 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE THE ECMWF

FARTHER NORTH BUT THE GFS/NAM/CANADIAN FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO

PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CONSENSUS WOULD THEN TAKE THE STRONG CYCLONE

ROUGHLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO

NORTHERN INDIANA ON THURSDAY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OVER

THE CWA WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES HAVING MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET...

WHILE THE I-80 CORRIDOR STARTS OUT WITH RAIN THEN TRANSITIONING TO

SLEET AND THEN SNOW. OUR SOUTHERN CWA WILL HAVE MAINLY RAIN THEN

TURNING TO SLEET AND SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. VERY

COLD AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES

WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY FORCE THIS SYSTEM EVEN FARTHER SOUTH MAKING

FOR A BIGGER SLEET OR SNOW STORM. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE MORE

RUNS TO HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLY

ISSUING ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT. THE BIG QUESTION WILL

BE HOW MUCH FALLS AS RAIN INITIALLY...THEN HOW LONG THE SLEET LASTS

BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW. OF COURSE...THE AMOUNT OF FROZEN

PRECIPITATION WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DAYS

BEYOND THIS EVENT. WE HAVE ALSO MENTIONED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS TOWARDS THE CWA

AND A STORNG LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE

AREA. HOWEVER...CAPE WILL BE MINIMAL WHICH IS THE REASON FOR ONLY

MENTIONING ISOLATED STORMS.

[WBadgersW]

Lets pull this sucker South.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Lets pull this sucker South.

 

If nothing else, maybe this can be one of those elusive thunderstorms to wintry precip/snow transitions.  Doesn't happen often, but with how dynamic this storm is, could happen.

[Geos]

Lets pull this sucker South.

 

I wish the short range high resolution model were within range. I want to see how they handle the front tomorrow night.

I can see that the 23z HRRR has the front at Manitowoc at 9am.

 

That warm nose is the shallowest on the EURO. Plenty cold above and below 850 mb. 

[gosaints]

I wish the short range high resolution model were within range. I want to see how they handle the front tomorrow night.

I can see that the 23z HRRR has the front at Manitowoc at 9am.

 

That warm nose is the shallowest on the EURO. Plenty cold above and below 850 mb.

the hrrr and.rap have had plenty of.fails this winter

[Money]

Gosaints rooting this north so bad

[Tom]

18z GEFS...over the last 3 runs, the snow band has gone a tad north each run...

[gosaints]

Gosaints rooting this north so bad

Best stuff north of here.

[Stormgeek]

18z GEFS...over the last 3 runs, the snow band has gone a tad north each run...

Let's get E3 in here; absolutely hammers me. I hope this trend is able to continue, these past few winters have been quite boring on my side of town, meanwhile south of MSP has gotten hammered it seems. Side note: almost reported this post because of clumsy button pressing, lol.

[Geos]

Gosaints rooting this north so bad

 

Yep, he wants a white Easter. 

[gosaints]

Gosaints rooting this north so bad

Calling it like I see it.. Like north if here for the highest totals

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I wish the short range high resolution model were within range. I want to see how they handle the front tomorrow night.

I can see that the 23z HRRR has the front at Manitowoc at 9am.

 

That warm nose is the shallowest on the EURO. Plenty cold above and below 850 mb. 

 

You shouldn't, they almost certainly will favor the non-Euro models.  At this point the Euro's just about on its own, along with its ensembles.  The GEM is somewhat of a compromise of the north and south models, but nothing looks favorable for Milwaukee and Madison pretty much but the Euro.

[bud2380]

NAM is running, hopefully we'll come closer to a consensus tonight. I think the GFS is on the right track though. I'm still not buying the Euro, although it has been consistent, it did nudge north a touch on 12z.  Still about a 150-200 mile gap between the GFS and Euro though. 

[gosaints]

srefs cut back qpf

[Geos]

NAM is running, hopefully we'll come closer to a consensus tonight. I think the GFS is on the right track though. I'm still not buying the Euro, although it has been consistent, it did nudge north a touch on 12z.  Still about a 150-200 mile gap between the GFS and Euro though. 

 

Hopefully it will line up with the GFS at least, but don't count on it. It's still in its iffy range. Would be nice if the GFS caved to the EURO.

[Money]

Coming in south