Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Money]

GFS Ensembles are south of the OP a little bit.

 

HR 72:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032100/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_13.png

 

 

HR 84

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032100/gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_15.png

[Money]

UKIE at HR 72:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

850 MB Temps:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif

[Money]

Last post until the euro comes out:

 

GB updated AFD:

 

 

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

 

FORECAST FOCUS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ON THE CYCLONE CROSSING

THE REGION MID-WEEK...AND IT/S POTENTIAL TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT

SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THOUGH EXHIBITING SOME TIMING

DIFFERENCES...THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND CANADIAN

MODELS GENERATED A SYSTEM THAT WOULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF

THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THESE MODELS...

SOME MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE

ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE

PAST 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...AND HAD A

SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. IT/S TRACK COULD

STILL RESULT IN WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS OVER ABOUT THE SE 1/4 TO 1/3

OF THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH LOWER TOTALS AND A MUCH SHARPER

DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION NW OF THE FOX VALLEY.

 

A FEW THOUGHTS ON THIS SYSTEM FROM ROUGHLY 3 DAYS OUT. BOTH THE

GFS AND THE ECMWF HAD GOOD SUPPORT FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE

MEANS. LOOKED TO SEE IF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWED EVEN A SMALL

CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS WITH A MORE SLY TRACK SIMILAR TO THE

ECMWF...AND FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF THAT. SO THERE DOESN/T SEEM TO

BE MUCH HELP FROM THE ENSEMBLE DATA. ONE THING THAT CAUGHT MY EYE

WAS THAT THE 12Z RUN OF THE UKMET TRACKED THE CYCLONE MUCH

FARTHER SE...BASICALLY EWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT WOULD

INDICATE SOME SUPPORT FOR A TRACK MORE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE

ECWMF...THOUGH UNLIKE THE ECMWF...THE UKMET WAS VERY FAST MOVG THE

SYSTEM EAST. IT/S ALSO HARD TO GO AGAINST THE ECMWF AFTER IT

CLEARLY OUT PERFORMED THE REST OF THE MODELS WITH LAST WEEKS

SYSTEM.

 

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY COME INTO BETTER FOCUS

DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE IS REASON

TO BE AT LEAST A LITTLE SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALLS

GENERATED BY THE GFS. CURRENT HWO HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A

STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS TO AT LEAST PORTIONS

OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THAT

SEEMS LIKE THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THE SITUATION UNTIL BETTER

CONFIDENCE IS GAINED IN THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND AND

THE SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE BAND.

[Geos]

So we have three camps sort of. GFS, NAM north, GEM middle I would say, and EURO south.

 

GEFS mean like the GEM more or less?

[Money]

Would say a tad more north and stronger than GGEM but not by much 

 

Here is the ens at 78

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032100/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_14.png

[Money]

And HR 84

 

Only one makes it into WI. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016032100/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_15.png

 

And GGEM at HR 84

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_084_0000.gif

[Geos]

48 hours.

 

[Money]

Same exact spot as 0z last night but 1 MB stronger.

 

A tad warmer at 850 compared to 0z last night but nothing really major 

[Geos]

Out to 54 hours on the EURO, everything looks similar so far in terms of frontal passage timing.

 

Actually a touch faster here. Around 12z Tues for Milwaukee, couple hours later here.

 

60 hours and the front is through Kankakee.

[Money]

Going to be nearly identical to 12z I would think. 

[Geos]

Same exact spot as 0z last night but 1 MB stronger.

 

A tad warmer at 850 compared to 0z last night but nothing really major 

 

60 hours the low is over the OK panhandle, sw of Wichita.

[Money]

994 L in NE KS at HR 72:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160321/00Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

[MKEstorm]

Looks a tad south.

[Geos]

F-gen band is about 15 miles further north at 66 hours. 

Was centered over Lake County, now over Kenosha County more or less. Not very far. This time though it is wider and stronger.

[Money]

997 L in C/N Ohio at 96. 

 

Probably south of 12z I would guess 

[MKEstorm]

997 L in C/N Ohio at 96. 

 

Probably south of 12z I would guess 

 

 

Ya, looks more like last night's 0z position.

[Money]

Ya, looks more like last night's 0z position.

 

Altho with the FGN band being wider and stronger who knows.

[Tom]

MKE with 2'+ again along with Lehs....Euro had 6"+ from Holdredge, NE thru N IA into S WI thru C MI. 10"+ from IA/WI into MI.

[Geos]

Central Iowa to Kenosha, Racine and Milwaukee are in the heaviest corridor so far.

 

Don't have the 30" amounts, but very respectable.

 

[Money]

Right on the boarder here. Still looks like 9+ which isn't bad. 

 

Most of MKE Forecast area with 14+ and a pretty wide band of 20+ still showing up. 

[Geos]

Omaha creeping closer to 12" amounts.

 

Yeah I'll take the 11 or 12" and run with it.

[Money]

Omaha creeping closer to 12" amounts.e 

 

Yeah I'll take the 11 or 12" and run with it

 

To see this kind of amounts in late March is insane. Out of the Top 30 snowfall events in WI history only three were from March 20th and later. 

[MKEstorm]

The GFS has been very consistent north...and Euro very consistent south! Somethings gotta give! Maybe a compromise which would be the Canadian?

[Money]

Yeah I think we see them start to move towards each other at some point. I don't think one will suddenly make a huge jump towards the other but it will be small shifts. 

[Geos]

The GFS has been very consistent north...and Euro very consistent south! Somethings gotta give! Maybe a compromise which would be the Canadian?

 

Showdown at 12z today?

 

I don't know who's going to cave first. Canadian could have the right idea. Depends on the baroclinic zone setup. EURO is hell bent on pushing it down to at least Lincoln, IL while the GFS is barely to Joliet.

 

Until the morning - have a good night.

[WBadgersW]

I'm glad to see the GEM hop on board with nearly 30". Just need the GFS to come South. Final call, 1.2"-30" :/

[Madtown]

Mkx going with rain and 1 to 2" snow here

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Anyone know what the Euro Ensembles look like?

[Snowshoe]

Dear NAM,

 

I really don't need 17.6" of snow. Winter toys are put away, boat is ready and golf clubs dusted off. Don't pull this bleeping stuff now! Save it for next December!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160321/00Z/f84/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

[Snowshoe]

Grand Rapids, MI out with watches.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=grr&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

[gosaints]

trough is on shore should start seeing some blinking

[gosaints]

NAM isnt any colder through 36.

50 at 6pm in MSP tomorrow night

[Madtown]

Maybe just a wink, not a full blink.

[westMJim]

I see that GRR has pulled the trigger early and issued a Winter Storm Watch.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/WinterWeatherPossible

  The one odd thing about this is that they are the only office to have a watch issued as of now.  That means they could be on to something or they will have a red face come later in the week. While I never discount a late winter (heart break) storm my guess would be the further north. Anyway I think that GRR may have pulled the trigger too early on this but we shall see.

[gosaints]

I see that GRR has pulled the trigger early and issued a Winter Storm Watch.

http://www.weather.gov/grr/WinterWeatherPossible

  The one odd thing about this is that they are the only office to have a watch issued as of now.  That means they could be on to something or they will have a red face come later in the week. While I never discount a late winter (heart break) storm my guess would be the further north. Anyway I think that GRR may have pulled the trigger too early on this but we shall see.

Way to early

[gosaints]

Liking MSP yet Money???

[Madtown]

?

[gosaints]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160321/12Z/f75/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Madtown]

No blinking there. Crazy how there have been 2 distinct camps with so many storms this year.

[Geos]

Grand Rapids, MI out with watches.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=grr&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

Interesting.

NAM is too far north imo.

 

The EURO has been really consistent and the GFS has too, but it did flinch last night.