Potential Winter Storm 3/23 & 3/24

[Tony]

Looking at this from a distance as I really don't care about snow unless it is a HUGE amount but the storms this winter have mostly ended up south and east of modeling 3-5 days out. Not saying it will happen this time around, just going with trends.

[Grizzcoat]

12z baby stepping S. 989 L just N of KC at hr 60

[Grizzcoat]

12z GFS that is

[NEJeremy]

I saw it referenced here that one one of the WFO's discussion mentioned how well the Euro did with last weeks storm and per Jim, the Euro was updated on 3/8, so maybe King Euro will be the way to go.

[gosaints]

South?? not at 850.... 12+ MSP city proper

[Tom]

Anyone know what the Euro Ensembles look like?

Holding steady..

[Geos]

Milwaukee should mention the possibility of heavy snowfall amounts in the metro as a side note. People will start traveling by Thursday for Easter.

 

This is why GRR pulled the watch.

 

 

PCPN WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NIGHT...AND REALLY BECOME
WIDESPREAD ON WED. THE SFC FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TUE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CRAWL SOUTH THROUGH WED. AT THE SAME TIME...WE WILL SEE
STRONG SRLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGIN ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. PCPN WILL START OUT AS RAIN TUE
NIGHT...AND WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT I-96 BY 12Z
WED. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH...HOWEVER
IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED INTO WED MORNING.

WE ARE FAVORING THE COLDER AND SNOWIER EURO SOLUTION FOR THE
CHANGEOVER AND POSITION OF P-TYPES FROM WED AND INTO THE LONG TERM.
WE BELIEVE THAT THE EURO IS HANDLING THE UPPER LOW MUCH BETTER AS IT
EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES. THE GFS AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE THE UPPER LOW
ACCELERATE EAST TOO MUCH RESULTING FROM INTERACTIONS WITH INDIVIDUAL
SHORT WAVES.

WE WILL SEE THE RAIN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE CWFA BY 00Z
THU AS THE COLDER AIR WILL MAKE IT ALMOST TO THE SRN BORDER BY THEN.
I-94 COUNTIES MAY HOLD ON TO RAIN THROUGH THEN...BUT TEMPS WILL BE
APPROACHING FREEZING BY THEN. WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN START
THERE TOWARD 00Z THU IF TEMPS FALL QUICK ENOUGH DOWN SOUTH WITH THE
MELTING LAYER ALOFT THERE. SNOW LOOKS TO START ACCUMULATING WED
AFTERNOON AND COULD CREATE IMPACTS FOR THE WED EVENING COMMUTE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA. ALL OF THIS WOULD BE A MAJOR CHANGE
COMPARED TO THE VERY SPRING-LIKE WARMTH WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 2-
3 WEEKS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THAT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOW MUCH IMPACT IS NOT
CERTAIN BUT THERE IS A RISK FOR HIGH IMPACTS.

GFS CONTINUES WARMER THAN THE HIGH RES EURO AND WOULD WARRANT LESS
IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS FOCUSING A WINTRY MIX MAINLY NORTH OF A GRAND
RAPIDS TO LANSING REGION. THE HIGH RES EURO 00Z RUN SETS UP A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT EVENT WITH A SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW EAST TO WEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH A MIX DOWN TOWARDS I94. USERS
WOULD NEED SEVERAL DAYS TO PLAN TO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS IF THE
HIGH RES EURO VERIFIES. THE COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE...DEEP
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A MID LEVEL WAVE...AND
STRONGER GEN SUPPORTS A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA WITH
THIS EVENT. WE ARE FAVORING THE HIGH RES EURO AS IT HAS SHOWN RATHER
GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. PLUS THE GFS HAS SOME ISSUES
WITH THE RUNS ON SUNDAY THAT MAY CARRY OVER INTO THE CURRENT RUNS.

THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY SUPPORTS MUCH LESS IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION. YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND.

 

[Geos]

GFS is still about 125 miles further north than the EURO.

 

[WBadgersW]

So it continues. Time for the GEM

[Geos]

So far at 48 hours. GEM has the low at 992 mb near Salina, KS.

...

Low weakens a little at 60 hours. 995mb near MCI.

 

72 hours the low is just south of Bloomington it looks like, but now at 1000 mb. Freezing line is around Racine to Muskegon.

[WBadgersW]

GEM looks more rainy here. I would feel comfortable if I lived in Central/North Central WI

[Geos]

GEM shoots the low towards Buffalo then. 

 

WBadgers, it snows by you for sure. Ice south.

 

 

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032112/gem_asnow_ncus_14.png

[Geos]

Side note obs: Noticing that the south flow tomorrow has been weakening and not making it as far north on the non-EURO models. I think that's why the EURO is keeping the frontal passage time around 6pm here. Might end up with an east/southeast wind after late morning here.

[james1976]

Mostly nuisance snow here on today's runs. See what Euro shows. GoSaints up to msp look prime. And into C. WI

[Geos]

12z GGEM...

 

 

25-30 mile shift in the southern 2' edge.

 

[Geos]

To show the difference in how far south the lake enhanced cold front gets before the storm ejects into the region.

 

EURO top, 6z GFS bottom (12z didn't load)

 

 

[Madtown]

Gfs looks more realistic to me, but who knows?

[Tom]

The snow fall totals the models are consistently spitting out for this late in the season are fascinating to see.  I'd like to see them pan out and produce a historic storm somewhere in the region.

[Geos]

GEFS mean is south by like 100 miles of the operational...

[Tom]

12z GEFS...

[NEJeremy]

It is pretty interesting to see though, that none of the WFO's are mentioning anywhere close to these amounts. I think the highest I've seen mentioned is maybe 6"

[Geos]

EURO holding steady so far. Low west of Dodge City at 36 hours. 

Frontal passage time looks to hit Milwaukee before dinner time. 

 

F-gen band breaks out along US 20.

 

Freezing line down to Badgers by 7pm Tuesday.

[Tom]

What a nasty looking defo band on the 12z Euro...will post maps when they load...MKE region seems to be right at the cusp of the F-Band when precip breaks out and 850's start off at 0C Wed around Noon time then crash as temps follow suit into upper 20's.

 

James area through Madison/MKE get crushed...

 

 

[gosaints]

EURO slowly upping totals here.  Not a fun forecast for MKE or MSP.  They have another cycle though

[WBadgersW]

Euro looks to hold serve... Hopefully half of those amounts verify, that would be like 10".

[Geos]

Main difference was that the 850mb freezing line was about 20 miles farther north. Hangs right around Kenosha for awhile.

[Snowshoe]

The snow fall totals the models are consistently spitting out for this late in the season are fascinating to see.  I'd like to see them pan out and produce a historic storm somewhere in the region.

 

Top five 24hr. March snows for Wausau, Wi (north central WI). Look at 2 and 3, that's a 22.1" storm total. Wow.

1.      13.0″ from 29-March 1924
2.      11.1″  from 5-March 1959
3.      11.0″ from 6-March 1959
4.      10.6″ from 3-March 1989
5.      10.5″ from 10-March 1956

[Madtown]

North is the way to go.

[Hawkeye]

That latest euro snow map is this entire season in one image..... Waterloo gets clobbered, while totals drop off to nothing for the CR/IC area.

[Geos]

How far north is the question though.

Does the front struggle to northward tomorrow.

Are the ensembles onto something... so many questions.

 

I would side with the EURO's speed on the cold front passage though.

That it got right on 2/29

[NEJeremy]

I'm thinking the NWS forecast of 2-4" here is probably going to be pretty accurate. Snow really gets going too far east for here. At least this will be melted in a day and before Easter this weekend.

[Geos]

I'm thinking the NWS forecast of 2-4" here is probably going to be pretty accurate. Snow really gets going too far east for here. At least this will be melted in a day and before Easter this weekend.

 

EURO says not so fast. Has snow in your area for Easter. 

 

[james1976]

Wow Euro! I figured it would go north like everything else. Very interesting.

[Geos]

Wow Euro! I figured it would go north like everything else. Very interesting.

 

A wobble north, but still in the southern camp. Are you in that 20" area on that map above?

 

The high that slides across northern Ontario has plenty of snow cover to keep it cold.

 

[Money]

I do find it interesting how far south gfs ensembles are compared to the op. They have been locked in together the last couple days

[gosaints]

Srefs locked in on green bay

[hlcater]

EURO says not so fast. Has snow in your area for Easter. 

 

Easter and 24th snow.png

Is that 2nd storm only or both together?

[Money]

Nearly every gfs ensemble on the psu site has the low farther south than the op gfs and quite a bit colder

[gosaints]

Nearly every gfs ensemble on the psu site has the low farther south than the op gfs and quite a bit colder

Riding the EURO??