2-19/2-21 Great Lakes Winter Storm...Heavy Rain/Flooding and Snow

[Sciascia]

No way, I just went out side and measured 12" in the same spot that has sun from the morning till 3pm. Lost 2" or so today.

Guy claims ORD had 14" at 12z & now has 9" at 0z. Not saying he's necessarily right, but he's usually able to find ORD stats. So I'm not gonna discount him immediately.

[Money]

Hmmm.

 

HRW-NMM 850 MB temps at HR 45 (21z THU)

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045&image=data%2Fhrw-nmm%2F00%2Fhrw-nmm_eus_045_850_temp_ht.gif&model=hrw-nmm-eus&area=eus&param=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140219+00+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area

[Money]

Just to compare that model to the GFS. GFS has the 850 0 line from LSE to N of GB.

 

That model has the 850 line at MKE at the same time period. Pretty drastic differences for a storm 2 days out.

[Sciascia]

Snow is not a realistic possibility here. But what is a realistic possibility is a dry-ish slot. That would be able to save us from disastrous flooding.

[Money]

0z UKMET: 983 MB over DBQ lol

[East Dubzz]

0z UKMET: 983 MB over DBQ lol

I don't want that. That's dry slot me likely and keep all my moisture limited. If it's gonna do that, I want it further NW so I could see some convection or something interesting.

[Money]

So recap of the models at HR 48

 

NAM: 985.8 MB near Walworth

GFS: 984 MB near the Dells

RGEM: 987 MB E of MKE

GGEM: 989 MB near Walworth

UKMET: 983 MB near DBQ

HRW-NMM: 986 MB near Pontiac IL

HRW-ARW: 990 MB near Rockford IL or so

[Money]

Met on American:

 

Most of the 8-14" of snow that fell from DC to the NYC metro last Weds night through Thursday night was intense WAA driven snows Weds night into Thurs AM. Combo of wet bulbing initially and dynamic cooling kept the column supportive of mostly snow until the warmer air finally overcame. The 00z sounding last Thursday evening at OKX on central LI registered 7c at 850 mb. 

It'll be interesting to see if the NAM is legit with this wet bulbing/dynamic cooling set-up. GFS will not do as well picking up on this but its last 2 runs were hinting at it over northern IL and southern WI. 

[Money]

GB VFR

 

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR CENTRAL/NORTH- CENTRAL
WISCONSIN... 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. FOR THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE
LAKE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW...THEN BECOME MIXED WITH
OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT PROJECTIONS...IT
WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO
THE LAKE...BUT CONVECTION COULD CHANGE IT OVER TO HEAVY SNOW.

[dubuque473]

[Money]

0z ECMWF HR 48:

 

987 over Sheboygan, WI 

[Sciascia]

0z ECMWF HR 48:

 

987 over Sheboygan, WI 

That positioning makes me think this run will show a big flood maker over here.

[Tom]

00z Euro...not showing the heavy rains

[Sciascia]

00z Euro...not showing the heavy rains

If I have to have rain, I'd happily take that.

[Money]

All rain I am assuming for S and E/C WI?

[dubuque473]

1/2 inch here in February with frost depth over 60" would be a heavy rain

[Money]

6z NAM is even colder than 0z NAM.

 

Interesting...

[DominicR]

6z NAM is even colder than 0z NAM.

 

Interesting...

 

Yeah and furthur SE. Takes SLP just east of Chicago southern tip of LM as it looks in instantweathermaps.

[Money]

989 over E S. LM. Farther SE and gives S. WI warning type snowfall

[DominicR]

Good hit for DBQ-Madison and up to Green Bay. Heck not to far from here.

[Money]

Yeah and furthur SE. Takes SLP just east of Chicago southern tip of LM as it looks in instantweathermaps.

 

Yup. .8-1 + QPF across most of MKE CWA that's frozen.

 

Should be an interesting forecast discussion. All the hi-res model showed a farther SE track too. Usually they are the farthest NW.

[Money]

So we got GFS/UKMET with sub 980 over or N. of DBQ and we have RGEM/HRW NNM/NAM all taking it to Milwaukee/Chicago area with the ECMWF in-between. 

[DominicR]

Nice...

[Money]

SREF Plumes increased a bit from its last run. 6+ members showing 6+ here compared to 21z which had 1. Mean is up to 3.8 from 2.6 in its earlier run.

 

Shows 1.1 in MKE for Mean with 2 members showing 7+. 21z had 0 members showing more than 4 inches.

 

DBQ: 

 

21z:

 

Mean: 1.94

 

Highest: 4.84

 

Lowest: 0.01

 

03z:

 

Mean: 3.86

 

Highest: 9.83 (7 showing 6+)

 

Lowest: 0.23

[gosaints]

Could be a last minute southeast adjustment. Still time to go back the other way. Seasonal trends would favor the se guidance but this is a different type of storm than we have seen this season as well.

[Money]

Could be a last minute southeast adjustment. Still time to go back the other way. Seasonal trends would favor the se guidance but this is a different type of storm than we have seen this season as well.

 

GB AFD mentioned the other day how models have a tough time with phasing systems. Could be seeing that come into play. Not sure which one to lean towards right now. NAM has been very good overall the last few months and it has a better time with handling dynamic cooling compared to lower resolution models. But it still is the NAM lol

[DominicR]

SREF Plumes increased a bit from its last run. 6+ members showing 6+ here compared to 21z which had 1. Mean is up to 3.8 from 2.6 in its earlier run.

 

Shows 1.1 in MKE for Mean with 2 members showing 7+. 21z had 0 members showing more than 4 inches.

 

DBQ: 

 

21z:

 

Mean: 1.94

 

Highest: 4.84

 

Lowest: 0.01

 

03z:

 

Mean: 3.86

 

Highest: 9.83 (7 showing 6+)

 

Lowest: 0.23

 

East Dubzz and Debuque gonna be happy to hear that. Another adjustment and Chicago-MKE might be in game but not holding my breath here.

[Money]

WPC giving Chicago a 70-80% chance of receiving >.10 FZR

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?ftype=probabilities&fpd=48&ptype=icez

 

This should be interesting..

 

Snow with areas of blowing snow before midnight, then snow likely with areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 18. Windy, with a southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west 20 to 30 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

[gosaints]

Rgem looks warmer then the nam through 36 at least . Hopefully the 12z runs start to dial in

[Money]

Rgem looks warmer then the nam through 36 at least . Hopefully the 12z runs start to dial in

 

 

yup, it's stronger/nw it looks like. Amazing the model differences within 36 hours of the event. We aren't talking minor differences either. 

[gosaints]

Rgem is a bomb...

[Money]

LOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

ILZ010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-191730-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FA.A.0001.140220T0900Z-140220T1800Z/
/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-
KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-
BENTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...
CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...
PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...
RENSSELAER...FOWLER
321 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014 /421 AM EST WED FEB 19 2014/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN ILLINOIS...COOK...DE KALB...
DUPAGE...FORD...GRUNDY...IROQUOIS...KANE...KANKAKEE...
KENDALL...LA SALLE...LEE...LIVINGSTON AND WILL. IN INDIANA...
BENTON...JASPER...LAKE IN...NEWTON AND PORTER.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW...FROZEN GROUND AND RAINFALL OF
A HALF INCH TO LOCALLY AN INCH AND A HALF LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING.

* HIGH STANDING WATER AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE
AND FLOOD PRONE LOW LYING AREAS. SIGNIFICANT RISES AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

[Money]

GFS is similar to the 00z run.

 

MKE going with WAA until 12 PM Thursday for FZR/SN and a WSW for Green Lake/Dells area for 2-4 inches of snow + 50 mph winds

 

IT CAN/T BE EMPHASIZED ENOUGH HOW COMPLEX AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS THIS STORM IS. WE WILL BE SITTING VERY CLOSE TO
TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS THAT DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND THE
FINAL TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. A SLIGHT DEVIATION
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SOME AREAS. IF IT GOES FARTHER
EAST...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY BE THE TARGET FOR THE HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST AND IT/S A
WARMER SCENARIO. PLEASE REMAIN ALERT FOR LATER UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.

[gosaints]

La crosse throws up blizzard warnings

[gosaints]

Wow does the gFS bomb out northern wisconsin going to have some crazy snow depths

[DominicR]

This is a quick mover so I am not expecting flooding to be too severe but with such snow depth it is def a concern considering i had people stranded in streets the last 2 floods last spring.

[james1976]

nam is weird. i dont buy it. 
im in a blizzard warning.....5-9" with 50mph wind gusts potential.

[East Dubzz]

Interesting run from the NAM. If other models had started to do that, I would have gotten a little excited. But it's the only model that is really even close at all to putting me in the good zone, so just throw that run out, NAM must be on some crack or something.

[DominicR]

DSM northward looking sweet. Calling for 5-9 inches or more. La Cross calling for 8-12 inches.

[East Dubzz]

I have a feeling some of those amounts are going to bust. Not many models support that much snow to begin with until you get into furthermore north Minnesota or Wisconsin, and ratios will probably be crap with low temps and high winds.